IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/170: Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios

Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López and Sha Yu

2025/169: The Impact of Central Bank Climate Communication on Green Bonds

Marina Conesa Martinez

2025/168: Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia

Natasha Che, Federico Diez, Anne Oeking and Weining Xin

2025/167: Impact of Cross-Border Migration on the Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation in Latin America and in the Caribbean Countries

Cassie Chen Xiang and Manuk Ghazanchyan

2025/166: Inside (the) Money Machine: Modeling Liquidity, Maturity and Credit Transformations

Shalva Mkhatrishvili

2025/165: Efficiency Aspects of the Value Added Tax

Ruud de Mooij, Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2025/164: Beyond Costs: The Dominant Role of Strategic Complementarities in Pricing

Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini, Dagoberto Quevedo and Marco Rojas

2025/163: Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Database

Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao and Robert Zymek

2025/162: Sign Restrictions with a New-Keynesian Macro Model: Results From a “Quasi-Agnostic” Identification Procedure

Gregorio Impavido

2025/161: Housing Booms and Productivity Growth

Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz and Lucy Qian Liu

2025/160: Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets

Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana and Shant Arzoumanian

2025/159: Making Cost Data Work for Public Financial Management

Lorena Rivero del Paso, Chloe Cho and Ramon Narvaez Terron

2025/158: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Consequences of Quantitative Easing

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Linde and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/157: Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean

Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kiliç Çelik and Masahiro Nishida

2025/156: Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo and A. Spence

2025/155: Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation

Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari and Yifan Tao

2025/154: Ramsey-Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan, Shu-Chun Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/153: Breaking Parity: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Currency Premia

Mai Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Oleg Itskhoki

2025/152: Monetary Policy Transmission to Lending Rates: Evidence from Brazil

Daniel Leigh and Rui Xu

2025/151: Sovereign Debt Auctions with Strategic Interactions

Ricardo Alves Monteiro and Stelios Fourakis

2025/150: Money Market Fund Growth During Hiking Cycles: A Global Analysis

Kleopatra Nikolaou

2025/149: Options for Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Framework

Rossen Rozenov, Waikei Lam, Yang Yang and Yinjie Yu

2025/148: Accounting and Fiscal Reporting in EU Countries

Sage De Clerck, Joseph Cavanagh and Mariano D'Amore

2025/147: Trade Partners’ Responses to US Tariffs

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2025/146: Financial Imbalances, Systemic Stress, and Macroprudential Implications

Knarik Ayvazyan and Etienne Yehoue

2025/145: Oil Shocks and Labor Market Developments

Diego Gomes, Lisa Kolovich and Hannah Yi Wei

2025/144: Building Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Persistent Temperature Changes: The Case of Peru

Zamid Aligishiev and Daria Kolpakova

2025/143: Industrial Policies and Firm Performance: A Nuanced Relationship

Rafael Machado Parente, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/142: The Impact of Debt and Deficits on Long-Term Interest Rates in the US

Davide Furceri, Carlos Goncalves and Hongchi Li

2025/141: Decrypting Crypto: How to Estimate International Stablecoin Flows

Marco Reuter

2025/140: Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition

Francesca Caselli and Allan Dizioli

2025/139: Navigating the Evolving Landscape of External Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa

Adrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire, Hamza Mighri, Can Sever and Luc Tucker

2025/138: Global Commodity Inflation Pass-through: Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States

Laron Alleyne and Patrick Blagrave

2025/137: Understanding Inflation Dynamics in Afghanistan

Karim Badr

2025/136: Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise?

