IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2026/218: Fear and Shortages: Identifying Geopolitical Risk and Supply Disruptions in Energy Markets

Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Régis Kouassi, Jianhong Liu, Joseph Moussa, Jean-Marc Natal, Andrea Paloschi and Evgenia Weaver

2026/217: Education and the Decline in Average Hours Worked

Mauricio Vargas

2026/216: Does Foreign Borrowing Lift Growth?

Marijn Bolhuis, Tobias Krahnke and Papa N'Diaye

2026/215: How Do Monetary Authorities Buy Publicly Traded Financial Assets? A Cross-Country Database and an Empirical Study of Central Bank Asset Purchase Programs

Zhongxia Zhang and Yuhua Cai

2026/214: Transmission of U.S. Long-term Rate to EM Local Currency Sovereign Bonds: The Role of the Investor Composition

Zixuan Huang and Xiang-Li Lim

2026/213: Earth Observations and Machine Learning for Gridded Macroeconomic Data

Marco Marini, Jim Tebrake and Andinet Woldemichael

2026/212: Beyond Clearing: Central Counterparties’ Investment and Risk Management of Cash from Margin Calls

Elisa Letizia, Pierpaolo Grippa and Franck Viollet

2026/211: International Stablecoin Flows, Capital Controls and Currency Crises

Marco Reuter

2026/210: The Demographics of Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth

Nils Lehr

2026/209: Corporate Sector Stress Testing with Endogenous Balance Sheet Dynamics

Marco Gross and Rui Xu

2026/208: Intangible Input Complementarities Along Supply Chains

Marvin Cardoza, Francesco Grigoli and Nicola Pierri

2026/207: EU Trade Diversification Through Regional Trade Agreements

Francesca Caselli, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta

2026/206: What Drives Policy Responses to the 2026 Energy Shock? First Evidence from the IMF Global Policy Tracker

Tohid Atashbar, Yidan Cheng, Leonardo Indraccolo, Jackson Mandel, Tiffany Munoz-Zegarra, Atsushi Oshima, Noor Rahman, Sergio Rodriguez, Sahra Sakha, Christoph Ungerer and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2026/205: Domestic Revenue Mobilization Across Emerging and Developing Countries: One Size Does Not Fit All

Elorm Darkey, Christian Ebeke, Anh Nguyen and Oral Williams

2026/204: Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Labor Productivity: Evidence from Patent Data

Kodjovi Eklou

2026/203: Offsetting the Demographic Drag? Endogenous Female Labor Supply in Latin American Economies

Camila Casas, Nicolas Gomez-Parra and Flavien Moreau

2026/202: Sectoral Complementarity and Political Alignment: Drivers of Greenfield FDI to Latin America

Alfredo Alvarado, Ding Ding and Yue Zhou

2026/201: Generative AI and the Limits of Productivity Measurement in the System of National Accounts

Jim Tebrake and Erich Stassner

2026/200: Global Taxation of Agriculture and Forestry

Maria Coelho, Thornton Matheson, Mengxi Xie and Yomna Gaafar

2026/199: What Matters for the Rise in Trade? Evidence from the African Continental Free Trade Area

Kiet Tuan Duong, Luu Duc Toan Huynh, Povilas Lastauskas and Nam Vu

2026/198: How Digital Lending Shapes Bank Risk and Competition: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Enrique Bátiz-Zuk, Anuar Bechara, Fabrizio López-Gallo and Corrado Macchiarelli

2026/197: Bonding Through Crises with NBFIs

Bruno Albuquerque and Melih Firat

2026/196: Deepening EU–Western Balkans Economic Integration: Scope and Economic Gains

Lev Ratnovski

2026/195: Ratings, Debt, and Deficits: An Exploration

Olivier Blanchard, Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra

2026/194: Barriers Within Borders: Internal Trade and Domestic Market Integration

Federico Diez, Trevor Tombe and Yuanchen Yang

2026/193: Too Much Yet Not Enough: Housing Segmentation and Household Consumption in China

Estelle Liu and Jibingxin Han

2026/192: Gross National Happiness, Cultural Norms, and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan

Sriram Balasubramanian and Paul Cashin

2026/191: From Departure to Development: How Emigration Shapes Human Capital and Growth in Pacific Island Countries

Ruifeng Zhang and Yue Zhou

2026/190: Relative Development and the Intelligence Divide: Human Capital, Technology Diffusion, and AI

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2026/189: Macroeconomics of War and Recovery

Hippolyte Balima, Colombe Ladreit, Andresa Helena Lagerborg, Flavien Moreau, Andrea Presbitero and Evgenia Weaver

2026/188: A Model of Macroeconomic Policies with Endogenously Insurable Exchange Rates

Suman Basu and Pablo Winant

2026/187: The Impact of Trade Payment Restrictions and Capital Controls on External Sector Balances

Adam Jakubik, Effie Karfaki, Tobias Krahnke, Wenjie Li, Anita Tuladhar and Chenyu Xu

