IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2026/142: Should Oil Economies Worry About Oil Shocks’ Impact on the Banking System? The Case of Oman

Yurii Sholomytskyi, Nathaniel Butler Blondel and Mumtaz Hussain

2026/141: Pricing Reform Progress: Evidence from Sovereign Spreads and Consensus Forecasts

Ken Miyajima

2026/140: Frontier Markets: Analyzing Drivers of Market Growth and Sovereign Risks

Younes Takki Chebihi, Naoya Kato, Maxwell Kushnir, Andreja Lenarcic, Yinhao Sun and Bilal Tabti

2026/139: Sovereign Risk and Natural Disaster Shocks: Unraveling the Domestic Yield Curve Response

Kangni Kpodar, Alassane Drabo and Carine Meyimdjui

2026/138: Resilience by Design: What Role Can Policy Frameworks Play in the Middle East and Central Asia?

Hasan Dudu, Troy Matheson, Dirk Muir, Karmen Naidoo, Salem Nechi and Pedro Rodriguez

2026/137: Credit Expansion in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Etibar Jafarov and Chingis Matayev

2026/136: Financial Market Infrastructures Evolution in a Tokenized Economy

Yaiza Cabedo, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Fabian Schär and Nicolas Zhang

2026/135: Upgrading the Global Financial Safety Net: Implications of a Synthetic Reserve Deposit

Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Pascal Farahmand, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Istvan Mak, Adrian Peralta-Alva and Francisco Roldan

2026/134: Assessing Macrofinancial Linkages in China Using a Machine-Learned Parsimonious VAR Model

Jin-Chuan Duan, Dimitrios Laliotis and Wei Sun

2026/133: Central Bank Communication in Times of Uncertainty: AI-assisted Decoding of Recent Trends in Europe

Francesca Caselli, Luisa Charry, Larry Cui, Pragyan Deb, Allan Dizioli, Alexandra Fotiou, Ben Park and Sebastian Weber

2026/132: Brazil's VAT Reform: Improving Equity

Ana Cebreiro Gomez and Christina Kolerus

2026/131: Optimal Currency Basket Estimation

Etienne Vaccaro-Grange

2026/130: The Political Economy of Foreign Exchange Interventions

Kodjovi Eklou

2026/129: Stablecoins and Macroeconomic Stability: A DSGE Investigation

Hui He, Yao Zhao and Dayong Zhou

2026/128: Climate Shocks, Debt Defaults and Investment in Climate Adaptation – Squaring an Impossible Trilemma

Constance de Soyres, Emmanuella Obeng and Joanne Tan

2026/127: Production Networks and the (Asymmetric) Transmission of Monetary Policy

Francesco Grigoli

2026/126: Minimum Wages and the Informality Constraint

Nils Lehr, Johanna Schauer and Hugo Tuesta

2026/125: Long-term Effects of US Tariff Increases on CAPDR

Alexander Subramaniam Beames

2026/124: The (Many) Consequences of the Housing Affordability Problem in the EU: A Machine-Learning Empirical Analysis

Jean-Jacques Hallaert and Iglika Vassileva

2026/123: Barriers to a European Banking Union

Damien Capelle, Adriano Fernandes, J.J. Kruger and Peter McAdam

2026/122: Targeting State Aid: Firm-level Evidence from France

Xun Li and Maryam Vaziri

2026/121: HANK-Based Fiscal Consolidation for a High-Debt Advanced Euro Area Economy

Gee Hee Hong, Naowar Mohiuddin, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Danila Smirnov and Maryam Vaziri

2026/120: Wage Dynamics in Europe: Drivers, Institutional Amplifiers, and Policy Spillovers

Kareem Ismail, Ana Lariau and Théodore Renault

2026/119: Central Clearing for Government Securities Repos: A CCP-Centric Perspective

Ismael Boudiaf

2026/118: ASEAN’s Trade and Investment in a Fragmented World

Giovanni Donato and Emmanouil Kitsios

2026/117: Decoding Fiscal Messaging: How G7 Finance Ministries Communicate

Tatiana Evdokimova and Patrick Imam

2026/116: Innovation, Human Capital, and Taxation: Evidence from a Structural Model of the Canadian Economy

Sandra Valentina Lizarazo

2026/115: Persistent Temperature, Capital Structure, and the Long-Run Level of Output

Ha Nguyen

2026/114: The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility: Experience and Lessons for the Next Multiannual Financial Framework

Matthias Busse, Francesca Caselli and Alexandra Fotiou

2026/113: The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Trends, Determinants, and Macrofinancial Implications

Torsten Wezel, Zulma Barrail and Salim Dehmej

2026/112: Drivers of Germany’s Growth Downturn

Harri Kemp

2026/111: Political Fragility: The Economic Impact of Coups d’État

Luc Tucker and Idrissa Aladji Aya

2026/110: Peer Pressure: How Relative Debt Drives Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads

Carmen Avila-Yiptong, Georges Hatcherian and Mahamoud Islam

2026/109: There Will Be Liquidity! But Will There Be Transmission?

