IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2018/146: The Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Fiscal Consolidations in Low-income Countries

Adrian Peralta-Alva, Marina Tavares, Xuan Tam and Xin Tang

2018/145: The Globalization of Farmland: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Rabah Arezki, Christian Bogmans and Harris Selod

2018/144: The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Sebastian Acevedo, Mico Mrkaic, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva and Petia Topalova

2018/143: Cyber Risk for the Financial Sector: A Framework for Quantitative Assessment

Antoine Bouveret

2018/142: The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Antonio David and Daniel Leigh

2018/141: Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Samba Mbaye, Marialuz Moreno Badia and Kyungla Chae

2018/140: A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

Emanuel Kopp and Peter Williams

2018/139: Determinants of U.S. Business Investment

Emanuel Kopp

2018/138: Understanding U.S. Wage Dynamics

Yasser Abdih and Stephan Danninger

2018/137: Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications

Federico Diez, Daniel Leigh and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2018/136: How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico

Zsoka Koczan and Franz Loyola

2018/135: The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies

Mitali Das and Benjamin Hilgenstock

2018/134: Short Term Inflation Determinants in Barbados

Gregorio Impavido

2018/133: Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought

Armand Fouejieu, Sergio Rodriguez and Sohaib Shahid

2018/132: Are Elasticities of Taxable Income Rising?

Alexander Klemm, Li Liu, Victor Mylonas and Philippe Wingender

2018/131: Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates

Gee Hee Hong and John Kandrac

2018/130: Progressive Taxation of Extractive Resources as Second-Best Optimal Policy

Jean-Francois Wen

2018/129: How Public Investment Could Help Strengthen Iran’s Growth Potential: Issues and Options

Amir Sadeghi

2018/128: The U.S. Personal Saving Rate

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2018/127: Inequality in China – Trends, Drivers and Policy Remedies

Sonali Jain-Chandra, Niny Khor, Rui Mano, Johanna Schauer, Philippe Wingender and Juzhong Zhuang

2018/126: Labor Market Duality in Korea

Johanna Schauer

2018/125: Effectiveness of Internal Audit and Oversight at Central Banks: Safeguards Findings - Trends and Observations

Elie Chamoun and Riaan van Greuning

2018/124: Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria

Maria Elkhdari, Moez Souissi and Andrew Jewell

2018/123: Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?

Deepal Basak and Yunhui Zhao

2018/122: On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

Paul Beaudry and Tim Willems

2018/121: Belize's 2016-17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Third Time Lucky?

Tamon Asonuma, Michael Papaioannou, Eriko Togo and Bert van Selm

2018/120: A Cohort-Based Analysis of Labor Force Participation for Advanced Economies

Francesco Grigoli, Zsoka Koczan and Petia Topalova

2018/119: Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition

Philippe Karam and Dirk Muir

2018/118: Permanently Displaced? Increasingly Disconnected? Labor Force Participation in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

Benjamin Hilgenstock and Zsoka Koczan

2018/117: Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Lichen Wang

2018/116: Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer is Yes)

Andrew Berg, Edward Buffie and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2018/115: Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth

Eran Hoffmann and Davide Malacrino

2018/114: International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks

Callum Jones, Mariano Kulish and Daniel Rees

2018/113: Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Manasa Patnam, Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon and Mason Porter

2018/112: Resource Misallocation and Productivity: Evidence from Mexico

Florian Misch and Christian Saborowski

2018/111: Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

Samba Mbaye, Marialuz Moreno Badia and Kyungla Chae

2018/110: Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database

David Amaglobeli, Valerio Crispolti, Era Dabla-Norris, Pooja Karnane and Florian Misch

2018/109: Peeling Away the Layers: Impacts of Durable Tariff Elimination

Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan and Christian Henn

2018/108: The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness

Dongyeol Lee, Huan Zhang and Chau Nguyen

2018/107: Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment

Steve Brito, Nicolas Magud and Sebastian Sosa

2018/106: Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Sergi Lanau, Adrian Robles and Frederik Toscani

2018/105: Gender Equality: Which Policies Have the Biggest Bang for the Buck?

Sonali Jain-Chandra, Kalpana Kochhar, Monique Newiak, Yang Yang and Edda Zoli

2018/104: Debt Seniority and Sovereign Debt Crises

Anil Ari, Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Dedola

2018/103: Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions

Patrick Blagrave, Giang Ho, Ksenia Koloskova and Esteban Vesperoni

2018/102: Are Remittances Good for Labor Markets in LICs, MICs and Fragile States?