2026/186: Demand for Dollars: Evidence from Survey Expectations

Benedikt Ballensiefen, Fabricius Somogyi and Hannah Winterberg

2026/185: Macroeconomic Impacts of China’s Energy Transition

Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Gregor Schwerhoff, Sneha Thube and Sha Yu

2026/184: Rethinking the Credit-Growth Nexus: New Credit Flows and Private Demand in the Euro Area

Jiri Podpiera

2026/183: Scalable Suppliers in Global Trade Networks

Brandon Tan

2026/182: Assessing the Impact of Restricting Skilled and Unskilled Migration: A General Equilibrium Approach

Alina Carare, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Jessie Kilembe and Felipe Leal

2026/181: Market Power in Mexican Industries

Francisco Arizala, Diana Ricciulli-Marin and Johanna Schauer

2026/180: Jurisdictional Capital and AI Regulation: Evidence from the EU AI Act

Yi Chen, Zhe Wang and Jing Zhou

2026/179: Riding the Global Financial Cycle: How Capital Flows into LICs

Alexei Miksjuk and Yipei Zhang

2026/178: Labor Productivity Growth in the Nordics: The Roles of Frontier Firms and Diffusion

Takuji Komatsuzaki and Théodore Renault

2026/177: Locked Out: Drivers and Economic Implications of Declining Housing Affordability in Europe

Robert Beyer, Nina Biljanovska, Alexandra Fotiou, Morgan Maneely and Frederik Toscani

2026/176: Aging Economies and AI Adoption: Firm-Level Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys

Ha Nguyen

2026/175: Private Finance and Climate Investment Needs: An Analytical Framework

Chen Chen, Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini, Annapurna Mitra and Henk Jan Reinders

2026/174: Measures of Macroeconomic Shocks and Uncertainty for Asia-Pacific Economies

Iris Claus and Leo Krippner

2026/173: Inferring Structural Beliefs from Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from Brazil

Philip Barrett

2026/172: Monetary–Fiscal Policy Interactions in Korea: A QPM-Based Analysis

Alexander Borodin, Matteo Ghilardi, Tommy Lee and Victoria Petrenko

2026/171: Public Debt, Wealth Inequality, and the Burden of Taxation

Moustafa Chatzouz

2026/170: Systemwide Stress Test at the IMF: Integrating Nonbank Financial Intermediary Risks

Hiroko Oura, Guillaume Arnould, Xiaodan Ding, Pierpaolo Grippa, Marco Gross, Dimitrios Laliotis, Mindaugas Leika, Caterina Lepore, Elisa Letizia, Laura Valderrama and Yuchen Zhang

2026/169: Global Dollar Exposure and Its Relationship with CIP Deviations

Zixuan Huang and Aki Yokoyama

2026/168: R-stars Across the Atlantic—The Role of Policy Expectations

Mátyás Farkas, Zoltan Jakab and Jesper Lindé

2026/167: Fiscal Populism and Monetary Policy Rules

Luis Jácome, Nicolas Magud, Samuel Pienknagura and Martin Uribe

2026/166: AI and Economic Divergence in Asia

Natasha Che, Weining Xin and Taichi Yoshida

2026/165: Explaining Income Divergence in the Western Indian Ocean: Evidence from Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar, and Comoros

Andrew Esparon, Aissatou Diallo and Mahamoud Islam

2026/164: Looking for Underlying Structure in WEO Forecasts

Yurii Sholomytskyi

2026/163: Commodity Booms, Productivity, and Misallocation: Evidence from Chile’s Administrative Data

Pablo Filippi, Ryan Kim, Nan Li, María Jesús Pérez and Younghun Shim

2026/162: Financial Shocks in Currency Markets: Evidence from UIP Premia

Ece Ozge Emeksiz, Andres Fernandez, Nikhil Patel, Ivan Petrella and Tatjana Schulze

2026/161: Creditors’ Seniority and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Debt Composition

Chiara Ferrero, Sansan Kambou and Kady Keita

2026/160: The Coming Great Repression? New Measures and a Century of Evidence

Marijn Bolhuis, Jakree Koosakul, Neil Shenai and Jie Yang

2026/159: Convergence from Above: When Global Catch-Up Reflects Falling Back

Patrick Imam

2026/158: Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia

Husnu Dalgic and Galip Kemal Ozhan

2026/157: The Generalized Jevons Paradox and the Future of Energy

William Oman, Etienne Espagne and Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

2026/156: Settlement Risk and Currency Markets

Seungduck Lee, Angelo Ranaldo and Tomohiro Tsuruga

2026/155: Industrial Policy and Trade Tensions in Strategic Sectors

Lorenzo Rotunno, Michele Ruta and Priyam Verma

2026/154: The Changing Landscape of Financial Integration in Asia-Pacific

Cristian Alonso, Tristan Hennig, Henry Hoyle, Haibo Li, Monica Petrescu, Ying Xu and Yizhi Xu

2026/153: Beyond the First Bond: Market Access and Debt Dynamics in Frontier Economies

Hasan Cetin and Sanan Mirzayev

2026/152: Taxing Cross-Border Services

Shafik Hebous, Brendan Crowley, Rasmi Das, Tibor Hanappi, Cory Hillier, Adam Jakubik, Eric Robert and Christophe Waerzeggers

