IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2020/112: Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows: Serhan Cevik
2020/111: Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective: Marco Gross, Dimitrios Laliotis, Mindaugas Leika and Pavel Lukyantsau
2020/110: The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict: Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva
2020/109: The Impact of Monetary Policy Communication in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Indonesia: Calixte Ahokpossi, Agnes Isnawangsih, Md. Shah Naoaj and Ting Yan
2020/108: One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area: Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao Duarte and Samuel Mann
2020/107: Wealth Inequality and Private Savings: The Case of Germany: Mai Dao
2020/106: Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?: Katharina Bergant, Francesco Grigoli, Niels-Jakob Hansen and Damiano Sandri
2020/105: Designing Fiscal Redistribution: The Role of Universal and Targeted Transfers: David Coady and Nghia-Piotr Le
2020/104: A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency: John Kiff, Jihad Alwazir, Sonja Davidovic, Aquiles Farias, Ashraf Khan, Tanai Khiaonarong, Majid Malaika, Hunter Monroe, Nobu Sugimoto, Hervé Tourpe and Peter Zhou
2020/103: Does Going Tough on Banks Make the Going Get Tough? Bank Liquidity Regulations, Capital Requirements, and Sectoral Activity: Deniz Igan and Ali Mirzaei
2020/102: Debt, Investment, and Growth in Developing Countries with Segmented Labor Markets: Edward Buffie, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Christopher Adam, Lacina Balma, Dawit Tessema and Kangni Kpodar
2020/101: The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets: Tobias Adrian and Peichu Xie
2020/100: Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile: Elías Albagli, Mauricio Calani, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Mario Marcel and Luca Ricci
2020/099: Social Programs and Formal Employment: Evidence from the Brazilian Bolsa Família Program: Anna Fruttero, Alexandre Ribeiro Leichsenring and Luis Henrique Paiva
2020/098: The Lack of Convergence of Latin-America Compared with CESEE: Is Low Investment to Blame?: Bas Bakker, Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alex Ho and Vibha Nanda
2020/097: Shocks Matter: Managing Capital Flows with Multiple Instruments in Emerging Economies: Ruy Lama and Juan Medina
2020/096: The Distributional Impact of Recessions: the Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession: Ippei Shibata
2020/095: Improving Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa - What Does the East African Data Say: Alun Thomas
2020/094: Fiscal Resilience Building: Insights from a New Tax Revenue Diversification Index: Rasmane Ouedraogo, René Tapsoba, Moussé Sow and Ali Compaoré
2020/093: How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices?: Chadi Abdallah and Kangni Kpodar
2020/092: Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy?: Jiro Honda and Hiroaki Miyamoto
2020/091: Government Spending Effects in a Policy Constrained Environment: Ruoyun Mao and Shu-Chun Yang
2020/090: FX Intervention to Stabilize or Manipulate the Exchange Rate? Inference from Profitability: Damiano Sandri
2020/089: The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap: Jiaqian Chen, Daria Finocchiaro, Jesper Lindé and Karl Walentin
2020/088: Who will Bear the Brunt of Lockdown Policies? Evidence from Tele-workability Measures Across Countries: Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid
2020/087: Estimating the Neutral Interest Rate in the Kyrgyz Republic: Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru and Asel Toktonalieva
2020/086: How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area: Nicoletta Batini, Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa
2020/085: Credibility Dynamics and Disinflation Plans: Rumen Kostadinov and Francisco Roldán
2020/084: Why Did Public Banks Lend More During the Global Financial Crisis?: Joshua Bosshardt and Eugenio Cerutti
2020/083: Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand: Ichiro Fukunaga and Manrique Saenz
2020/082: Liquidity at Risk: Joint Stress Testing of Solvency and Liquidity: Rama Cont, Artur Kotlicki and Laura Valderrama
2020/081: Measuring the Impact of a Failing Participant in Payment Systems: Ronald Heijmans and Froukelien Wendt
2020/080: Estimated Policy Rules for Capital Controls: Gurnain Pasricha
2020/079: This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds: Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles
2020/078: Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth: Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Romain Lafarguette and Changchun Wang
2020/077: Tax Elasticity Estimates for Capital Stocks in Canada: Jean-Francois Wen, Fatih Yilmaz and Danea Trejo
2020/076: Tec(h)tonic Shifts: Taxing the “Digital Economy”: Aqib Aslam and Alpa Shah
2020/075: Fintech and Payments Regulation: Analytical Framework: Tanai Khiaonarong and Terry Goh
2020/074: Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies: Corinne Delechat, Lama Kiyasseh, Margaux MacDonald and Rui Xu
2020/073: Hysteresis and Business Cycles: Valerie Cerra, Antonio Fatas and Sweta Saxena
2020/072: When Banks Punch Back: Macrofinancial Feedback Loops in Stress Tests: Mario Catalan and Alexander Hoffmaister
2020/071: The Fiscal State-Dependent Effects of Capital Income Tax Cuts: Alexandra Fotiou, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang
2020/070: Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked: Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski
2020/069: Patterns of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting: Gustavo Adler, Kyun Suk Chang and Zijiao Wang
2020/068: Can Digitalization Help Deter Corruption in Africa?: Rasmane Ouedraogo and Amadou Sy
2020/067: Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates: Juliana Araujo, Manasa Patnam, Adina Popescu, Fabian Valencia and Weijia Yao
2020/066: Do Remittances Enhance Financial Inclusion in LMICs and in Fragile States?: Sami Ben Naceur, Ralph Chami and Mohamed Trabelsi
