IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2023/191: ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks

Nuri Baek, Kaustubh Chahande, Kodjovi Eklou, Tidiane Kinda, Vatsal Nahata, Umang Rawat and Ara Stepanyan

2023/190: One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts

Anil Ari, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski and Wei Zhao

2023/189: When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?

Alejandro Badel and Rishi Goyal

2023/188: Dining and Wining During the Pandemic? A Quasi-Experiment on Tax Cuts and Consumer Spending in Lithuania

Serhan Cevik

2023/187: Debtor (Non-)Participation in Sovereign Debt Relief: A Real Option Approach

Danny Cassimon, Dennis Essers and Andrea Presbitero

2023/186: The Role of Structural Fiscal Policy on Female Labor Force Participation in OECD Countries

Miyoko Asai, Qiaoe Chen, Jiro Honda, Xingwei Hu and Qianqian Zhang

2023/185: Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

Shant Arzoumanian

2023/184: Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

Etienne Espagne, William Oman, Jean-François Mercure, Romain Svartzman, Ulrich Volz, Hector Pollitt, Gregor Semieniuk and Emanuele Campiglio

2023/183: Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks

Caterina Lepore and Roshen Fernando

2023/182: Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa

Olivier Bizimana and Shant Arzoumanian

2023/181: Good Supervision: Lessons from the Field

Tobias Adrian, Marina Moretti, Ana Carvalho, Hee Chon, Katharine Seal, Fabiana Melo and Jay Surti

2023/180: Environmental Policies and Innovation in Renewable Energy

Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Pietro Pizzuto and Nadia Shakoor

2023/179: Modeling the Reserve Demand to Facilitate Central Bank Operations

Zhuohui Chen, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Romain Veyrune

2023/178: Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation

Mai Dao, Allan Dizioli, Chris Jackson, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Daniel Leigh

2023/177: The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts, and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin and Todd Messer

2023/176: From Extreme Events to Extreme Seasons: Financial Stability Risks of Climate Change in Mexico

Michaela Dolk, Dimitrios Laliotis and Sujan Lamichhane

2023/175: Delays in Climate Transition Can Increase Financial Tail Risks: A Global Lesson from a Study in Mexico

Dimitrios Laliotis and Sujan Lamichhane

2023/174: Default Risk and Transition Dynamics with Carbon Shocks

Sujan Lamichhane

2023/173: Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey

David Aikman, Daniel Beale, Adam Brinley-Codd, Anne-Caroline Hüser, Giovanni Covi and Caterina Lepore

2023/172: An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan

Adel Al-Sharkas, Nedal Al-Azzam, Sarah AlTalafha, Rasha Abu Shawish, Ahmad Shalein, Auday Rawwaqah, Amany Al-Rawashdeh, Daniel Baksa, Philippe Karam and Jan Vlcek

2023/171: Macroprudential Policies and Capital Controls Over Financial Cycles

Maria Arakelyan, Adam Gersl and Martin Schindler

2023/170: Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity

Bas Bakker

2023/169: IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update

Simon Black, Antung Liu, Ian Parry and Nate Vernon-Lin

2023/168: Reported Social Unrest Index: August 2023 Update

Philip Barrett and Euihyun Bae

2023/167: How Nations Become Fragile: An AI-Augmented Bird’s-Eye View (with a Case Study of South Sudan)

Tohid Atashbar

2023/166: Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework

Diogo Baptista, John Spray and Filiz Unsal

2023/165: The Elasticity of Substitution Between Skilled and Unskilled Labor in Developing Countries: A Directed Technical Change Perspective

Alberto Behar

2023/164: The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

Camila Casas, Sergii Meleshchuk and Yannick Timmer

2023/163: The Crypto Cycle and US Monetary Policy

Natasha Che, Alexander Copestake, Davide Furceri and Tammaro Terracciano

2023/162: Revisiting Covid Scarring in Emerging Markets

Chris Jackson and Jason Lu

2023/161: Integrated Monetary and Financial Policies for Small Open Economies

Suman Basu, Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath, Francisco Roch and Filiz Unsal

2023/160: Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2023/159: International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax

Michael Keen, Li Liu and Hayley Pallan

2023/158: Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Omer Faruk Akbal, Seung Mo Choi, Futoshi Narita and Jiaxiong Yao

2023/157: Predicting Financial Crises: The Role of Asset Prices

Tristan Hennig, Plamen Iossifov and Richard Varghese

2023/156: Do Corporate Bond Shocks Affect Commercial Bank Lending?

