IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2018/265: Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance

Hua Chai and Jun Kim

2018/264: Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account

Mai Dao and Callum Jones

2018/263: Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending

Daniel Gurara, Andrea Presbitero and Miguel Sarmiento

2018/262: The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends

Mai Dao and Chiara Maggi

2018/261: The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China

Ding Ding and Weicheng Lian

2018/260: Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Klaus-Peter Hellwig

2018/259: The Intensive Margin in Trade

Peter Klenow, Sergii Meleshchuk, Martha Denisse Pierola and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

2018/258: The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area

William Arrata, Benoît Nguyen, Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau and Miklos Vari

2018/257: Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

Pietro Dallari, Nicolas End, Fedor Miryugin, Alexander Tieman and Seyed Reza Yousefi

2018/256: Financial Inclusion and Bank Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa

Azanaw Mengistu and Hector Perez-Saiz

2018/255: Expenditure Conditionality in IMF-supported Programs

Sanjeev Gupta, Michela Schena and Seyed Reza Yousefi

2018/254: Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Karel Musil, Mikhail Pranovich and Jan Vlcek

2018/253: China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets

Eugenio Cerutti and Maurice Obstfeld

2018/252: Regional Labor Mobility in Finland

Tigran Poghosyan

2018/251: Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

Carolina Correa-Caro, Leandro Medina, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Bennett Sutton

2018/250: House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

Adrian Alter, Jane Dokko and Dulani Seneviratne

2018/249: On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan

Ellen McGrattan, Kazuaki Miyachi and Adrian Peralta-Alva

2018/248: Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

Mariana Colacelli and Emilio Fernández Corugedo

2018/247: Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK

Lucyna Gornicka

2018/246: Personal Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications

Claudia Gerber, Alexander Klemm, Li Liu and Victor Mylonas

2018/245: Populism and Civil Society

Tito Boeri, Prachi Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou and Antonio Spilimbergo

2018/244: China’s Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations

Michael McMahon, Alfred Schipke and Xiang Li

2018/243: China’s Rebalancing: Recent Progress, Prospects and Policies

Rui Mano and Jiayi Zhang

2018/242: Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy

Mitsuru Katagiri

2018/241: Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Rudolfs Bems, Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Bertrand Gruss and Weicheng Lian

2018/240: The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

Rodrigo Mariscal and Alejandro Werner

2018/239: A Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity

Shafik Hebous and Alexander Klemm

2018/238: Accounting for Macrofinancial Fluctuations and Turbulence

Francis Vitek

2018/237: Balancing Financial Stability and Housing Affordability: The Case of Canada

Troy Matheson

2018/236: The Expansionary Lower Bound: Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma

Paolo Cavallino and Damiano Sandri

2018/235: Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Coordination Among Multiple Equilibria

Itai Agur

2018/234: Tax Revenue Mobilization Episodes in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries: Lessons from a New Dataset

Bernardin Akitoby, Anja Baum, Clay Hackney, Olamide Harrison, Keyra Primus and Veronique Salins

2018/233: Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti

Alexei Kireyev

2018/232: The Labor Market Integration of Migrants in Europe: New Evidence from Micro Data

Giang Ho and Rima Turk Ariss

2018/231: The Limits of Meritocracy

John Morgan, Justin Tumlinson and Felix Vardy

2018/230: An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

Jin-Kyu Jung, Manasa Patnam and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

2018/229: Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Tamim Bayoumi, Maximiliano Appendino, Jelle Barkema and Diego Cerdeiro

2018/228: The Morning After--The Impact on Collateral Supply After a Major Default

Dermot Turing and Manmohan Singh

2018/227: The Cost and Benefits of Tax Treaties with Investment Hubs: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa

Sebastian Beer and Jan Loeprick

2018/225: Rightsizing Brazil’s Public-Sector Wage Bill

Izabela Karpowicz and Mauricio Soto

2018/224: Structural Reform Priorities for Brazil

Nina Biljanovska and Damiano Sandri

2018/223: Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation

Manoj Atolia, Prakash Loungani, Milton Marquis and Chris Papageorgiou

2018/222: The Effects of Higher Bank Capital Requirements on Credit in Peru

Xiangming Fang, David Jutrsa, Maria Martinez Peria, Andrea Presbitero, Lev Ratnovski and Felix Vardy

2018/221: Sectoral Booms and Misallocation of Managerial Talent: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Boom

Yu Shi

2018/220: Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations

Era Dabla-Norris and Frederico Lima

2018/219: China's Local Government Bond Market

Waikei Lam and Jingsen Wang

2018/218: The Insolvency Regime for Large Enterprises in Italy: An Economic and Legal Assessment

Nazim Belhocine, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Jose Garrido

2018/217: Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures

Eugenio Cerutti and Haonan Zhou

2018/216: China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

Linxi Chen, Ding Ding and Rui Mano

2018/215: Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?

