IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2026/084: Bank Loans, Trade Credit and Export Prices: Evidence from Exchange Rate Shocks in China

George Cui, Xiaosheng Guo and Leticia Juarez

2026/083: Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries

Fabien Gonguet, Xuehui Han, Choonsung Lim, To-Nhu Dao and Saraf Nawar

2026/082: Reduced Profitability of Green Bond Issuance: Evidence from China

Yilin Cai, Meng Feng, Yueming (Lucy) Qiu and Yi David Wang

2026/081: Bank Lending Margins and The Exchange Rate Uncertainty Channel

Sneha Agrawal

2026/080: Growth-Indexed Bonds and Debt Distribution: Too Little, Too Costly?

Julien Acalin

2026/079: Wagner in the Balkans? A Comparative Analysis of Government Size and Economic Growth

Serhan Cevik and Sharayah Dominguez

2026/078: Lean and Just? Social Protection Spending and Inequality Outcomes across Europe

Alex Pienkowski, Valentina Semenova, Ian Stuart and Yuntian Lu

2026/077: Digital Treasury Reform and Fiscal Efficiency: Evaluating Costa Rica’s SUPRES Platform Adoption

Maria Chiara Cavalleri, Ivania García-Cascante, Andualem Mengistu, Andualem Mengistu, Gerardo Uña and Mona Wang

2026/076: Welfare Analysis of Income-Stabilization Policies in a HANK Model with Unemployment Risk

Stefano Grancini, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Danila Smirnov

2026/075: Benchmarking Dynamically Stable Public Debt Trajectories for Low-Income Countries

Plamen Iossifov, Ali Abbas and Lennart Niermann

2026/074: Making Stablecoins Stable

Bo Li, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Marcello Miccoli, Brandon Tan and Longmei Zhang

2026/073: Macroeconomic Effects of Rare Earths Supply Chain Disruptions

Christian Bogmans, Maximiliano Jerez-Osses, Jorge Alberto Miranda Pinto and Jean-Marc Natal

2026/072: Industrial Policy and Supply Chain Bottlenecks in Critical Minerals: Evidence from Rare Earth Elements

Christian Bogmans, Francis Cuadros-Bloch, Jean-Marc Natal and Andrea Paloschi

2026/071: Labor Supply Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Australian Mortgage Holders

Mitali Das, Jonathan Hambur, Klaus-Peter Hellwig and John Spray

2026/070: Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations - Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels

Robert Beyer, Hui Tong and Xinbei Zhou

2026/069: Military Spending and Crowding-Out Effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Antonio David, Elisee Wendlassida Miningou, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Makoto Tanaka and Alex Vaval Pierre-Charles

2026/068: Do Capital Controls Slow Cross-Border Payments in the Last Mile? Preliminary Evidence

Alisa DiCaprio, Marcello Miccoli, Philip Montalvao, Andrew Usher and Jeanne Verrier

2026/067: Global Imbalances, Industrial Policy and Tariffs

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Manasa Patnam, Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2026/066: Household Behavior under Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures

Jaunius Karmelavičius and Julia Otten

2026/065: The Impact of House Prices on Internal Migration: Case of Spain

Ha Nguyen, Ashwini Arulrajhan, Carlo Pizzinelli and Ippei Shibata

2026/064: Information, Social Media and International Trade Theory and Evidence Using Twenty Million Online Postings

George Cui and Kailin Gao

2026/063: Institutions for Industrial Policy: The Foundation of Economic Development

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Gary Xie

2026/062: The Rise of Cyber Events and Digital Fraud in the Financial Sector

Tanai Khiaonarong and Shanyuan Zheng

2026/061: Network Valuation in Euro Area Syndicated and Interbank Loan Markets

Andre Santos

2026/060: Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Disentangling Quantities from Prices

Andres Fernandez and Alejandro Vicondoa

2026/059: Tax on Inflation Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

Damien Capelle and Yang Liu

2026/058: The Credibility Premium: Central Bank Independence and Local-Currency Sovereign Yields

Adrian Alter, Julia Bersch, Albert Touna Mama and Bright Quaye

2026/057: Imperfect Information, Composition of Demand Shocks, and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve

Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti

2026/056: Stablecoin Inflows and Spillovers to FX Markets

Iñaki Aldasoro, Paula Beltran and Federico Grinberg

2026/055: Fiscal Forecast Errors in East Africa: Nature, Drivers, and Policy Implications

Youssouf Kiendrebeogo and Barima Gyesaw

2026/054: Explaining Latin America’s Decreasing Skilled Wage Premium: Supply, Directed Technical Change, and Demand

