IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/209: Closing the Gap: How Tax Administration Performance Shapes Compliance

Katherine Baer, Patricio Barra and Juan Carlos Benitez

2025/208: Commodity-driven Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Does Size Matter?

Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Maximiliano Jerez-Osses, Vida Maver, Jorge Miranda-Pinto and Jean-Marc Natal

2025/207: Monetary Policy and Housing Overvaluation

Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani and Rui Mano

2025/206: Credit where Credit is Due: Fiscal Consolidations, Sovereign Risk and Bank Credit

Antonio David, Samuel Pienknagura and Juan Yepez

2025/205: State Fragility: Towards a Conceptual Framework

Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk, Weining Xin and Harold Zavarce

2025/204: External Shocks and Monetary Policy Trade-offs in Low-Income Countries

Juan Passadore, Giovanni Sciacovelli, Filiz Unsal and Carlos van Hombeeck

2025/203: State Capacity, Institutions and Growth: Taxing for Takeoff—Revisiting the Tax Tipping Point

Matthieu Bellon and Ross Warwick

2025/202: Restructuring Sovereign Domestic Debt in Developing Countries

Eriko Togo, Hui Miao, Myrvin Anthony, Marie Kim, Joe Kogan and Shijia Luo

2025/201: The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on the Debt Distribution

Francesco Frangiamore, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat and Pietro Pizzuto

2025/200: Recycling Risk: Synthetic Risk Transfers

Fabio Cortes, Gonzalo Fernandez Dionis, Yiran Li, Silvia Ramirez and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2025/199: AI Projects in Financial Supervisory Authorities

Parma Bains, Gabriela Conde, Rangachary Ravikumar and Ebru Iskender

2025/198: Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Revisions since the Pandemic

Virginia Alonso-Albarran, Clara Arroyo, Ozlem Aydin, Hamid Davoodi, Waikei Lam, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Gabriel Hegab, Anh Nguyen, Natalia Salazar, Galen Sher, Alexandra Solovyeva and Nino Tchelishvili

2025/197: Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys

Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid

2025/196: How Do High Interest Rates Affect Banks: The Roles of Loan Losses and Macroprudential Policy

Romain Bouis, Sumaiyah Mirza and Erlend Nier

2025/195: Fiscal Rules, Robust Correction Mechanisms, and Sovereign Spreads

Julien Acalin, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2025/194: Euro Area Financial Fragmentation and Bond Market Stability

Benjamin Mosk and Nander de Vette

2025/192: Credit and Product Innovation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India

Siddharth George, Divya Kirti, Nils Olle Herman Lange, Maria Martinez Peria and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan

2025/191: Unbalanced Trade 2.0

Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek

2025/190: Informality and Shock Propagation in an Open Economy

Sandra Lizarazo and Brandon Tan

2025/189: Economic Impact of G20 Compact with Africa Initiative on Member Countries

Edward Gemayel, Asel Isakova and Vidhi Maheshwari

2025/188: Bottlenecks to Private Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Firm-Level Analysis

Razan Amine, Qianqian Zhang, Shushanik Hakobyan and Ankita Goel

2025/187: Tax Reform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye

Silvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald and Carolina Osorio-Buitron

2025/186: Blockchain Consensus Mechanisms: A Primer for Supervisors (2025 Update)

Parma Bains

2025/185: Optimal Policy for Financial Market Tokenization

Itai Agur and Alexander Copestake

2025/184: The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities

Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan and TengTeng Xu

2025/183: Did R&D Misallocation Contribute to Slower Growth?