Gregorio Impavido and Shuyu Wang

2026/108: Leveraging Non-traditional Data for Macroeconomic Nowcasting: The Case of Morocco

Dina Hamed

2026/107: Nowcasting Low-Income Countries Through Global Linkages

Omer Faruk Akbal and Domenico Giannone

2026/106: The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters: Evidence From A Novel Global Dataset Over 1970-2023

Ha Nguyen, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles and Alice Tianbo Zhang

2026/105: Class Discipline, Class Size and Scholastic Achievement Across Countries: A Theoretical and Empirical View of Educational Production

Noam Gruber

2026/104: What Explains Timely Repayments to the IMF? The Roles of Policy Reforms and Borrower Fundamentals

Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Chiara Ferrero, Kalika Likhi and Andrew Swiston

2026/103: One Global Shock, Many Inflation Paths: Explaining Post-COVID Inflation Divergence

Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan

2026/102: Monetary Policy Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Emerging and Frontier Markets

Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana and Kiswendsida Tougouma

2026/101: A New Wave of Industrial Policy in Asia-Pacific: Could Resurgence lead to Structural Transformation?

Paula Arias, Vanya Georgieva, Rahul Giri, Maria González-Miranda, Ashique Habib, Anne-Charlotte Paret, Tatjana Schulze, Arthur Xie, Weining Xin, Yichen Xu and Dilan Yang

2026/100: Robust Inference Via Heteroskedasticity in Linear Models

Omer Faruk Akbal and Max-Sebastian Dovi

2026/099: Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch

Serkan Arslanalp, Oliver Exton, Chang Gao, Mario Saraiva, Parisa Kamali, Alessandra Sozzi and Jasper Verschuur

2026/098: Expanding the Landscape of Cross-Border Flow Restrictions: Modern Tools and Historical Perspectives

Katharina Bergant, Andres Fernandez, Ken Teoh and Martin Uribe

2026/097: The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?

Paul Beaudry, Thomas Carter and Amartya Lahiri

2026/096: When Policy Bites: State-Dependent Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets

Lucyna Gornicka, Sumaiyah Mirza, Vina Nguyen and Jerome Vandenbussche

2026/095: Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint

JaeBin Ahn, Nalisa Marieatte, Philipp-Leo Mengel, David Moore, Josefine Quast, Qingyu Tao and Hou Wang

2026/094: Systemic Banking Crises Database: 1970-2025

Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia

2026/093: Capital Holdup, Job Creation, and Skill Supply under Search Frictions

Shisham Adhikari and Si Guo

2026/092: Fiscal Decentralization and Cyclicality in Latin America: Evidence from a New Regional Budget Database

Davi Bhering Buarque de Gusmao, Hector Perez-Saiz, Joe Ue and Valeria Visser

2026/091: The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Post-Disaster IMF Financing: Evidence from a Synthetic Control Approach

Pedro Juarros and Junko Mochizuki

2026/090: The Role of Budget Support in Growth and Adjustment: Evidence from One Hundred IMF-Supported Programs with Low-income Countries

Alexander Zaborovskiy

2026/089: Stress Tests of Euro Area Banks with Skewed Normal Credit Risk Distributions

Andre Santos

2026/088: Fiscal Policy and Labor Market Outcomes in Europe: Are the Balkans Different?

Serhan Cevik and Maja Ivanovic

2026/087: Granular Bank Shocks and Financial Intermediation in a Low-Income Economy

Ahmed-Amine El Azdi, Onur Ozlu and Felix Fischer

2026/086: Public Administration Digitalisation and Microenterprise Productivity in India

Somnath Sharma and Kenichi Ueda

2026/085: When Forecasts Meet Reality: Assessing Climate Damage Functions

Johannes Emmerling, Paul Waidelich, Matthieu Bellon and Emanuele Massetti

2026/084: Bank Loans, Trade Credit and Export Prices: Evidence from Exchange Rate Shocks in China

George Cui, Xiaosheng Guo and Leticia Juarez

2026/083: Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries

Fabien Gonguet, Xuehui Han, Choonsung Lim, To-Nhu Dao and Saraf Nawar

2026/082: Reduced Profitability of Green Bond Issuance: Evidence from China

Yilin Cai, Meng Feng, Yueming (Lucy) Qiu and Yi David Wang

2026/081: Bank Lending Margins and The Exchange Rate Uncertainty Channel

Sneha Agrawal

2026/080: Growth-Indexed Bonds and Debt Distribution: Too Little, Too Costly?