2026/151: Closing the Gap: A LIC’s Policy Options Under an Aid Shock

Dawit Tessema and Sotima Koussere

2026/150: Graying Asia: How Aging Is Reshaping Banking

Haibo Li, Estelle Liu, Yinqiu Lu and Anne Oeking

2026/149: Tariff Pass-Through and Import Reallocation

JaeBin Ahn, Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2026/148: Pumps and Plates: Passthrough of International Fuel and Food Price Shocks to Domestic Markets

Huy Nguyen and Celine Thevenot

2026/147: Aggregate Gains from AI and Their Distribution: Global Evidence from Usage Data

Rachel Yuting Fan and Ha Nguyen

2026/146: What Drives Crypto Mining? Evidence from Hardware Imports

Andras Komaromi, Federico Grinberg, Diego Cerdeiro and Yang Liu

2026/145: Repo Rate Dynamics: The Role of Dealers, Hedge Funds, and Issuance

Kleopatra Nikolaou

2026/144: Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

Brandon Tan

2026/143: Competition and Productivity in Middle East and Central Asia: What Role Do Tariffs Play?

Walid Faris, Etibar Jafarov and Umang Rawat

2026/142: Should Oil Economies Worry About Oil Shocks’ Impact on the Banking System? The Case of Oman

Yurii Sholomytskyi, Nathaniel Butler Blondel and Mumtaz Hussain

2026/141: Pricing Reform Progress: Evidence from Sovereign Spreads and Consensus Forecasts

Ken Miyajima

2026/140: Frontier Markets: Analyzing Drivers of Market Growth and Sovereign Risks

Younes Takki Chebihi, Naoya Kato, Maxwell Kushnir, Andreja Lenarcic, Yinhao Sun and Bilal Tabti

2026/139: Sovereign Risk and Natural Disaster Shocks: Unraveling the Domestic Yield Curve Response

Kangni Kpodar, Alassane Drabo and Carine Meyimdjui

2026/138: Resilience by Design: What Role Can Policy Frameworks Play in the Middle East and Central Asia?

Hasan Dudu, Troy Matheson, Dirk Muir, Karmen Naidoo, Salem Nechi and Pedro Rodriguez

2026/137: Credit Expansion in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Etibar Jafarov and Chingis Matayev

2026/136: Financial Market Infrastructures Evolution in a Tokenized Economy: Exploring blockchain implementation options for issuance, central clearing, settlement, and reporting

Yaiza Cabedo, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Fabian Schär and Nicolas Zhang

2026/135: Upgrading the Global Financial Safety Net: Implications of a Synthetic Reserve Deposit

Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Pascal Farahmand, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Istvan Mak, Adrian Peralta-Alva and Francisco Roldán

2026/134: Assessing Macrofinancial Linkages in China Using a Machine-Learned Parsimonious VAR Model

Jin-Chuan Duan, Dimitrios Laliotis and Wei Sun

2026/133: Central Bank Communication in Times of Uncertainty: AI-assisted Decoding of Recent Trends in Europe

Francesca Caselli, Luisa Charry, Larry Cui, Pragyan Deb, Allan Dizioli, Alexandra Fotiou, Ben Park and Sebastian Weber

2026/132: Brazil's VAT Reform: Improving Equity

Ana Cebreiro Gomez and Christina Kolerus

2026/131: Optimal Currency Basket Estimation

Etienne Vaccaro-Grange

2026/130: The Political Economy of Foreign Exchange Interventions

Kodjovi Eklou

2026/129: Stablecoins and Macroeconomic Stability: A DSGE Investigation

Hui He, Yao Zhao and Dayong Zhou

2026/128: Climate Shocks, Debt Defaults and Investment in Climate Adaptation – Squaring an Impossible Trilemma

Constance de Soyres, Emmanuella Obeng and Joanne Tan

2026/127: Production Networks and the (Asymmetric) Transmission of Monetary Policy

Francesco Grigoli

2026/126: Minimum Wages and the Informality Constraint

Nils Lehr, Johanna Schauer and Hugo Tuesta

2026/125: Long-term Effects of US Tariff Increases on CAPDR

Alexander Subramaniam Beames

2026/124: The (Many) Consequences of the Housing Affordability Problem in the EU: A Machine-Learning Empirical Analysis

Jean-Jacques Hallaert and Iglika Vassileva

2026/123: Barriers to a European Banking Union

Damien Capelle, Adriano Fernandes, J.J. Kruger and Peter McAdam

2026/122: Targeting State Aid: Firm-level Evidence from France

Xun Li and Maryam Vaziri

2026/121: HANK-Based Fiscal Consolidation for a High-Debt Advanced Euro Area Economy

Gee Hee Hong, Naowar Mohiuddin, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Danila Smirnov and Maryam Vaziri

2026/120: Wage Dynamics in Europe: Drivers, Institutional Amplifiers, and Policy Spillovers

Kareem Ismail, Ana Lariau and Théodore Renault

2026/119: Central Clearing for Government Securities Repos: A CCP-Centric Perspective

Ismael Boudiaf