Johannes Wiegand

2025/135: A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth

David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki and Christine Richmond

2025/134: Estimated Monthly National Accounts for the United States

Philip Barrett

2025/133: Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises

Camila Gutierrez, Javier Turen and Alejandro Vicondoa

2025/132: Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions

Stefano Di Bucchianico, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Giovanni Melina

2025/131: Strategies for Africa's Climate Resilience: Trade and Practices

Samantha Borkhoche, Eman Abdulla, Edward Gemayel, Vidhi Maheshwari and Faten Saliba

2025/130: The Drivers and Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Innovation: A Cross-Country Exploration

Zeina Hasna, Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Kamiar Mohaddes and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/129: Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting World

Tatjana Schulze and Weining Xin

2025/128: What Are Empirical Monetary Policy Shocks? Estimating the Term Structure of Policy News

Jonathan Adams and Philip Barrett

2025/127: Repo Market Volatility and the U.S. Debt Ceiling

Mai Dao, Brandon Tan and Jing Zhou

2025/126: Integrating Fragmented Networks: The Value of Interoperability in Money and Payments

Alexander Copestake, Divya Kirti, Maria Martinez Peria and Yao Zeng

2025/125: The EU's CBAM: Implications for Member States and Trading Partners

Geoffroy Dolphin and Gianluigi Ferrucci

2025/124: Personal Insolvency and Data Collection Systems

José Garrido, Jason Kilborn and Anjum Rosha

2025/123: Real Equilibrium Interest Rates in the Euro Area

Robert Beyer and Luis Brandão-Marques

2025/122: How Do Remittances Affect the Real Exchange Rate? An Empirical Investigation

Alina Carare, Juan Celis, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Yasumasa Morito

2025/121: A Quarterly Projection Model for Tonga

Sam Ouliaris, Celine Rochon and Daniel Taumoepeau

2025/120: Global Cross-Border Payments: A $1 Quadrillion Evolving Market?

Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat and Martina Hengge

2025/119: Testing the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in West and Central Africa

Abdoul Wane, Carlos de Resende and Jing Xie

2025/118: Should Tax Be King? The Debate over Tax Priority in Insolvency

Irving Aw, Brendan Crowley and José Garrido

2025/117: Forging Strength: Exploring the Dynamic Interplay between Institutions and State Capacity

Patrick Imam and Joao Jalles

2025/116: Growth, Interrupted: How Crises delay Global Convergence

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2025/115: Natural Bank Reliance

Hannah Winterberg

2025/114: Making the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework Fit for Purpose

Matthias Busse, Huidan Lin, Malhar Nabar and Jiae Yoo

2025/113: Lifting Binding Constraints on Growth in Europe: Actionable Priorities to Deepen the Single Market

Nathaniel Arnold, Allan Dizioli, Alexandra Fotiou, Jan-Martin Frie, Burcu Hacibedel, Tara Iyer, Huidan Lin, Malhar Nabar, Hui Tong and Frederik Toscani

2025/112: What is Needed for Convergence? The Role of Capital and Finance

Bryan Hardy and Can Sever

2025/111: Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries

Gabriela Cugat

2025/110: No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in Greece

Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel

2025/109: From Text to Quantified Insights: A Large-Scale LLM Analysis of Central Bank Communication

Thiago Silva, Kei Moriya and Romain Veyrune

2025/108: Cyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Policy Mix and Financial Friction Puzzle

Zamid Aligishiev and Hamed Ghiaie

2025/107: Interest Rate Sensitivity Scenarios to Guide Monetary Policy

Allan Dizioli

2025/106: Digitalization: A Catalyst for Intergenerational Occupational Mobility?

Mame Astou Diouf, Boileau Loko and Rasmané Ouedraogo

2025/105: Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk

Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani and Mike West

2025/104: Europe’s National-Level Structural Reform Priorities

Nina Budina, Oyun Adilbish, Diego Cerdeiro, Romain Duval, Balázs Égert, Dmitriy Kovtun, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Augustus Panton and Michelle Tejada

2025/103: Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States

Daniel Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu and Pedro Juca Maciel

2025/102: Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

JaeBin Ahn and Brandon Tan

2025/101: Fiscal Multipliers in Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan

2025/100: Labor Market Consequences of Homicides: Evidence from Mexico

Lorenzo Aldeco Leo, Matteo Ghilardi and Hugo Tuesta

2025/099: Laying the Ground for Scaling up Climate Finance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Edward Gemayel, Samuele Rosa, Vidhi Maheshwari, Christoph Ungerer and Peter Lindner

2025/098: Do Industrial Policies Increase Trade Competitiveness?