2020/065: Macroprudential Policies, Economic Growth, and Banking Crises: Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Jean-Charles Wijnandts
2020/064: Model-Based Globally-Consistent Risk Assessment: Michal Andrle and Benjamin Hunt
2020/063: Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria: Internal or External Driven?: Amr Hosny
2020/062: Macro-Structural Obstacles to Firm Performance: Evidence from 2,640 Firms in Nigeria: Amr Hosny
2020/061: Are Capital Goods Tariffs Different?: Sergii Meleshchuk and Yannick Timmer
2020/060: Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences: Alexander Culiuc
2020/059: A European Minimum Wage: Implications for Poverty and Macroeconomic Imbalances: Enrica Detragiache, Christian Ebeke, La-Bhus Jirasavetakul, Koralai Kirabaeva, Davide Malacrino, Florian Misch, Hyun Park and Yu Shi
2020/058: The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies: Viral Acharya, Katharina Bergant, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert and Fergal McCann
2020/057: World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch: Diego Cerdeiro, András Komáromi, Yang Liu and Mamoon Saeed
2020/056: Do FDI Firms Employ More Workers than Domestic Firms for Each Dollar of Assets?: Sakai Ando and Mengxue Wang
2020/055: Unlocking Access to Finance for SMEs: A Cross-Country Analysis: Armand Fouejieu, Anta Ndoye and Tetyana Sydorenko
2020/054: Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics: Raphael Espinoza, Miguel Segoviano and Ji Yan
2020/053: Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, Celine Rochon and Julieta Yung
2020/052: r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?: Paolo Mauro and Jing Zhou
2020/051: Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania: Matthieu Bellon, Carlo Pizzinelli and Roberto Perrelli
2020/050: Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies: Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov
2020/049: Exploring Residual Profit Allocation: Sebastian Beer, Ruud de Mooij, Shafik Hebous, Michael Keen and Li Liu
2020/048: On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?: Daniel Gurara, Kangni Kpodar, Andrea Presbitero and Dawit Tessema
2020/047: Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil: Nooman Rebei and Rashid Sbia
2020/046: International Capital Flows at the Security Level – Evidence from the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme: Katharina Bergant, Michael Fidora and Martin Schmitz
2020/045: Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning: Marijn Bolhuis and Brett Rayner
2020/044: The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data: Marijn Bolhuis and Brett Rayner
2020/043: Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US: Damien Puy, Anil Ari and Yu Shi
2020/042: Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries: Adrian Alter and Elizabeth Mahoney
2020/041: The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries: Ali Compaoré, Montfort Mlachila, Rasmane Ouedraogo and Sandrine Sourouema
2020/040: Lessons from Two Public Sector Reforms in Italy: Nazim Belhocine and La-Bhus Jirasavetakul
2020/039: Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy: Nazim Belhocine and Daniel Garcia-Macia
2020/038: Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy: Daniel Garcia-Macia
2020/037: Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy: Emile Cammeraat and Ernesto Crivelli
2020/036: Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs: Natalie Chen and Luciana Juvenal
2020/035: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Luis Brandão-Marques, R. Gaston Gelos, Thomas Harjes, Ratna Sahay and Yi Xue
2020/034: Barbados’ 2018–19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring–A Sea Change?: Anthony Myrvin, Gregorio Impavido and Bert van Selm
2020/033: A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance: Jean-Marc Fournier and Philipp Lieberknecht
2020/032: Taking Down the Wall: Transition and Inequality: Serhan Cevik and Carolina Correa-Caro
2020/031: Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda: Anja Baum
2020/030: Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reda Cherif, Sandesh Dhungana, Xiangming Fang, Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Yuanchen Yang, Mustafa Yenice and Jung Eun Yoon
2020/029: Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience: Ara Stepanyan and Jorge Salas
2020/028: Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore: Joseph Goh, Heedon Kang, Zhi Xing Koh, Jin Way Lim, Cheng Wei Ng, Galen Sher and Chris Yao
2020/027: Does Child Marriage Matter for Growth?: Pritha Mitra, Eric M. Pondi Endengle, Malika Pant and Luiz Almeida
2020/026: Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks: Nils Maehle
2020/025: Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel: JaeBin Ahn, Romain Duval and Can Sever
2020/024: Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?: Jiaqian Chen and Lucyna Gornicka
2020/023: The Minimum Wage Puzzle in Less Developed Countries: Reconciling Theory and Evidence: Christopher Adam and Edward Buffie
2020/022: Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals: Serhan Cevik
2020/021: Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean: Serhan Cevik and Vibha Nanda
2020/020: Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies: Julian Chow
2020/019: Labor Market Dynamics, Informality and Regulations in Latin America: Antonio David, Samuel Pienknagura and Jorge Roldos
2020/018: Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries: Izabela Karpowicz and Nujin Suphaphiphat
2020/017: How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?: Jorge Restrepo
2020/016: Effectiveness and Equity in Social Spending - The Case of Spain: Svetlana Vtyurina
2020/015: Remittance Concentration and Volatility: Evidence from 72 Developing Countries: Amr Hosny
2020/014: Tech in Fin before FinTech: Blessing or Curse for Financial Stability?: Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer
2020/013: A Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth for Low Income Countries: Michael Stanger

IMF Working Papers

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