Alberto Behar

2026/053: Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Defense Spending

Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra, Anh Nguyen, Ana Sofia Pessoa and Alexandre Sollaci

2026/052: Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets

Alexander Copestake, Cage Englander, Maria Martinez Peria and Germán Villegas-Bauer

2026/051: Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds

Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos Guevara, Justin Lesniak and Flora Lutz

2026/050: Tackling the Cost of Living in the Bahamas: A Trade Diversification Perspective

Julien Acalin

2026/049: Nowcasting Growth Using the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model: Application to Tanzania

Sunwoo Lee

2026/048: Nowcasting World Trade with a Multi-Region Factor Model

Chris Jackson and Daniel Greenwood

2026/047: Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost Patent Applications?

Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2026/046: The EU’s Energy Transition

Benjamin Carton, Geoffroy Dolphin, Romain Duval, Andrew Hodge, Amit Kara, Simon Voigts and Sebastian Wende

2026/045: Eroding Participation in Labor Force Surveys: Evidence, Drivers and Solutions

Eurydice Fotopoulou, Lamya Kejji, Vladimir Klyuev and Mpumelelo Nxumalo

2026/044: Stablecoin Shocks

Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat, Martina Hengge and Takaaki Sagawa

2026/043: AI Meets Fiscal Policy: Mapping Government Spending Actions Across 64 Countries

Shuvam Das, Davide Furceri, Nikhil Patel and Adrian Peralta-Alva

2026/042: Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Redistribution

Monica Tran-Xuan

2026/041: Towards Achieving Sustained Economic Growth in Small Developing States: A Primer on Belize

Ziad Amer, Jiajia Gu, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada (Mos) Laoprapassorn and Shane Lowe

2026/040: The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence from Governor Transitions

Marijn Bolhuis, Rui Mano and Hedda Thorell

2026/039: The Long-term Effects of Crime: From Individual Concerns to Macroeconomic Consequences

Ursula Berresheim, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2026/038: The Catalytic Impact of Resilience and Sustainability Arrangements

Yoro Diallo, Patricia Escalante, Linda Kaltani, Tümer Kapan, Friederike Langowski and Dan Nyberg

2026/037: Tilting the Balance Towards Equity: Capital Controls and the Structure of External Liabilities

Tobias Krahnke and Wenjie Li

2026/036: A Novel Quarterly Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework: Illustration on the Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Tibor Hlédik, Rilind Kabashi, Maria Arakelyan, Belma Colakovic and Elma Hasanović

2026/035: How Effectively Can Current LLMs Analyze Macrofinancial Issues?

Paola Ganum and Tohid Atashbar

2026/034: Cadasters, Asset Tangibility, and Growth

Can Sever

2026/033: Risk Propagation in the European Banking System: Amplification Effect from NBFIs and Market Risks

Laura Valderrama and Richard Varghese

2026/032: Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain Kabundi, Cedric Okou and Antonio Spilimbergo

2026/031: Who Pays When Tax Administration Improves? Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Responses to Georgia’s Large Taxpayer Office

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Mikheil Chikviladze, Mitali Das, Elguja Loliashvili and Mona Wang

2026/030: Optimal Exchange Rate Policy with Oil Shocks

Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi

2026/029: Intermediation, Interrupted? Bank-Level Analysis of Interest Spreads in Montenegro

Serhan Cevik and Amit Kara

2026/028: Sowing Seeds of Mobility: The Uneven Impact of Land Reform

Ting Chen, Jiajia Gu, L. Rachel Ngai and Jin Wang

2026/027: Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China

Boele Bonthuis, Yongquan Cao and Christoph Freudenberg

2026/026: From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu and Xinrui Zhao

2026/025: Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

Mustapha Abderrahim, Riad Mansouri, Fatma Zohra Ouail, Sara Abadi, Kenza Elkrim, Mohamed-Fariz Zidane, Philippe Karam, Gyorgy Molnar, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

2026/024: Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-Leste

Kohei Asao and Raju Huidrom

2026/023: Banking on Nonbanks

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat and Benedikt Kagerer

2026/022: Distributional Impacts of Inflation Accounting for Behavioral Effects and Real Assets

Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico-Mejia, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Alberto Tumino

2026/021: Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure of Capital Flow Management

Wenjie Li

2026/020: Nowcasting Economic Growth with Machine Learning and Satellite Data

Eurydice Fotopoulou, Iyke Maduako, M. Belen Sbrancia and Prachi Srivastava

2026/019: Taste-based Investing, Government Policies and Competition in Financial Intermediation