Julien Acalin

2026/079: Wagner in the Balkans? A Comparative Analysis of Government Size and Economic Growth

Serhan Cevik and Sharayah Dominguez

2026/078: Lean and Just? Social Protection Spending and Inequality Outcomes across Europe

Alex Pienkowski, Valentina Semenova, Ian Stuart and Yuntian Lu

2026/077: Digital Treasury Reform and Fiscal Efficiency: Evaluating Costa Rica’s SUPRES Platform Adoption

Maria Chiara Cavalleri, Ivania García-Cascante, Andualem Mengistu, Andualem Mengistu, Gerardo Uña and Mona Wang

2026/076: Welfare Analysis of Income-Stabilization Policies in a HANK Model with Unemployment Risk

Stefano Grancini, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Danila Smirnov

2026/075: Benchmarking Dynamically Stable Public Debt Trajectories for Low-Income Countries

Plamen Iossifov, Ali Abbas and Lennart Niermann

2026/074: Making Stablecoins Stable

Bo Li, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Marcello Miccoli, Brandon Tan and Longmei Zhang

2026/071: Labor Supply Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Australian Mortgage Holders

Mitali Das, Jonathan Hambur, Klaus-Peter Hellwig and John Spray

2026/070: Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations - Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels

Robert Beyer, Hui Tong and Xinbei Zhou

2026/069: Military Spending and Crowding-Out Effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Antonio David, Elisee Wendlassida Miningou, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Makoto Tanaka and Alex Vaval Pierre-Charles

2026/068: Do Capital Controls Slow Cross-Border Payments in the Last Mile? Preliminary Evidence

Alisa DiCaprio, Marcello Miccoli, Philip Montalvao, Andrew Usher and Jeanne Verrier

2026/067: Global Imbalances, Industrial Policy and Tariffs

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Manasa Patnam, Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2026/066: Household Behavior under Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures

Jaunius Karmelavičius and Julia Otten

2026/065: The Impact of House Prices on Internal Migration: Case of Spain

Ha Nguyen, Ashwini Arulrajhan, Carlo Pizzinelli and Ippei Shibata

2026/064: Information, Social Media and International Trade Theory and Evidence Using Twenty Million Online Postings

George Cui and Kailin Gao

2026/063: Institutions for Industrial Policy: The Foundation of Economic Development

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Gary Xie

2026/062: The Rise of Cyber Events and Digital Fraud in the Financial Sector

Tanai Khiaonarong and Shanyuan Zheng

2026/061: Network Valuation in Euro Area Syndicated and Interbank Loan Markets

Andre Santos

2026/060: Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Disentangling Quantities from Prices

Andres Fernandez and Alejandro Vicondoa

2026/059: Tax on Inflation Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

Damien Capelle and Yang Liu

2026/058: The Credibility Premium: Central Bank Independence and Local-Currency Sovereign Yields

Adrian Alter, Julia Bersch, Albert Touna Mama and Bright Quaye

2026/057: Imperfect Information, Composition of Demand Shocks, and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve

Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti

2026/056: Stablecoin Inflows and Spillovers to FX Markets

Iñaki Aldasoro, Paula Beltran and Federico Grinberg

2026/055: Fiscal Forecast Errors in East Africa: Nature, Drivers, and Policy Implications

Youssouf Kiendrebeogo and Barima Gyesaw

2026/054: Explaining Latin America’s Decreasing Skilled Wage Premium: Supply, Directed Technical Change, and Demand

Alberto Behar

2026/053: Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Defense Spending

Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra, Anh Nguyen, Ana Sofia Pessoa and Alexandre Sollaci

2026/052: Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets

Alexander Copestake, Cage Englander, Maria Martinez Peria and Germán Villegas-Bauer

2026/051: Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds

Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos Guevara, Justin Lesniak and Flora Lutz

2026/050: Tackling the Cost of Living in the Bahamas: A Trade Diversification Perspective

Julien Acalin

2026/049: Nowcasting Growth Using the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model: Application to Tanzania

Sunwoo Lee

2026/048: Nowcasting World Trade with a Multi-Region Factor Model

Chris Jackson and Daniel Greenwood

2026/047: Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost Patent Applications?

Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2026/046: The EU’s Energy Transition

Benjamin Carton, Geoffroy Dolphin, Romain Duval, Andrew Hodge, Amit Kara, Simon Voigts and Sebastian Wende

2026/045: Eroding Participation in Labor Force Surveys: Evidence, Drivers and Solutions

Eurydice Fotopoulou, Lamya Kejji, Vladimir Klyuev and Mpumelelo Nxumalo

2026/044: Stablecoin Shocks

Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat, Martina Hengge and Takaaki Sagawa

2026/043: AI Meets Fiscal Policy: Mapping Government Spending Actions Across 64 Countries

Shuvam Das, Davide Furceri, Nikhil Patel and Adrian Peralta-Alva

2026/042: Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Redistribution

Monica Tran-Xuan

2026/041: Towards Achieving Sustained Economic Growth in Small Developing States: A Primer on Belize

Ziad Amer, Jiajia Gu, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada (Mos) Laoprapassorn and Shane Lowe