IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().

Access Statistics for this working paper series.
Is something missing from the series or not right? See the RePEc data check for the archive and series.

2026/063: Institutions for Industrial Policy: The Foundation of Economic Development

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Gary Xie

2026/062: The Rise of Cyber Events and Digital Fraud in the Financial Sector

Tanai Khiaonarong and Shanyuan Zheng

2026/061: Network Valuation in Euro Area Syndicated and Interbank Loan Markets

Andre Santos

2026/060: Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Disentangling Quantities from Prices

Andres Fernandez and Alejandro Vicondoa

2026/059: Tax on Inflation Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

Damien Capelle and Yang Liu

2026/058: The Credibility Premium: Central Bank Independence and Local-Currency Sovereign Yields

Adrian Alter, Julia Bersch, Albert Touna Mama and Bright Quaye

2026/057: Imperfect Information, Composition of Demand Shocks, and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve

Tatsushi Okuda, Tomohiro Tsuruga and Francesco Zanetti

2026/056: Stablecoin Inflows and Spillovers to FX Markets

Iñaki Aldasoro, Paula Beltran and Federico Grinberg

2026/055: Fiscal Forecast Errors in East Africa: Nature, Drivers, and Policy Implications

Youssouf Kiendrebeogo and Barima Gyesaw

2026/054: Explaining Latin America’s Decreasing Skilled Wage Premium

Alberto Behar

2026/053: Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Defense Spending

Davide Furceri, Pedro Juarros, Saurabh Mishra, Anh Nguyen, Ana Sofia Pessoa and Alexandre Sollaci

2026/052: Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets

Alexander Copestake, Cage Englander, Maria Martinez Peria and Germán Villegas-Bauer

2026/051: Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds

Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos Guevara, Justin Lesniak and Flora Lutz

2026/050: Tackling the Cost of Living in the Bahamas: A Trade Diversification Perspective

Julien Acalin

2026/049: Nowcasting Growth Using the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model: Application to Tanzania

Sunwoo Lee

2026/048: Nowcasting World Trade with a Multi-Region Factor Model

Chris Jackson and Daniel Greenwood

2026/047: Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost Patent Applications?

Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2026/046: The EU’s Energy Transition

Benjamin Carton, Geoffroy Dolphin, Romain Duval, Andrew Hodge, Amit Kara, Simon Voigts and Sebastian Wende

2026/045: Eroding Participation in Labor Force Surveys: Evidence, Drivers and Solutions

Eurydice Fotopoulou, Lamya Kejji, Vladimir Klyuev and Mpumelelo Nxumalo

2026/044: Stablecoin Shocks

Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat, Martina Hengge and Takaaki Sagawa

2026/043: AI Meets Fiscal Policy: Mapping Government Spending Actions Across 64 Countries

Shuvam Das, Davide Furceri, Nikhil Patel and Adrian Peralta-Alva

2026/042: Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Redistribution

Monica Tran-Xuan

2026/041: Towards Achieving Sustained Economic Growth in Small Developing States: A Primer on Belize

Ziad Amer, Jiajia Gu, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Bunyada (Mos) Laoprapassorn and Shane Lowe

2026/040: The Macroeconomic Consequences of Undermining Central Bank Independence: Evidence from Governor Transitions

Marijn Bolhuis, Rui Mano and Hedda Thorell

2026/039: The Long-term Effects of Crime: From Individual Concerns to Macroeconomic Consequences

Ursula Berresheim, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2026/038: The Catalytic Impact of Resilience and Sustainability Arrangements

Yoro Diallo, Patricia Escalante, Linda Kaltani, Tümer Kapan, Friederike Langowski and Dan Nyberg

2026/037: Tilting the Balance Towards Equity: Capital Controls and the Structure of External Liabilities

Tobias Krahnke and Wenjie Li

2026/036: A Novel Quarterly Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework: Illustration on the Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Tibor Hlédik, Rilind Kabashi, Maria Arakelyan, Belma Colakovic and Elma Hasanović

2026/035: How Effectively Can Current LLMs Analyze Macrofinancial Issues?

