IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/270: Underpriced and Overused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update

Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia Huitron, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa and Nate Vernon-Lin

2025/269: Financial Constraints and the Effectiveness of Green Financial Policies

Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, Germán Villegas-Bauer and Sharan Banerjee

2025/268: Nowcasting GCC GDP: A Machine Learning Solution for Enhanced Non-Oil GDP Prediction

Greta Polo, Yuan Gao Rollinson, Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Tongfang Yuan

2025/267: Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World

Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem Nechi and Subi Suvetha Velkumar

2025/266: Brazil's VAT Reform: Ensuring Revenue Neutrality

Ana Cebreiro Gomez, Christina Kolerus, Guilherme Dal Pizzol, Pablo Moreira and Miguel Pecho

2025/265: Stuck in the Middle with You? An Assessment of Income Dynamics in Indonesia

Florischa Tresnatri, Akbar Nikmatullah Dachlan, Galuh Chandra Wibowo and Rifat Pasha

2025/264: Cyclical Inequality in the Cost of Living and Implications for Monetary Policy

Ting Lan, Lerong Li and Minghao Li

2025/263: Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling

Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma and Petia Topalova

2025/262: Changes in Bank Lending Standards and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal, Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush, Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene and Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun

2025/261: Optimal FX Interventions with Limited Reserves

Marcin Kolasa, Oliver Vogt and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/260: Can Healthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from Korea

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Kemal Ozhan

2025/259: Reforms to Reduce China’s High Household Savings

Yizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui and Ding Hua

2025/258: Speaking to the Markets: The Role of IMF Announcements in Investors’ Confidence

Beatrice Maryline Sagna and Solo Zerbo

2025/257: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area

Giovanni Sciacovelli

2025/256: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?

Marijn Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea Presbitero and Zhao Zhang

2025/255: Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence

Michael Barczay, Shafik Hebous, Fayçal Sawadogo and Jean-François Wen

2025/254: The Food and Agriculture Sector in IMF Publications: A Text-Mining Analysis

Tewodaj Mogues and Papa Niang

2025/253: Good News Travels Fast: Global Demand Shocks, Oil Futures, and Emerging Markets Dynamics

Felipe Beltrán, David Coble Fernandez, Manuel Escobar and Felipe Rojas

2025/252: GDP Nowcasting Performance of Traditional Econometric Models vs Machine-Learning Algorithms: Simulation and Case Studies

Klakow Akepanidtaworn and Korkrid Akepanidtaworn

2025/251: Macro-Criticality of Water Resources

Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos

2025/250: Carbon Risk in Loan Pricing: Commitment Channels and Real Effects

Yao Dong, Martina Hengge, Fabian Valencia and Richard Varghese

2025/249: Crop Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Research and Development

Christian Ebeke and Mireille Ntsama Etoundi

2025/248: Inequality, Household Debt, and the Role of Social Protection in Thailand

Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Delechat, Seunghwan Kim, Ying Xu and Tamon Yungvichit

2025/247: Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050

Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano and Jeongwon Son

2025/246: The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies

Selim Elekdag, Mananirina Razafitsiory and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/245: Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30

Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin and Sunalika Singh

2025/244: The Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Volatility on Food Prices—Evidence for Uganda

Christopher Adam and Prabhmeet Kaur Matta

2025/243: Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles

Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova

2025/242: Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data

Marina Conesa Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Nan Li, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou and Andrea Presbitero

2025/241: Minimum Wage and Employment: Sectoral and Regional Perspectives

Yan Chen and Jiaxiong Yao

2025/240: Trade Dynamics in Sovereign Debt Crises

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, Yasumasa Morito and Akira Sasahara

2025/239: A Search-Based Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions

Flavien Moreau and Semih Üslü

2025/238: The Role of a Stabilizing Expenditure Rule in Fostering Macro-Fiscal Stability: Simulation-Based Evidence from Poland

Andrzej Torój, Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Rafał Chmura, Kareem Ismail, Dominika Kroschel, Waikei Lam, Agnieszka Szczypińska and Bartłomiej Wiśnicki

