IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2016/231: System Priors for Econometric Time Series

Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil

2016/230: Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?

Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and José Tavares

2016/229: Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact

Kimberly Beaton, Alla Myrvoda and Shernnel Thompson

2016/228: Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Sylwia Nowak and Pratiti Chatterjee

2016/227: The Influence of Gender Budgeting in Indian States on Gender Inequality and Fiscal Spending

Janet Stotsky and Asad Zaman

2016/226: A Balancing Act: Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law

Antonio David and Natalija Novta

2016/225: Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?

Anne Oeking and Mariusz Sumlinski

2016/224: Whose Credit Line is it Anyway: An Update on Banks' Implicit Subsidies

Tryggvi Gudmundsson

2016/223: Stock Market Liquidity in Chile

Luis Brandão-Marques

2016/222: Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon and Akira Sasahara

2016/221: Securitization and Credit Quality

David Marques-Ibanez

2016/220: A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?

Daniel Dias, Christine Richmond and Carlos Marques

2016/219: Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

Rui Mano

2016/218: To Bet or Not to Bet: Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile

Fabio Comelli and Esther Perez Ruiz

2016/217: Financial Sector Debt Bias

Oana Luca and Alexander Tieman

2016/216: Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility? Evidence from U.S. Regions

Tigran Poghosyan

2016/215: Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra

Szilard Benk, Tamas Csabafi, Jing Dang, Max Gillman and Michal Kejak

2016/214: When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

Sohrab Rafiq

2016/213: How to Better Measure Hedonic Residential Property Price Indexes

Mick Silver

2016/212: Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Allan Dizioli, Benjamin Hunt and Wojciech Maliszewski

2016/211: Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Ireland

Nir Klein

2016/210: Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mohammad Pesaran

2016/209: Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?

Sampawende Tapsoba, Robert York and Neree Noumon

2016/208: Dominican Republic: Sectoral Financial Positions and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities

Svetlana Cerovic and Jose Saboin

2016/207: The Role of Newly Industrialized Economies in Global Value Chains

Dominik Boddin

2016/206: National Insurance Scheme Reforms in the Caribbean

Koffie Ben Nassar, Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, Mike Li, Timothy Robinson and Saji Thomas

2016/205: Surprise, Surprise: What Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility?

Nasha Maveé, Roberto Perrelli and Axel Schimmelpfennig

2016/204: Benefits and Costs of Corporate Debt Restructuring: An Estimation for Korea

Jae Chung and Lev Ratnovski

2016/203: Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem

Wojciech Maliszewski, Serkan Arslanalp, John Caparusso, Jose Garrido, Si Guo, Joong Kang, Waikei Lam, Daniel Law, Wei Liao, Nadia Rendak, Philippe Wingender, Jiangyan Yu and Longmei Zhang

2016/202: The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes

Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Elijah Kimani

2016/201: Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors

Patrick Blagrave and Marika Santoro

2016/200: Assessing Liquidity Buffers in the Panamanian Banking Sector

András Komáromi, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Torsten Wezel

2016/199: Gone with the Wind: Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean

Sebastian Acevedo

2016/198: Negative Interest Rates: How Big a Challenge for Large Danish and Swedish Banks?

Rima Turk Ariss

2016/197: Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Luis Jácome, Nicolas Magud and Alejandro Werner

2016/196: Is Capping Executive Bonuses Useful?

Kentaro Asai

2016/195: U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates

Carlos Caceres, Yan Carrière-Swallow, İshak Demir and Bertrand Gruss

2016/194: Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan

Ikuo Saito

2016/193: Products and Provinces: A Disaggregated Panel Analysis of Canada’s Manufacturing Exports

Itai Agur

2016/192: How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada

Maurice Obstfeld, Kevin Clinton, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Yulia Ustyugova and Hou Wang

2016/191: An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Angola and Nigeria

Ana Lariau, Moataz El-Said and Misa Takebe

2016/190: Fragmented Politics and Public Debt

Ernesto Crivelli, Sanjeev Gupta, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Carolina Correa-Caro

2016/189: The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Investigation

Keyra Primus

2016/188: Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago

Keyra Primus

2016/187: Regulating Local Government Financing Vehicles and Public-Private Partnerships in China

Hui Jin and Isabel Rial

2016/186: Supervisory Incentives in a Banking Union

Elena Carletti, Giovanni Dell'ariccia and Robert Marquez

2016/185: Highways to Heaven: Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean

Valerie Cerra, Alfredo Cuevas, Carlos Góes, Izabela Karpowicz, Troy Matheson, Issouf Samaké and Svetlana Vtyurina

2016/184: Spatial Dependence and Data-Driven Networks of International Banks

Ben Craig and Martin Saldias

2016/183: Rebalancing in China—Progress and Prospects

Longmei Zhang

2016/182: Unlocking Pakistan’s Revenue Potential

Serhan Cevik

2016/181: China’s Financial Interlinkages and Implications For Inter-Agency Coordination

Min Liao, Tao Sun and Jinfan Zhang

2016/180: Market Frictions, Interbank Linkages and Excessive Interconnections

Pragyan Deb

2016/179: Smoke Screen: Estimating the Tax Pass-Through to Cigarette Prices in Pakistan

