IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2019/048: Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development

Dong Frank Wu and Friedrich Schneider

2019/047: Struggling to Make the Grade: A Review of the Causes and Consequences of the Weak Outcomes of South Africa’s Education System

Montfort Mlachila and Tlhalefang Moeletsi

2019/046: Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency

Tanai Khiaonarong and David Humphrey

2019/045: How Effective is Macroprudential Policy? Evidence from Lending Restriction Measures in EU Countries

Tigran Poghosyan

2019/044: Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data

Margherita Bottero, Camelia Minoiu, Jose-Luis Peydro, Andrea Polo, Andrea Presbitero and Enrico Sette

2019/043: Sovereigns and Financial Intermediaries Spillovers

Hamid Tabarraei, Abdelaziz Rouabah and Olivier Pierrard

2019/042: Improving the Efficiency and Equity of Public Education Spending: The Case of Moldova

Hui Jin, La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Baoping Shang

2019/041: Macroeconomic Gains from Reforming the Agri-Food Sector: The Case of France

Nicoletta Batini

2019/040: Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Ippei Shibata

2019/039: Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Valentina Flamini, Pierluigi Bologna, Fabio Di Vittorio and Rasool Zandvakil

2019/038: The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance Schemes on Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Spending: Evidence from Rwanda

Andinet Woldemichael, Daniel Gurara and Abebe Abebe

2019/037: Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

Constance de Soyres, Anna Rogantini Picco and Randa Sab

2019/036: Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Selim Elekdag, Phakawa Jeasakul, Romain Lafarguette, Adrian Alter, Alan Xiaochen Feng and Changchun Wang

2019/035: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Ali Alichi, Hayk Avetisyan, Douglas Laxton, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Lusine Torosyan and Hou Wang

2019/034: Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth

Shekhar Aiyar and Christian Hubert Ebeke

2019/033: Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Francesco Luna

2019/032: Destabilizing the Global Monetary System: Germany’s Adoption of the Gold Standard in the Early 1870s

Johannes Wiegand

2019/031: Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

Fei Han

2019/030: Structural Transformation and Tax Efficiency

Serhan Cevik, Jan Gottschalk, Eric Hutton, Laura Jaramillo, Pooja Karnane and Moussé Sow

2019/029: Do Temporary Business Tax Cuts Matter? A General Equilibrium Analysis

William Gbohoui

2019/028: Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks

Chiara Broccolini, Giulia Lotti, Alessandro Maffioli, Andrea Presbitero and Rodolfo Stucchi

2019/027: The Use of Data in Assessing and Designing Insolvency Systems

Jose Garrido, Wolfgang Bergthaler, Chanda DeLong, Juliet Johnson, Amira Rasekh, Anjum Rosha and Natalia Stetsenko

2019/026: Importing Inputs for Climate Change Mitigation: The Case of Agricultural Productivity

Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Akira Sasahara and Hans Weisfeld

2019/025: Export Competitiveness - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern?

Kangni Kpodar, Stefania Fabrizio and Kodjovi Eklou

2019/024: Reinvigorating Growth in Belize

Dmitry Vasilyev

2019/023: Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia’s Local Currency Bond Market

David Grigorian

2019/022: Reform Options for Mature Defined Benefit Pension Plans: The Case of the Netherlands

Marc Gerard

2019/021: Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database

Bertrand Gruss and Suhaib Kebhaj

2019/020: Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach

Burcu Hacibedel, Pierre Mandon, Priscilla Muthoora and Nathalie Pouokam

2019/019: Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?

Juan Corrales and Patrick Imam

2019/018: Global Value Chains: What are the Benefits and Why Do Countries Participate?

Faezeh Raei, Anna Ignatenko and Borislava Mircheva

2019/017: Innovation and Corporate Cash Holdings in the Era of Globalization

Konrad Adler, JaeBin Ahn and Mai Dao

2019/016: China’s Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks

Longmei Zhang and Sally Chen

2019/015: Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan

Sriram Balasubramanian and Paul Cashin

2019/014: Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

Eugenio Cerutti, Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou

2019/013: Corporate Tax Reform: From Income to Cash Flow Taxes

Benjamin Carton, Emilio Fernández Corugedo and Benjamin Hunt

2019/012: The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

Michal Andrle

2019/011: Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?

R. Gaston Gelos, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Machiko Narita, Federico Grinberg, Umang Rawat and Shujaat Khan

2019/010: Fiscal Implications of Government Wage Bill Spending

Kamil Dybczak and Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

2019/009: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Rose

2019/008: Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis

Emine Boz, Nan Li and Hongrui Zhang

2019/007: Revenue Implications of Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxation

Shafik Hebous, Alexander Klemm and Saila Stausholm

2019/006: Public Debt Through the Ages

Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa ElGanainy, Rui Esteves and Kris James Mitchener

2019/005: Bank Profitability and Financial Stability

TengTeng Xu, Kun Hu and Udaibir Das

2019/004: Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries

Bernardin Akitoby, Jiro Honda and Hiroaki Miyamoto

2019/003: Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?

Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2019/002: The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs

Hippolyte Balima and Amadou Sy

2019/001: A Governance Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa?

Amine Hammadi, Marshall Mills, Nelson Sobrinho, Vimal Thakoor and Ricardo Velloso

2019/000: The Drivers of Hedge Fund Interconnectedness

Dilyana Dimova, Sheheryar Malik and Miguel Segoviano

2018/999: Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies

Hamid Tabarraei, Hamed Ghiaie and Asghar Shahmoradi

2018/286: In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries

Futoshi Narita and Rujun Yin

2018/285: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

2018/284: IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries

Tejesh Pradhan and Ali Al-Sadiq

2018/283: Drivers of Spain’s Export Performance and the Role of the Labor Market Reforms

Jorge Salas

2018/282: Regional Labor Mobility in Spain

Lucy Qian Liu

2018/281: Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area

Christian Ebeke and Jesse Siminitz

2018/280: Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

Rudolfs Bems, Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Bertrand Gruss and Weicheng Lian

2018/279: Can Good Governance Lower Financial Intermediation Costs?

Mariusz Jarmuzek and Tonny Lybek

2018/278: Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Sohaib Shahid and Ling Zhu

2018/277: China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies

Longmei Zhang, R. Brooks, Ding Ding, Haiyan Ding, Hui He, Jing Lu and Rui Mano

2018/276: Transport Infrastructure, City Productivity Growth and Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from China

Yang Yang

2018/275: A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter

Francis Vitek

2018/274: Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

Samuel Fraiberger, Do Lee, Damien Puy and Romain Ranciere

2018/273: Universal Basic Income: Debate and Impact Assessment

Maura Francese and Delphine Prady

2018/272: Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey

La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Antonio Spilimbergo

2018/271: Designing Sound Fiscal Relations Across Government Levels in Decentralized Countries

Robin Boadway and Luc Eyraud

2018/270: Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation

Manoj Atolia, Prakash Loungani, Helmut Maurer and Willi Semmler

2018/269: International Knowledge Spillovers

Johannes Eugster, Giang Ho, Florence Jaumotte and Roberto Piazza

2018/268: Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster?

Ruchir Agarwal and Patrick Gaulé

2018/267: The Micro Impact of Macroprudential Policies: Firm-Level Evidence

Meghana Ayyagari, Thorsten Beck and Maria Martinez Peria

2018/266: The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities

Jose Saboin

2018/265: Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance

Hua Chai and Jun Kim

2018/264: Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account

Mai Dao and Callum Jones

2018/263: Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending

Daniel Gurara, Andrea Presbitero and Miguel Sarmiento

2018/262: The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends

Mai Dao and Chiara Maggi

2018/261: The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China

Ding Ding and Weicheng Lian

2018/260: Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Klaus-Peter Hellwig

2018/259: The Intensive Margin in Trade

Peter Klenow, Sergii Meleshchuk, Martha Denisse Pierola and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

2018/258: The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area

William Arrata, Benoît Nguyen, Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau and Miklos Vari

2018/257: Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

Pietro Dallari, Nicolas End, Fedor Miryugin, Alexander Tieman and Seyed Reza Yousefi

2018/256: Financial Inclusion and Bank Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa

Azanaw Mengistu and Hector Perez-Saiz

2018/255: Expenditure Conditionality in IMF-supported Programs

Sanjeev Gupta, Michela Schena and Seyed Reza Yousefi

2018/254: Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Karel Musil, Mikhail Pranovich and Jan Vlcek

2018/253: China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets

Eugenio Cerutti and Maurice Obstfeld

2018/252: Regional Labor Mobility in Finland

Tigran Poghosyan

2018/251: Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

Carolina Correa-Caro, Leandro Medina, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Bennett Sutton

2018/250: House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

Adrian Alter, Jane Dokko and Dulani Seneviratne

2018/249: On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan

Ellen McGrattan, Kazuaki Miyachi and Adrian Peralta

2018/248: Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

Mariana Colacelli and Emilio Fernández Corugedo

2018/247: Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK

Lucyna Gornicka

2018/246: Personal Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications

Claudia Gerber, Alexander Klemm, Li Liu and Victor Mylonas

2018/245: Populism and Civil Society

Tito Boeri, Prachi Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou and Antonio Spilimbergo

2018/244: China’s Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations

Michael McMahon, Alfred Schipke and Xiang Li

2018/243: China’s Rebalancing: Recent Progress, Prospects and Policies

Rui Mano and Jiayi Zhang

2018/242: Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy

Mitsuru Katagiri

2018/241: Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Rudolfs Bems, Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Bertrand Gruss and Weicheng Lian

2018/240: The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

Rodrigo Mariscal and Alejandro Werner

2018/239: A Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity

Shafik Hebous and Alexander Klemm

2018/238: Accounting for Macrofinancial Fluctuations and Turbulence

Francis Vitek

2018/237: Balancing Financial Stability and Housing Affordability: The Case of Canada

Troy Matheson