Nils Lehr

2025/182: Macroeconomic Exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia

Mariz Abdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling and Dalia Kadissi

2025/181: Targeted Transparency: Sectoral Approach to Beneficial Ownership in Procurement and Real Estate

Ivana Rossi, Chady El Khoury, Indulekha Thomas, Luisa Malcherek and Mohammed Al Janahi

2025/180: Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico

Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama and Hugo Tuesta

2025/179: Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs of Domestic Debt Restructurings

Jean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi

2025/178: Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy

Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath and Arnaud Mehl

2025/177: Monetary Policy Transmission in Euroized Countries: Evidence from Emerging Europe

Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski, Mengxue Wang and Zeju Zhu

2025/176: Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges

Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez and Li Zeng

2025/175: Sri Lanka’s Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Lessons from Complex Processes

Peter Breuer, Sandesh Dhungana and Mike Li

2025/174: Gulf Cooperation Council Diversification: The Role of Foreign Investments and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin

2025/173: Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Results With a Small Macro Model

Gregorio Impavido

2025/172: A Python Package to Assist Macroframework Forecasting: Concepts and Examples

Sakai Ando, Shuvam Das and Sultan Orazbayev

2025/171: Payment Frictions, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates

Marco Reuter, Itai Agur, Alexander Copestake, Maria Martinez Peria and Ken Teoh

2025/170: Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios

Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López and Sha Yu

2025/169: The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Sustainable Finance Instruments

Marina Conesa Martinez

2025/168: Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia

Natasha Che, Federico Diez, Anne Oeking and Weining Xin

2025/167: Impact of Cross-Border Migration on the Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation in Latin America and in the Caribbean Countries

Cassie Chen Xiang and Manuk Ghazanchyan

2025/166: Inside (the) Money Machine: Modeling Liquidity, Maturity and Credit Transformations

Shalva Mkhatrishvili

2025/165: Efficiency Aspects of the Value Added Tax

Ruud de Mooij, Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2025/164: Beyond Costs: The Dominant Role of Strategic Complementarities in Pricing

Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini, Dagoberto Quevedo and Marco Rojas

2025/163: Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Research Dataset

Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao and Robert Zymek

2025/162: Sign Restrictions with a New-Keynesian Macro Model: Results From a “Quasi-Agnostic” Identification Procedure

Gregorio Impavido

2025/161: Housing Booms and Productivity Growth

Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz and Lucy Qian Liu

2025/160: Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets

Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana and Shant Arzoumanian

2025/159: Making Cost Data Work for Public Financial Management

Lorena Rivero del Paso, Chloe Cho and Ramon Narvaez Terron

2025/158: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Consequences of Quantitative Easing

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Linde and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/157: Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean

Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kiliç Çelik and Masahiro Nishida

2025/156: Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo and A. Spence

2025/155: Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation

Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari and Yifan Tao

2025/154: Ramsey-Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan, Shu-Chun Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/153: Breaking Parity: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Currency Premia

Mai Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Oleg Itskhoki

2025/152: Monetary Policy Transmission to Lending Rates: Evidence from Brazil

Daniel Leigh and Rui Xu

2025/151: Sovereign Debt Auctions with Strategic Interactions

Ricardo Alves Monteiro and Stelios Fourakis

2025/150: Money Market Fund Growth During Hiking Cycles: A Global Analysis

Kleopatra Nikolaou

2025/149: Options for Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Framework

Rossen Rozenov, Waikei Lam, Yang Yang and Yinjie Yu

2025/148: Accounting and Fiscal Reporting in EU Countries

Sage De Clerck, Joseph Cavanagh and Mariano D'Amore

2025/147: Trade Partners’ Responses to US Tariffs

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2025/146: Financial Imbalances, Systemic Stress, and Macroprudential Implications

Knarik Ayvazyan and Etienne Yehoue

2025/145: Oil Shocks and Labor Market Developments

Diego Gomes, Lisa Kolovich and Hannah Yi Wei

2025/144: Building Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Persistent Temperature Changes: The Case of Peru

Zamid Aligishiev and Daria Kolpakova

2025/143: Industrial Policies and Firm Performance: A Nuanced Relationship

Rafael Machado Parente, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/142: The Impact of Debt and Deficits on Long-Term Interest Rates in the US

Davide Furceri, Carlos Goncalves and Hongchi Li

2025/141: Decrypting Crypto: How to Estimate International Stablecoin Flows

Marco Reuter

2025/140: Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition

Francesca Caselli and Allan Dizioli

2025/139: Navigating the Evolving Landscape of External Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa

Adrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire, Hamza Mighri, Can Sever and Luc Tucker

2025/138: Global Commodity Inflation Pass-through: Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States

Laron Alleyne and Patrick Blagrave

2025/137: Understanding Inflation Dynamics in Afghanistan

Karim Badr

2025/136: Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise?