Serhan Cevik

2016/178: Optimal Debt Policy Under Asymmetric Risk

Julio Escolano and Vitor Gaspar

2016/177: Changing Times for Frontier Markets: A Perspective from Portfolio Investment Flows and Financial Integration

Nordine Abidi, Burcu Hacibedel and Mwanza Nkusu

2016/176: Growing Apart, Losing Trust? The Impact of Inequality on Social Capital

Eric Gould and Alexander Hijzen

2016/175: Profitability and Balance Sheet Repair of Italian Banks

Andreas Jobst and Anke Weber

2016/174: Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth: The Role of Credit Constraints

Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Yifei Huang and Prakash Loungani

2016/173: China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets

Serkan Arslanalp, Wei Liao, Shi Piao and Dulani Seneviratne

2016/172: Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implications for Monetary Transmission and Bank Profitability in the Euro Area

Andreas Jobst and Huidan Lin

2016/171: Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method

Bibek Adhikari, Romain Duval, Bingjie Hu and Prakash Loungani

2016/170: Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Allan Dizioli, Jaime Guajardo, Vladimir Klyuev, Rui Mano and Mehdi Raissi

2016/169: Demographic Dividends, Gender Equality, and Economic Growth: The Case of Cabo Verde

Heloisa Marone

2016/168: The Real Exchange Rate: Assessment and Trade Impact in the Context of Fiji and Samoa

Jan Gottschalk, Carl Miller, Lanieta Rauqeuqe, Isoa Wainiqolo and Yongzheng Yang

2016/167: Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India

Prachi Mishra, Peter Montiel and Rajeswari Sengupta

2016/166: What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?

Sajjid Chinoy, Pankaj Kumar and Prachi Mishra

2016/165: Evolution of Exchange Rate Behavior in the ASEAN-5 Countries

Vladimir Klyuev and To-Nhu Dao

2016/164: Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model

Anthony Bonen, Prakash Loungani, Willi Semmler and Sebastian Koch

2016/163: A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Calixte Ahokpossi, Claudio Battiati and Mai Farid

2016/162: From Firm-Level Imports to Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from Korean Manufacturing Firms Data

JaeBin Ahn and Moon Jung Choi

2016/161: The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC

Padamja Khandelwal, Ken Miyajima and Andre Santos

2016/160: Testing Piketty’s Hypothesis on the Drivers of Income Inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with Heterogeneous Dynamics

Carlos Góes

2016/159: Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market: A Model of Venezuela

Valerie Cerra

2016/158: Measuring Concentration Risk - A Partial Portfolio Approach

Pierpaolo Grippa and Lucyna Gornicka

2016/157: Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?

Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Dennis Botman, Kevin Clinton, Pietro Cova, Vitor Gaspar, Zoltán Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, Joannes Mongardini and Hou Wang

2016/156: The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan

George Kopits

2016/155: Europe: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Sheila Quinn

2016/154: Caribbean and Pacific Islands: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Tamoya Christie and Dhanaraj Thakur

2016/153: Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Lucía Pérez Fragoso and Corina Rodríguez Enríquez

2016/152: Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Janet Stotsky, Lisa Kolovich and Suhaib Kebhaj

2016/151: Middle East and Central Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Lisa Kolovich and Sakina Shibuya

2016/150: Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Lekha Chakraborty

2016/149: Gender Budgeting: Fiscal Context and Current Outcomes

Janet Stotsky

2016/148: Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?

Ian Parry, Baoping Shang, Philippe Wingender, Nate Vernon-Lin and Tarun Narasimhan

2016/147: Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Growth

Lorenzo Forni, Geremia Palomba, Joana Pereira and Christine Richmond

2016/146: The Design of Fiscal Reform Packages: Insights from a Theoretical Endogenous Growth Model

Andrew Hodge

2016/145: Sovereign Risk and Deposit Dynamics: Evidence from Europe

David Grigorian and Vlad Manole

2016/144: Fiscal Multipliers and Institutions in Peru: Getting the Largest Bang for the Sol

Svetlana Vtyurina and Zulima Leal

2016/143: No Extension without Representation? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Collective Bargaining

Alexander Hijzen and Pedro Martins

2016/142: Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues?

Ernesto Crivelli and Sanjeev Gupta

2016/141: The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations

Tigran Poghosyan, Abdelhak Senhadji and Carlo Cottarelli

2016/140: Gender Equality and Economic Diversification

Romina Kazandjian, Lisa Kolovich, Kalpana Kochhar and Monique Newiak

2016/139: 6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?

Sanjay Kalra

2016/138: The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy: The Role of Liquidity Frictions

Jasmin Sin

2016/137: South Africa: Labor Market Dynamics and Inequality

Rahul Anand, Siddharth Kothari and Naresh Kumar

2016/136: The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts

Francisco Roch and Harald Uhlig

2016/135: Cleaning-up Bank Balance Sheets: Economic, Legal, and Supervisory Measures for Italy

Jose Garrido, Emanuel Kopp and Anke Weber

2016/134: Insolvency and Enforcement Reforms in Italy

Jose Garrido

2016/133: Fixed Base Year vs. Chain Linking in National Accounts: Experience of Sub-Saharan African Countries

Robert Dippelsman, Venkat Josyula and Eric Métreau

2016/132: Inflation, Financial Developments, and Wealth Distribution

Wai-Yip Alex Ho and Chun-Yu Ho