Mario Catalan and Alexander Hoffmaister

2023/155: Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Capital-Skill Complementarity

Anna Belianska

2023/154: Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

Waikei Lam and Marialuz Moreno Badia

2023/153: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on a Nowcast

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2023/152: Constructing a Positive Shock: Growth Through the Lens of Option Pricing

Mehmet Cangul

2023/151: Digital Tokens: A Legal Perspective

José Garrido

2023/150: Household Savings in Selected Southern European Countries Evidence from Cross-Country Micro-Level Data

Kamil Dybczak, Shiqing Hua, Mariusz Jarmuzek, Ruifeng Zhang and Yipei Zhang

2023/149: Shared Problem, Shared Solution: Benefits from Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in the Euro Area

Robert Beyer, Rupa Duttagupta, Alexandra Fotiou, Keiko Honjo, Mark Horton, Zoltán Jakab, Vina Nguyen, Rafael Portillo, Jesper Lindé, Nujin Suphaphiphat and Li Zeng

2023/148: Evolution of National Accounts Statistics Compilation Practices Over the Period 2018 to 2021 in 189 Economies

Anthony Silungwe

2023/147: Inequality and Poverty in India: Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Response

Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Mattia Coppo, Nasser Khalil, Shinya Kotera and Filiz Unsal

2023/146: The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market

Kodjovi Eklou

2023/145: Raising Rates with a Large Balance Sheet: The Eurosystem’s Net Income and its Fiscal Implications

Nazim Belhocine, Ashok Bhatia and Jan Frie

2023/144: Taxing Cryptocurrencies

Katherine Baer, Ruud A. Mooij, Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2023/143: Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations

Luis Brandão-Marques, Marco Casiraghi, R. Gaston Gelos, Olamide Harrison and Gunes Kamber

2023/142: Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties

Ha Nguyen

2023/141: Decomposing Climate Risks in Stock Markets

Yuanchen Yang, Chengyu Huang and Yuchen Zhang

2023/140: The Impact of Climate Policy on Oil and Gas Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti

2023/139: Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks

Antonio David and Can Sever

2023/138: The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach

Emilio Fernández Corugedo, Andres Gonzalez and Alejandro Guerson

2023/137: A Note of Caution on the Relation Between Money Growth and Inflation

Helge Berger, Sune Karlsson and Pär Österholm

2023/136: Migration, Search and Skill Heterogeneity

Myrto Oikonomou

2023/135: An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis

Kaili Chen, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Hou Wang, Pawel Zabczyk and Jianping Zhou

2023/134: Rising Child Poverty in Europe: Mitigating the Scarring from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jean-Jacques Hallaert, Iglika Vassileva and Tingyun Chen

2023/133: Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Reduce Fiscal Policy Pro-cyclicality? New Evidence Using a Non-Parametric Approach

Ali Al-Sadiq and Diego Alejandro Gutiérrez

2023/132: Foreign Currency Balance Sheets in Türkiye: Exposure and Interconnectedness

Alex Pienkowski

2023/131: Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Frederik Toscani and Jing Zhou

2023/130: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors

William Gbohoui, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Yirbehogre Modeste Some