Paola Ganum and Tohid Atashbar

2026/034: Cadasters, Asset Tangibility, and Growth

Can Sever

2026/033: Risk Propagation in the European Banking System: Amplification Effect from NBFIs and Market Risks

Laura Valderrama and Richard Varghese

2026/032: Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain Kabundi, Cedric Okou and Antonio Spilimbergo

2026/031: Who Pays When Tax Administration Improves? Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Responses to Georgia’s Large Taxpayer Office

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Mikheil Chikviladze, Mitali Das, Elguja Loliashvili and Mona Wang

2026/030: Optimal Exchange Rate Policy with Oil Shocks

Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi

2026/029: Intermediation, Interrupted? Bank-Level Analysis of Interest Spreads in Montenegro

Serhan Cevik and Amit Kara

2026/028: Sowing Seeds of Mobility: The Uneven Impact of Land Reform

Ting Chen, Jiajia Gu, L. Rachel Ngai and Jin Wang

2026/027: Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China

Boele Bonthuis, Yongquan Cao and Christoph Freudenberg

2026/026: From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu and Xinrui Zhao

2026/025: Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

Mustapha Abderrahim, Riad Mansouri, Fatma Zohra Ouail, Sara Abadi, Kenza Elkrim, Mohamed-Fariz Zidane, Philippe Karam, Gyorgy Molnar, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

2026/024: Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-Leste

Kohei Asao and Raju Huidrom

2026/023: Banking on Nonbanks

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat and Benedikt Kagerer

2026/022: Distributional Impacts of Inflation Accounting for Behavioral Effects and Real Assets

Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico-Mejia, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Alberto Tumino

2026/021: Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure of Capital Flow Management

Wenjie Li

2026/020: Nowcasting Economic Growth with Machine Learning and Satellite Data

Eurydice Fotopoulou, Iyke Maduako, M. Belen Sbrancia and Prachi Srivastava

2026/019: Taste-based Investing, Government Policies and Competition in Financial Intermediation

Damien Capelle

2026/018: Still Packing a Punch: Monetary Policy Transmission in a New Cross-Country High-Frequency Dataset

Ece Ozge Emeksiz, Güneş Kamber, Julia Otten and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

2026/017: U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account: Unpacking Trade and Financial Channels

Adam Jakubik and Yuting Wei

2026/016: Motivating Capital Controls: Evidence from New Measures of Capital Flow Restrictions

Chikako Baba, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim Darbar, Annamaria Kokenyne and Viktoriya Zotova

2026/015: The Welfare Implications of Job Retention Schemes

John Bluedorn, Jorge Mondragon, Ippei Shibata and Marina Mendes Tavares

2026/014: Structural Reforms in Saudi Arabia Since 2016

David Koll, Andrea Medici, Marina Mendes Tavares and Masashi Saito

2026/013: Understanding China’s 2024–25 Frontloading from the Lens of Product-Level Export Baskets

Jason Lu and Dimitre Milkov

2026/012: The Fiscal Multipliers Narrative of Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khalil Bechchani, Antonio David and Thibault Lemaire

2026/011: A Narrative Fiscal Consolidation Dataset for Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khalil Bechchani, Antonio David and Thibault Lemaire

2026/010: Market Access and High Spread Issuances

Raphael Espinoza, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luis Carlos Ibanez-Thomae and Flora Lutz

2026/009: Who Captures Export Windfalls? Exchange Rates, Export Profitability, and National Saving under Dominant-Currency Pricing

Bas Bakker

2026/008: Financial Inclusion, Credit Booms, and Financial Stability Risk

Adolfo Barajas, Kensuke Sakamoto and Rasool Zandvakil

2026/007: Fintech Competition and Banks’ Shrinking Margins in Brazil

Rui Xu

2026/006: Services Inflation and the Exchange Rate in Türkiye

Tara Iyer, Agustin Roitman and James Walsh

2026/005: From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin

Marco Gross and Richard Senner

2026/004: The Nuanced Role of Government Credit in Monetary Policy Transmission

Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Leila Aghabarari and Bernardus Van Doornik

2026/003: A Silver Lining? The European Energy Crisis through the Lens of Directed Technical Change

Ting Lan, Manasa Patnam, Frederik Toscani and Claire Li

2026/002: The Integration of Global Value Chain in the EU: Stylized Facts and Drivers

Younghun Shim, Iglika Vassileva and Mengxue Wang

2026/001: The Economic Implications of the Energy Transition in Asia-Pacific

John Spray, Sneha Thube and Alice Tianbo Zhang

2025/270: Underpriced and Overused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update

Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia Huitron, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa and Nate Vernon-Lin