Damien Capelle

2026/018: Still Packing a Punch: Monetary Policy Transmission in a New Cross-Country High-Frequency Dataset

Ece Ozge Emeksiz, Güneş Kamber, Julia Otten and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

2026/017: U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account: Unpacking Trade and Financial Channels

Adam Jakubik and Yuting Wei

2026/016: Motivating Capital Controls: Evidence from New Measures of Capital Flow Restrictions

Chikako Baba, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim Darbar, Annamaria Kokenyne and Viktoriya Zotova

2026/015: The Welfare Implications of Job Retention Schemes

John Bluedorn, Jorge Mondragon, Ippei Shibata and Marina Mendes Tavares

2026/014: Structural Reforms in Saudi Arabia Since 2016

David Koll, Andrea Medici, Marina Mendes Tavares and Masashi Saito

2026/013: Understanding China’s 2024–25 Frontloading from the Lens of Product-Level Export Baskets

Jason Lu and Dimitre Milkov

2026/012: The Fiscal Multipliers Narrative of Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khalil Bechchani, Antonio David and Thibault Lemaire

2026/011: A Narrative Fiscal Consolidation Dataset for Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khalil Bechchani, Antonio David and Thibault Lemaire

2026/010: Market Access and High Spread Issuances

Raphael Espinoza, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luis Carlos Ibanez-Thomae and Flora Lutz

2026/009: Who Captures Export Windfalls? Exchange Rates, Export Profitability, and National Saving under Dominant-Currency Pricing

Bas Bakker

2026/008: Financial Inclusion, Credit Booms, and Financial Stability Risk

Adolfo Barajas, Kensuke Sakamoto and Rasool Zandvakil

2026/007: Fintech Competition and Banks’ Shrinking Margins in Brazil

Rui Xu

2026/006: Services Inflation and the Exchange Rate in Türkiye

Tara Iyer, Agustin Roitman and James Walsh

2026/005: From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin

Marco Gross and Richard Senner

2026/004: The Nuanced Role of Government Credit in Monetary Policy Transmission

Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Leila Aghabarari and Bernardus Van Doornik

2026/003: A Silver Lining? The European Energy Crisis through the Lens of Directed Technical Change

Ting Lan, Manasa Patnam, Frederik Toscani and Claire Li

2026/002: The Integration of Global Value Chain in the EU: Stylized Facts and Drivers

Younghun Shim, Iglika Vassileva and Mengxue Wang

2026/001: The Economic Implications of the Energy Transition in Asia-Pacific

John Spray, Sneha Thube and Alice Tianbo Zhang

2025/270: Underpriced and Overused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update

Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia Huitron, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa and Nate Vernon-Lin

2025/269: Financial Constraints and the Effectiveness of Green Financial Policies

Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, Germán Villegas-Bauer and Sharan Banerjee

2025/268: Nowcasting GCC GDP: A Machine Learning Solution for Enhanced Non-Oil GDP Prediction

Greta Polo, Yuan Gao Rollinson, Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Tongfang Yuan

2025/267: Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World

Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem Nechi and Subi Suvetha Velkumar

2025/266: Brazil's VAT Reform: Ensuring Revenue Neutrality

Ana Cebreiro Gomez, Christina Kolerus, Guilherme Dal Pizzol, Pablo Moreira and Miguel Pecho

2025/265: Stuck in the Middle with You? An Assessment of Income Dynamics in Indonesia

Florischa Tresnatri, Akbar Nikmatullah Dachlan, Galuh Chandra Wibowo and Rifat Pasha

2025/264: Cyclical Inequality in the Cost of Living and Implications for Monetary Policy

Ting Lan, Lerong Li and Minghao Li

2025/263: Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling

Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma and Petia Topalova

2025/262: Changes in Bank Lending Standards and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal, Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush, Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene and Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun

2025/261: Optimal FX Interventions with Limited Reserves

Marcin Kolasa, Oliver Vogt and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/260: Can Healthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from Korea

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Helena Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Kemal Ozhan

2025/259: Reforms to Reduce China’s High Household Savings

Yizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui and Ding Hua

2025/258: Speaking to the Markets: The Role of IMF Announcements in Investors’ Confidence

Beatrice Maryline Sagna and Solo Zerbo

2025/257: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area

Giovanni Sciacovelli

2025/256: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?

Marijn Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea Presbitero and Zhao Zhang

2025/255: Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence

Michael Barczay, Shafik Hebous, Fayçal Sawadogo and Jean-François Wen