Johannes Wiegand

2025/135: A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth

David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki and Christine Richmond

2025/134: Estimated Monthly National Accounts for the United States

Philip Barrett

2025/133: Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises

Camila Gutierrez, Javier Turen and Alejandro Vicondoa

2025/132: Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions

Stefano Di Bucchianico, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Giovanni Melina

2025/131: Strategies for Africa's Climate Resilience: Trade and Practices

Samantha Borkhoche, Eman Abdulla, Edward Gemayel, Vidhi Maheshwari and Faten Saliba

2025/130: The Drivers and Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Innovation: A Cross-Country Exploration

Zeina Hasna, Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Kamiar Mohaddes and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/129: Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting World

Tatjana Schulze and Weining Xin

2025/128: What Are Empirical Monetary Policy Shocks? Estimating the Term Structure of Policy News

Jonathan Adams and Philip Barrett

2025/127: Repo Market Volatility and the U.S. Debt Ceiling

Mai Dao, Brandon Tan and Jing Zhou

2025/126: Integrating Fragmented Networks: The Value of Interoperability in Money and Payments

Alexander Copestake, Divya Kirti, Maria Martinez Peria and Yao Zeng

2025/125: The EU's CBAM: Implications for Member States and Trading Partners

Geoffroy Dolphin and Gianluigi Ferrucci

2025/124: Personal Insolvency and Data Collection Systems

José Garrido, Jason Kilborn and Anjum Rosha

2025/123: Real Equilibrium Interest Rates in the Euro Area

Robert Beyer and Luis Brandão-Marques

2025/122: How Do Remittances Affect the Real Exchange Rate? An Empirical Investigation

Alina Carare, Juan Celis, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Yasumasa Morito

2025/121: A Quarterly Projection Model for Tonga

Sam Ouliaris, Celine Rochon and Daniel Taumoepeau

2025/120: Global Cross-Border Payments: A $1 Quadrillion Evolving Market?

Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat and Martina Hengge

2025/119: Testing the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in West and Central Africa

Abdoul Wane, Carlos de Resende and Jing Xie

2025/118: Should Tax Be King? The Debate over Tax Priority in Insolvency

Irving Aw, Brendan Crowley and José Garrido

2025/117: Forging Strength: Exploring the Dynamic Interplay between Institutions and State Capacity

Patrick Imam and Joao Jalles

2025/116: Growth, Interrupted: How Crises delay Global Convergence

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2025/115: Natural Bank Reliance

Hannah Winterberg

2025/114: Making the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework Fit for Purpose

Matthias Busse, Huidan Lin, Malhar Nabar and Jiae Yoo

2025/113: Lifting Binding Constraints on Growth in Europe: Actionable Priorities to Deepen the Single Market

Nathaniel Arnold, Allan Dizioli, Alexandra Fotiou, Jan-Martin Frie, Burcu Hacibedel, Tara Iyer, Huidan Lin, Malhar Nabar, Hui Tong and Frederik Toscani

2025/112: What is Needed for Convergence? The Role of Capital and Finance

Bryan Hardy and Can Sever

2025/111: Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries

Gabriela Cugat

2025/110: No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in Greece

Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel

2025/109: From Text to Quantified Insights: A Large-Scale LLM Analysis of Central Bank Communication

Thiago Silva, Kei Moriya and Romain Veyrune