2025/269: Financial Constraints and the Effectiveness of Green Financial Policies

Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, Germán Villegas-Bauer and Sharan Banerjee

2025/268: Nowcasting GCC GDP: A Machine Learning Solution for Enhanced Non-Oil GDP Prediction

Greta Polo, Yuan Gao Rollinson, Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Tongfang Yuan

2025/267: Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World

Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem Nechi and Subi Suvetha Velkumar

2025/266: Brazil's VAT Reform: Ensuring Revenue Neutrality

Ana Cebreiro Gomez, Christina Kolerus, Guilherme Dal Pizzol, Pablo Moreira and Miguel Pecho

2025/265: Stuck in the Middle with You? An Assessment of Income Dynamics in Indonesia

Florischa Tresnatri, Akbar Nikmatullah Dachlan, Galuh Chandra Wibowo and Rifat Pasha

2025/264: Cyclical Inequality in the Cost of Living and Implications for Monetary Policy

Ting Lan, Lerong Li and Minghao Li

2025/263: Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling

Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma and Petia Topalova

2025/262: Changes in Bank Lending Standards and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal, Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush, Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene and Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun

2025/261: Optimal FX Interventions with Limited Reserves

Marcin Kolasa, Oliver Vogt and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/260: Can Healthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from Korea

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Helena Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Kemal Ozhan

2025/259: Reforms to Reduce China’s High Household Savings

Yizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui and Ding Hua

2025/258: Speaking to the Markets: The Role of IMF Announcements in Investors’ Confidence

Beatrice Maryline Sagna and Solo Zerbo

2025/257: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area

Giovanni Sciacovelli

2025/256: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?

Marijn Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea Presbitero and Zhao Zhang

2025/255: Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence

Michael Barczay, Shafik Hebous, Fayçal Sawadogo and Jean-François Wen

2025/254: The Food and Agriculture Sector in IMF Publications: A Text-Mining Analysis

Tewodaj Mogues and Papa Niang

2025/253: Good News Travels Fast: Global Demand Shocks, Oil Futures, and Emerging Markets Dynamics

Felipe Beltrán, David Coble Fernandez, Manuel Escobar and Felipe Rojas

2025/252: GDP Nowcasting Performance of Traditional Econometric Models vs Machine-Learning Algorithms: Simulation and Case Studies

Klakow Akepanidtaworn and Korkrid Akepanidtaworn

2025/251: Macro-Criticality of Water Resources

Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos

2025/250: Carbon Risk in Loan Pricing: Commitment Channels and Real Effects

Yao Dong, Martina Hengge, Fabian Valencia and Richard Varghese

2025/249: Crop Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Research and Development

Christian Ebeke and Mireille Ntsama Etoundi

2025/248: Inequality, Household Debt, and the Role of Social Protection in Thailand

Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Delechat, Seunghwan Kim, Ying Xu and Tamon Yungvichit

2025/247: Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050

Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano and Jeongwon Son

2025/246: The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies

Selim Elekdag, Mananirina Razafitsiory and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/245: Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30

Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin and Sunalika Singh

2025/244: The Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Volatility on Food Prices—Evidence for Uganda

Christopher Adam and Prabhmeet Kaur Matta

2025/243: Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles

Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova

2025/242: Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data

Marina Conesa Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Nan Li, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou and Andrea Presbitero

2025/241: Minimum Wage and Employment: Sectoral and Regional Perspectives

Yan Chen and Jiaxiong Yao

2025/240: Trade Dynamics in Sovereign Debt Crises

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, Yasumasa Morito and Akira Sasahara

2025/239: A Search-Based Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions

Flavien Moreau and Semih Üslü

2025/238: The Role of a Stabilizing Expenditure Rule in Fostering Macro-Fiscal Stability: Simulation-Based Evidence from Poland

Andrzej Torój, Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Rafał Chmura, Kareem Ismail, Dominika Kroschel, Waikei Lam, Agnieszka Szczypińska and Bartłomiej Wiśnicki

2025/237: Macroeconomic Effects of Lowering South Africa’s Inflation Target

Jana Bricco ('Gieck'), Mario Mansilla, Delia Velculescu and Philippe Wingender

2025/236: Behind Schedule? Assessing Global Developments in the Provision of Economic Statistics

Josefine Quast

2025/235: The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

Francisco Roldan and Cesar Sosa Padilla

2025/234: Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils Lehr and Pascual Restrepo