2023/129: External Shocks, Policies, and Tail-Shifts in Real Exchange Rates

Nicolas Magud and Samuel Pienknagura

2023/128: The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change

Simon Black, Ian Parry, Victor Mylonas, Nate Vernon-Lin and Karlygash Zhunussova

2023/127: Central Bank Digital Currency Adoption: A Two-Sided Model

Brandon Tan

2023/126: Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles

Can Sever

2023/125: The Rise of the Walking Dead: Zombie Firms Around the World

Bruno Albuquerque and Roshan Iyer

2023/124: Trading with Friends in Uncertain Times

Adam Jakubik and Michele Ruta

2023/123: Some Lessons from Asian E-Money Schemes for the Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency

Tao Sun and Ryan Rizaldy

2023/122: Digitalization and Gender Equality in Political Leadership in Sub-Saharan Africa

Diego Gomes and Carine Meyimdjui

2023/121: Bank Competition and Household Privacy in a Digital Payment Monopoly

Itai Agur, Anil Ari and Giovanni Dell'ariccia

2023/120: Restructuring Reforms for Green Growth

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2023/119: Macroprudential Policy and Bank Systemic Risk: Does Inflation Targeting Matter?

Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon, Woon Gyu Choi and Farah Mugrabi

2023/118: The Distributional and Fiscal Implications of Public Utility Pricing

David Coady, Samir Jahan, Fabiana Machado and Mengfei Gu

2023/117: Fiscal Anatomy of Two Crises and an Interlude

Xuehui Han, Paolo Mauro and John Ralyea

2023/116: Cars and the Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers

Oya Celasun, Galen Sher, Petia Topalova and Jing Zhou

2023/115: Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies

John Hooley, Claney Lattie and Peter Stella

2023/114: Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions

John Hooley, Ashraf Khan, Claney Lattie, Istvan Mak, Natalia Salazar, Amanda Sayegh and Peter Stella

2023/113: Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Developments

Bruno Casella, Maria Borga and Konstantin Wacker

2023/112: Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?

Marina Conesa Martinez, Futoshi Narita and Chris Papageorgiou

2023/111: Dollar Exchange Rate volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data

Kodjovi Eklou

2023/110: Financial Heterogeneity, Investment, and Firm Interactions

Yang Liu

2023/109: The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Tigran Poghosyan

2023/108: Climate Mitigation Policy in Türkiye

Ian Parry, Danielle Minnett and Karlygash Zhunussova

2023/107: Spillovers to Emerging Markets from US Economic News and Monetary Policy

Philipp Engler, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher

2023/106: Measuring the Stances of Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Francis Vitek

2023/105: Too Low for Too Long: Could Extended Periods of Ultra Easy Monetary Policy Have Harmful Effects?

Etibar Jafarov and Enrico Minnella

2023/104: Nigeria’s eNaira, One Year After

Jookyung Ree

2023/103: The Extent and Composition of Automatic Stabilization in EU Countries

David Coady, Silvia De Poli, Adrián Hernández, Andrea Papini and Alberto Tumino

2023/102: How We Missed the Inflation Surge: An Anatomy of Post-2020 Inflation Forecast Errors

Christoffer Koch and Diaa Noureldin

2023/101: Benchmarking Infrastructure Using Public Investment Efficiency Frontiers

Javier Kapsoli, Tewodaj Mogues and Genevieve Verdier

2023/100: Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?

Anil Ari, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Shruti Mishra

2023/099: Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers

Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, Chris Papageorgiou and Pauline Wibaux

2023/098: It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2023/097: Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition

Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2023/096: ECB Euro Liquidity Lines

Silvia Albrizio, Iván Kataryniuk, Luis Molina Sánchez and Jan Schäfer

2023/095: Firm-level Digitalization and Resilience to Shocks: Role of Fiscal Policy

Manabu Nose and Jiro Honda

2023/094: Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic

Nordine Abidi, Mehdi Akhbari, Bashar Hlayhel and Sahra Sakha

2023/093: The Effects of Inflation on Public Finances

Daniel Garcia-Macia

2023/092: The Right Tool for the Job? Mortgage Distress and Personal Insolvency during the European Debt Crisis

Wolfgang Bergthaler, Jose Garrido and Anjum Rosha