Yueling Huang, Sandra Baquie, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Yucheng Lu, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/097: Macro-Financial Policies and Vulnerabilities in IMF-Supported Programs

Yazan Al-Karablieh, José Marzluf, Hector Perez-Saiz, Azzam Santosa and Fabian Valencia

2025/096: From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Nanyu Chen and Melih Firat

2025/095: QPM-Based Analysis of Weather Shocks and Monetary Policy in Developing Countries

Valeriu Nalban and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/094: The Rise and Retreat of US Inflation: An Update

Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra

2025/093: Nowcasting Global Trade from Space

Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi and Jasper Verschuur

2025/092: Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa

Geoffrey Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian Nield, Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga and Aiulu Tolovaa

2025/091: The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge

Jorge Alvarez and Thomas Kroen

2025/090: Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards

Alessia De Stefani

2025/089: Leveraging Digital Technologies in Boosting Tax Collection

Manabu Nose, Nicola Pierri and Jiro Honda

2025/088: Testing the Liquidity Support Effects of the U.S. Treasury Buyback Program

Jing Zhou

2025/087: Preventing Fiscal Crises under Decentralization: Intergovernmental Policies and Institutions

Ryota Nakatani

2025/086: Debt-at-Risk

Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, Waikei Lam and Hongchi Li

2025/085: Using Simulations for Cyber Stress Testing Exercises

Tanai Khiaonarong, Kasperi Korpinen and Emran Islam

2025/084: Impact Dynamics of Natural Disasters and the Case of Pacific Island Countries

Choonsung Lim and Yue Zhou

2025/083: Fiscal Financing and Investment Irreversibility: The Role of Dividend Taxation

Matteo Ghilardi and Roy Zilberman

2025/082: Labor Market Matching Efficiency and Koreas Low Post-Pandemic Unemployment

Hua Chai

2025/081: Power Hungry: How AI Will Drive Energy Demand

Christian Bogmans, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Ganchimeg Ganpurev, Giovanni Melina, Andrea Pescatori and Sneha Thube

2025/080: Shifting Advantages: Do Subsidies Shape Cross-Border Investment?

Michele Ruta and Monika Sztajerowska

2025/079: Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation

Luis Jácome, Nicolas Magud, Samuel Pienknagura and Martin Uribe

2025/078: K Wasn’t Built in a Day

Adriano Fernandes and Rodolfo Rigato

2025/077: IMF-ENV: Integrating Climate, Energy, and Trade Policies in a General Equilibrium Framework

Jean Chateau, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Sneha Thube and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

2025/076: The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap

Eugenio Cerutti, Antonio Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina Tavares and Philippe Wingender

2025/075: “Checking the Receipts” Audits of Emergency Finance: A preliminary analysis of the implementation of the Letter of Intent commitment on audits in 50 countries

Sebastiaan Pompe, Alice French, Martin Aldcroft and Camilla Fredriksen

2025/074: A New GCC Fiscal Era – A Look at the Macro and Firm-Level Impact of Tax Reforms

Anja Baum, Dorothy Nampewo and Greta Polo

2025/073: Do ESG Considerations Matter for Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads?

Carmen Avila-Yiptong, Mahamoud Islam, Ayah Said and Chima Simpson-Bell

2025/072: Firm Financing During Sudden Stops: Can Governments Substitute Markets?

Miguel Acosta-Henao, Andrés Fernández, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

2025/071: Digital Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality in China

Yan Shen, Fei Han and Yanlong Li