Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea Presbitero and Antonio Bassanetti

No 2016/253, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost.

Keywords: WP; market; debt ratio; market access; debt distress; Debt Sustainability; Fiscal Crises; Default; International Capital Markets; debt dynamics; distress episode; market loss; Debt sustainability analysis; Fiscal stance; Debt default; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2016-12-23
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Lost and found: market access and public debt dynamics (2019)
Working Paper: Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics (2016)
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