Shai Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino and Tim McQuade

2018/214: Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature

Swarnali Hannan

2018/213: No Pain, All Gain? Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Expenditure-Switching Effect

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Nicolas Magud and Juan Yepez

2018/212: Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens’ Access to Finance Help?

Purva Khera

2018/211: What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings

Tim Willems

2018/210: An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank

Rania Al-Mashat, Ales Bulir, Nazire Nergiz Dincer, Tibor Hlédik, Tomas Holub, Asya Kostanyan, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurbekyan, Rafael Portillo and Hou Wang

2018/209: House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach

Mitsuru Katagiri

2018/208: Financial Access Under the Microscope

Sumit Agarwal, Thomas Kigabo, Camelia Minoiu, Andrea Presbitero and Andre Silva

2018/207: Technology and the Future of Work

Adrian Peralta-Alva and Agustin Roitman

2018/206: Systemic Banking Crises Revisited

Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia

2018/205: An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions

Filippo Balestrieri and Suman Basu

2018/204: The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016

Philip Barrett

2018/203: Carbon Taxation for International Maritime Fuels: Assessing the Options

Ian Parry, Dirk Heine, Kelley Kizzier and Tristan Smith

2018/202: Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy

Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson

2018/201: Fintech, Inclusive Growth and Cyber Risks: Focus on the MENAP and CCA Regions

Inutu Lukonga

2018/200: Dollarization and Financial Development

Geoffrey Bannister, Jarkko Turunen and Malin Gardberg

2018/199: External Audit Arrangements at Central Banks

Atilla Arda, Martin Gororo, Joanna Grochalska and Mowele Mohlala

2018/198: Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti

Ioana Moldovan, Marina Rousset and Chris Walker

2018/197: Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Searching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks

Ron Anderson, Jon Danielsson, Chikako Baba, Udaibir Das, Heedon Kang and Miguel Segoviano

2018/196: Household Wealth and Resilience to Financial Shocks in Italy

Daniel Garcia-Macia

2018/195: The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach

Sandile Hlatshwayo, Anne Oeking, Manuk Ghazanchyan, David Corvino, Ananya Shukla and Lamin Leigh

2018/194: Household Leverage and the Recession

Callum Jones, Virgiliu Midrigan and Thomas Philippon

2018/193: Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries

Ian Parry, Victor Mylonas and Nate Vernon-Lin

2018/192: Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates

Qianying Chen, Mitsuru Katagiri and Jay Surti

2018/191: Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money

Katrin Assenmacher and Signe Krogstrup

2018/190: Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet

Ezequiel Cabezon and Christian Henn

2018/189: Fiscal Transparency, Borrowing Costs, and Foreign Holdings of Sovereign Debt

Laurent Kemoe and Zaijin Zhan

2018/188: Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Yasser Abdih, Li Lin and Anne-Charlotte Paret

2018/187: Foreign Direct Investment in New Member State of the EU and Western Balkans: Taking Stock and Assessing Prospects

La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Jesmin Rahman

2018/186: Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies

Gabriele Ciminelli, Romain Duval and Davide Furceri

2018/185: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: An Appraisal

Nigel Chalk, Michael Keen and Victoria Perry

2018/184: Road to Industrialized Africa: Role of Efficient Factor Market in Firm Growth

Manabu Nose

2018/183: Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-side Framework: The Case of Argentina

Lusine Lusinyan

2018/182: Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits

Francesca Caselli and Philippe Wingender

2018/181: Predicting Fiscal Crises

Svetlana Cerovic, Kerstin Gerling, Andrew Hodge and Paulo Medas

2018/180: The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

Tobias Adrian, Federico Grinberg, Nellie Liang and Sheheryar Malik

2018/179: Size Dependent Policies, Informality and Misallocation

Era Dabla-Norris, Laura Jaramillo, Frederico Lima and Alexandre Sollaci

2018/178: A Behavioral Approach to Financial Supervision, Regulation, and Central Banking

Ashraf Khan

2018/177: Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa

Ken Miyajima and James Yetman

2018/176: Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors

Ashraf Khan

2018/175: Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts

Lisbeth Rivas and Joe Crowley

2018/174: Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Issues, Options, and Illustration for India

David Coady and Delphine Prady

2018/173: Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa

Alain Kabundi and Montfort Mlachila

2018/172: Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia

Serkan Arslanalp, Jaewoo Lee and Umang Rawat

2018/171: Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Davide Malacrino and Luigi Pistaferri

2018/170: Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

Davide Furceri and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2018/169: Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?

C. Di Bella, Francesco Grigoli and Francisco Ramirez

2018/168: International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review of the Channels, Magnitudes, and Blind Spots

Sebastian Beer, Ruud de Mooij and Li Liu

2018/167: Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations

Juan Angel Garcia and Sebastian Werner

2018/166: Tax Spillovers from US Corporate Income Tax Reform

Sebastian Beer, Alexander Klemm and Thornton Matheson

2018/165: Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions

Benjamin Hilgenstock and Zsoka Koczan