Ralph Chami, Ekkehard Ernst, Connel Fullenkamp and Anne Oeking

2018/100: Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

Nan Li and Vance Martin

2018/099: Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle

Enrica Detragiache, Thierry Tressel and Rima Turk Ariss

2018/098: Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, Sami Ben Naceur, Oussama Kanaan and Christophe Rault

2018/097: Foreign Currency Bank Funding and Global Factors

Signe Krogstrup and Cédric Tille

2018/096: Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market

Fei Han and Dulani Seneviratne

2018/095: Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market

Yinqiu Lu and Dmitry Yakovlev

2018/094: A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Antonio David and Daniel Leigh

2018/093: Financial Crises, Macroeconomic Shocks, and the Government Balance Sheet: A Panel Analysis

Matteo Ruzzante

2018/092: On Bank Consolidation in a Currency Union

Fabio Di Vittorio, Delong Li and Hanlei Yun

2018/091: A New Strategy for Korea’s Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment

Edda Zoli, Hou Wang and Douglas Laxton

2018/090: An Estimated DSGE Model to Analyze Housing Market Policies in Hong Kong SAR

Pau Rabanal

2018/089: Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

Richard Koss and Xinrui Shi

2018/088: Intergovernmental Fiscal Reform in China

Philippe Wingender

2018/087: Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

Federico Diaz Kalan, Adina Popescu and Julien Reynaud

2018/086: Economic Benefits of Export Diversification in Small States

Arnold McIntyre, Mike Xin Li, Ke Wang and Hanlei Yun

2018/085: Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data

Gail Cohen, Joao Jalles, Prakash Loungani, Ricardo Marto and Gewei Wang

2018/084: How Do Regulations of Entry and Credit Access Relate to Industry Competition? International Evidence

Deniz Igan, Ali Mirzaei and Tomoe Moore

2018/083: The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani and Jonathan Ostry

2018/082: Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies

Philip Barrett

2018/081: The Global Macrofinancial Model

Francis Vitek

2018/080: Relationship Between Short-Term Interest Rates and Excess Reserves: A Logistic Approach

Romain Veyrune, Guido della Valle and Shaoyu Guo

2018/079: The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns

Gustavo Adler and Daniel Garcia-Macia

2018/078: Finland’s Public Sector Balance Sheet: A Novel Approach to Analysis of Public Finance

Maren Brede and Christian Henn

2018/077: When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals

Jiro Honda, René Tapsoba and Ismael Issifou

2018/076: Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

Adrian Alter, Alan Xiaochen Feng and Nico Valckx

2018/075: Globalization and the New Normal

Alina Carare, Bertrand Candelon, Jean-Baptiste Hasse and Jing Lu

2018/074: A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

Thordur Jonasson and Michael Papaioannou

2018/073: On the Impact of Structural Reforms on Output and Employment: Evidence from a Cross-country Firm-level Analysis

Luiza Antoun de Almeida and Vybhavi Balasundharam

2018/072: Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets

Woon Gyu Choi and David Cook

2018/071: Tax Incentives in Cambodia

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alexander Klemm and Yong Sarah Zhou

2018/070: Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Alla Myrvoda and Julien Reynaud

2018/069: At A Cost: the Real Effects of Transfer Pricing Regulations

Ruud de Mooij and Li Liu

2018/068: Independent Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance

Roel Beetsma, Xavier Debrun, Xiangming Fang, Young-Bae Kim, Victor Lledo, Samba Mbaye and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2018/067: Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle

Callum Jones

2018/066: Organizing Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets—7 Considerations

Froukelien Wendt, Peter Katz and Alice Zanza

2018/065: Central Counterparties Resolution—An Unresolved Problem

Manmohan Singh and Dermot Turing

2018/064: Structural Reforms and Labor Reallocation: A Cross-Country Analysis

Khalid ElFayoumi, Anta Ndoye, Sanaa Nadeem and Allan Gregory Auclair

2018/063: Structural Reforms and Firms’ Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries

Wilfried Kouamé and Sampawende Tapsoba

2018/062: Leverage—A Broader View

Manmohan Singh and Zohair Alam

2018/061: Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy

Alvar Kangur

2018/060: Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package

Michal Andrle, Alvar Kangur and Mehdi Raissi

2018/059: Italy: Toward a Growth-Friendly Fiscal Reform

Michal Andrle, Shafik Hebous, Alvar Kangur and Mehdi Raissi

2018/058: Carry Trade vs. Deposit-Driven Euroization

Nan Geng, Tiberiu Scutaru and Johannes Wiegand

2018/057: The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies

Davide Furceri, Jun Ge, Prakash Loungani and Giovanni Melina

2018/056: The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters

Gail Cohen, Joao Jalles, Prakash Loungani and Ricardo Marto

2018/055: The Effective Lower Bound for the Policy Rate in Euroized Economies—An Application to the Case of Albania

Guido della Valle, Erald Themeli, Romain Veyrune, Ezequiel Cabezon and Shaoyu Guo

2018/054: The Distribution of Gains from Globalization

Valentin Lang and Marina Tavares

2018/053: Financial Development and Inclusion in the Caribbean

Chuan Li and Joyce Wong

2018/052: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2018/051: International Technology Sourcing and Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from OECD Countries

Sophia Chen and Estelle Dauchy

2018/050: More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies

Gee Hee Hong, Zsoka Koczan, Weicheng Lian and Malhar Nabar

2018/049: Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses

Zineddine Alla, Raphael Espinoza, Qiaoluan Li and Miguel Segoviano

2018/048: Forecasts in Times of Crises

Theo Eicher, David Kuenzel, Chris Papageorgiou and Charalambos Christofides

2018/047: Estimating the Demand for Reserve Assets Across Diverse Groups

Rina Bhattacharya, Katja Mann and Mwanza Nkusu

2018/046: The Global Banking Network: What is Behind the Increasing Regionalization Trend?

Eugenio Cerutti and Haonan Zhou