2025/237: Macroeconomic Effects of Lowering South Africa’s Inflation Target

Jana Bricco, Mario Mansilla, Delia Velculescu and Philippe Wingender

2025/236: Behind Schedule? Assessing Global Developments in the Provision of Economic Statistics

Josefine Quast

2025/235: The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

Francisco Roldan and Cesar Sosa Padilla

2025/234: Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils Lehr and Pascual Restrepo

2025/233: Agricultural Distortions and International Migration

Braulio Britos, Manuel Hernandez and Danilo Trupkin

2025/232: The Macroeconomic Impact of Earthquakes on Growth: A Tale from Two Datasets

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/231: The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation Expectations

Francisco Arizala, Santiago Bazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama and Shiqing Hua

2025/230: The ENV-FIBA Model for Climate Risk Analysis: Framework, Model Details and Guide

Marco Gross, Jinhyuk Yoo, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Salim Dehmej, Zulma Barrail and Hannah Sheldon

2025/229: The Labor Market Implications of Healthy Aging

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Ozhan

2025/228: Credit Loss in Translation: Informing Bank Provisions and Capital Buffer Requirements with Forward-Looking Credit Loss Distributions

Marco Gross and Laurent Millischer

2025/227: Macroeconomic Effects and Spillovers from Bank of Japan Unconventional Monetary Policy

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Danila Smirnov

2025/226: Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans

Stephen Ayerst, Nina Chebotareva, Oksana Dynnikova, Amanda Edwards and Charles Zhang

2025/225: A Quantitative Approach to Central Bank Haircuts and Counterparty Risk Management

Yuji Sakurai

2025/224: From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate

Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa

2025/223: Maximum Sustainable Debt Across Countries: An Assessment using P-Theory

Yongquan Cao, Wei Jiang, Waikei Lam and Neng Wang

2025/222: Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis

Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang and Rafael Machado Parente

2025/221: Currency Crises in the Post-Bretton Woods Era: A New Dataset of Large Depreciations

Alexander Culiuc and Hyunmin Park

2025/220: Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity

Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska and Yuting Wei

2025/219: Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev and Manabu Nose

2025/218: Earthquakes and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar and Dao Le-Van

2025/217: Parameter Proliferation in Nowcasting: Issues and Approaches—An Application to Nowcasting China’s Real GDP

Paul Cashin, Fei Han, Ivy Sabuga, Jing Xie and Fan Zhang

2025/216: Emerging Market Cycles: Twin-Balance Sheet Conditions and Macro- Financial Linkages

Soumya Bhadury, Bhanu Pratap and Jay Surti

2025/215: Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius

Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili and Valeriu Nalban

2025/214: Shaping Services Trade: The Heterogenous Effects of Withholding Taxes

Li Liu, Alexander Klemm and Parijat Lal

2025/213: The Israeli Structural Model

Daniel Baksa, Yotam Peterfreund, Nadav Podoler, Ivy Sabuga, Tanya Slobodnitsky and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/212: Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks

Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan

2025/211: Can Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies Improve the Delivery of Social Safety Nets?

Denis Nikitin, Johan Schmalholz and Carolina Bloch

2025/210: Inflation Determinants in Kazakhstan: A tale of (at least) two stories

Gregorio Impavido

2025/209: Closing the Gap: How Tax Administration Performance Shapes Compliance

Katherine Baer, Patricio Barra and Juan Carlos Benitez

2025/208: Commodity-driven Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Does Size Matter?

Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Maximiliano Jerez-Osses, Vida Maver, Jorge Miranda-Pinto and Jean-Marc Natal

2025/207: Monetary Policy and Housing Overvaluation

Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani and Rui Mano

2025/206: Credit where Credit is Due: Fiscal Consolidations, Sovereign Risk and Bank Credit

Antonio David, Samuel Pienknagura and Juan Yepez

2025/205: State Fragility: Towards a Conceptual Framework

Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk, Weining Xin and Harold Zavarce

2025/204: External Shocks and Monetary Policy Trade-offs in Low-Income Countries

Juan Passadore, Giovanni Sciacovelli, Filiz Unsal and Carlos van Hombeeck

2025/203: State Capacity, Institutions and Growth: Taxing for Takeoff—Revisiting the Tax Tipping Point

Matthieu Bellon and Ross Warwick

2025/202: Restructuring Sovereign Domestic Debt in Developing Countries

Eriko Togo, Hui Miao, Myrvin Anthony, Marie Kim, Joe Kogan and Shijia Luo

2025/201: The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on the Debt Distribution

Francesco Frangiamore, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat and Pietro Pizzuto

2025/200: Recycling Risk: Synthetic Risk Transfers

Fabio Cortes, Gonzalo Fernandez Dionis, Yiran Li, Silvia Ramirez and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2025/199: AI Projects in Financial Supervisory Authorities

Parma Bains, Gabriela Conde, Rangachary Ravikumar and Ebru Iskender

2025/198: Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Revisions since the Pandemic

Virginia Alonso-Albarran, Clara Arroyo, Ozlem Aydin, Hamid Davoodi, Waikei Lam, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Gabriel Hegab, Anh Nguyen, Natalia Salazar, Galen Sher, Alexandra Solovyeva and Nino Tchelishvili

2025/197: Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys

Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid

2025/196: How Do High Interest Rates Affect Banks: The Roles of Loan Losses and Macroprudential Policy

Romain Bouis, Sumaiyah Mirza and Erlend Nier

2025/195: Fiscal Rules, Robust Correction Mechanisms, and Sovereign Spreads

Julien Acalin, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2025/194: Euro Area Financial Fragmentation and Bond Market Stability

Benjamin Mosk and Nander de Vette

2025/192: Credit and Product Innovation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India

Siddharth George, Divya Kirti, Nils Olle Herman Lange, Maria Martinez Peria and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan

2025/191: Unbalanced Trade 2.0

Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek

2025/190: Informality and Shock Propagation in an Open Economy

Sandra Lizarazo and Brandon Tan

2025/189: Economic Impact of G20 Compact with Africa Initiative on Member Countries

Edward Gemayel, Asel Isakova and Vidhi Maheshwari

2025/188: Bottlenecks to Private Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Firm-Level Analysis

Razan Amine, Qianqian Zhang, Shushanik Hakobyan and Ankita Goel

2025/187: Tax Reform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye

Silvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald and Carolina Osorio-Buitron

2025/186: Blockchain Consensus Mechanisms: A Primer for Supervisors (2025 Update)

Parma Bains

2025/185: Optimal Policy for Financial Market Tokenization

Itai Agur and Alexander Copestake

2025/184: The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities

Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan and TengTeng Xu

2025/183: Did R&D Misallocation Contribute to Slower Growth?

Nils Lehr

2025/182: Macroeconomic Exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia

Mariz Abdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling and Dalia Kadissi

2025/181: Targeted Transparency: Sectoral Approach to Beneficial Ownership in Procurement and Real Estate

Ivana Rossi, Chady El Khoury, Indulekha Thomas, Luisa Malcherek and Mohammed Al Janahi

2025/180: Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico

Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama and Hugo Tuesta

2025/179: Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs of Domestic Debt Restructurings

Jean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi

2025/178: Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy

Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath and Arnaud Mehl

2025/177: Monetary Policy Transmission in Euroized Countries: Evidence from Emerging Europe

Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski, Mengxue Wang and Zeju Zhu

2025/176: Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges

Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez and Li Zeng

2025/175: Sri Lanka’s Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Lessons from Complex Processes

Peter Breuer, Sandesh Dhungana and Mike Li

2025/174: Gulf Cooperation Council Diversification: The Role of Foreign Investments and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin

2025/173: Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Results With a Small Macro Model

Gregorio Impavido

2025/172: A Python Package to Assist Macroframework Forecasting: Concepts and Examples

Sakai Ando, Shuvam Das and Sultan Orazbayev

2025/171: Payment Frictions, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates

Marco Reuter, Itai Agur, Alexander Copestake, Maria Martinez Peria and Ken Teoh

2025/170: Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios

Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López and Sha Yu