IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2024/034: Political Fragility: Coups d’État and Their Drivers

Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk Ariss, Weining Xin and Harold Zavarce

2024/033: Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold Evidence for the UK

Li Liu, Ben Lockwood and Eddy Tam

2024/032: Constraints on Trade in the LAC Region

Rina Bhattacharya and Samuel Pienknagura

2024/031: Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area

Maximilian Konradt, Thomas McGregor and Frederik Toscani

2024/030: Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

2024/029: The Legal Foundations of Public Debt Transparency: Aligning the Law with Good Practices

Karla Vasquez, Alissa Ashcroft, Kikachukwu Alex-Okoh, Alessandro Gullo, Olya Kroytor, Yan Liu, Mia Pineda and Ron Snipeliski

2024/028: Platform Precommitment via Decentralization

Marco Reuter

2024/027: Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis

David Amaglobeli, Joaquim Guilhoto, Samir Jahan, Salma Khalid, Waikei Lam, Gregory Legoff, Brent Meyer, Xuguang Simon Sheng, Pawel Smietanka, Sonya Waddell and Daniel Weitz

2024/026: The Impact of Derivatives Collateralization on Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Investment Fund Sector

Audrius Jukonis, Elisa Letizia and Linda Rousová

2024/025: U.S. Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic

Euihyun Bae, Andrew Hodge and Anke Weber

2024/024: Emissions Reduction, Fiscal Costs, and Macro Effects: A Model-based Assessment of IRA Climate Measures and Complementary Policies

Simon Voigts and Anne-Charlotte Paret

2024/023: The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy

Bruno Albuquerque, Martin Iseringhausen and Frederic Opitz

2024/022: Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand

Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Delechat, Thanaphol Kongphalee, Vatsal Nahata, Mouhamadou Sy, Pym Manopimoke and Tamon Yungvichit

2024/021: Geopolitics and International Trade: The Democracy Advantage

Serhan Cevik

2024/020: Is Schumpeter Right? Fintech and Economic Growth

Serhan Cevik

2024/019: ASAP: A Conceptual Model for Digital Asset Platforms

Victor Budau and Herve Tourpe

2024/018: In Search of the Origin of Original Sin Dissipation

Bada Han, Jangyoun Lee and Taehee Oh

2024/017: Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk Taking?

Selim Elekdag, Drilona Emrullahu and Sami Ben Naceur

2024/016: The Leisure Gains from International Trade

Agustin Velasquez

2024/015: Fueling or Following Growth? Causal Effects of Capital Inflows on Recipient Economies

Nicolas End

2024/014: U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations

Giovanni Ugazio and Weining Xin

2024/013: The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty

Lukas Boer and Malte Rieth

2024/012: Digitalization and Employment Gender Gaps During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

Yuanchen Yang, Manuk Ghazanchyan, Silvia Granados-Ibarra and Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza

2024/011: Automation and Welfare: The Role of Bequests and Education

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alexei Goumilevski and Alex Mourmouras

2024/010: Costly Increases in Public Debt when r

Yongquan Cao, Vitor Gaspar and Adrian Peralta-Alva

2024/009: Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Interest Rates: Stylized Facts from 30 European Countries

Robert Beyer, Ruo Chen, Florian Misch, Claire Li, Ezgi Ozturk and Lev Ratnovski

2024/008: What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic?

Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Michael Girard

2024/007: The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory

Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Chris Jackson and Rafael Portillo

2024/006: Energy Security and The Green Transition

Jaden Kim, Augustus Panton and Gregor Schwerhoff

2024/005: Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?

Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball

2024/004: Fraying Threads: Exclusion and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif and Mahmoud El-Gamal

2024/003: Searching for Wage Growth: Policy Responses to the “New Machine Age”

Andrew Berg, Edward Buffie, Mariarosaria Comunale, Chris Papageorgiou and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2024/002: Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe

Diva Astinova, Romain Duval, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Ben Park, Ippei Shibata and Frederik Toscani

2024/001: The Return of Industrial Policy in Data

Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Fernando Martín and Michele Ruta

2023/270: Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade

Shushanik Hakobyan, Sergii Meleshchuk and Robert Zymek

2023/269: Getting to Know GMMET: The Global Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition

Benjamin Carton, Christopher Evans, Dirk Muir and Simon Voigts

2023/268: Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia

Ninghui Li and Thomas Gade

2023/267: Designing a Presumptive Income Tax Based on Turnover in Countries with Large Informal Sectors

Feng Wei and Jean-Francois Wen

2023/266: Flattening the Curve and the Flight of the Rich: Pandemic-Induced Shifts in US and European Housing Markets

Nina Biljanovska and Giovanni Dell'ariccia

2023/265: Non-traded Gains From Trade - Selection in the Non-Traded Sector: Evidence from Brazil

Rafael Machado Parente and Rowan Shi

2023/264: Inflation Indexation in Public Finances: A Global Dataset on Current Practices

Vybhavi Balasundharam, Arika Kayastha and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2023/263: Inflation Dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): What is the Role of External Factors?

Fozan Fareed, Abolfazl Rezghi and Charlotte Sandoz

2023/262: Household Debt and Borrower-Based Measures in Finland: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model

Fumitaka Nakamura

2023/261: Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Habtamu Fuje, Jiaxiong Yao, Seung Mo Choi and Hamza Mighri

2023/260: Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?

Jiaqian Chen, Era Dabla-Norris, Carlos Goncalves, Zoltán Jakab and Jesper Lindé

2023/259: The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves

Philipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher

2023/258: How the Brady Plan Delivered on Debt Relief: Lessons and Implications

Neil Shenai and Marijn Bolhuis

2023/257: High-Dimensional Covariance Matrix Estimation: Shrinkage Toward a Diagonal Target

Sakai Ando and Mingmei Xiao

2023/256: Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe

Serhan Cevik and Sadhna Naik

2023/255: How Far Has Globalization Gone? A Tale of Two Regions

Rodolfo Campos, Samuel Pienknagura and Jacopo Timini

2023/254: Optimal Taxation of Inflation

Damien Capelle and Yang Liu

2023/253: The Dark Side of the Moon? Fintech and Financial Stability

Serhan Cevik

2023/252: Lawful Progress: Unveiling the Laws That Reshape Women’s Work Decisions

Anna Fruttero, Diego Gomes and Nishtha Sharma

2023/251: Monetary Policy Frameworks and Communication in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Omer Faruk Akbal, Klakow Akepanidtaworn, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mariarosaria Comunale, Marina Conesa Martinez and Filiz Unsal

2023/250: Climate and Cross-Border Migration

Paula Beltran and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

2023/249: Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money

Anh Le, Alexander Copestake, Brandon Tan, Shanaka Peiris and Umang Rawat

2023/248: Navigating the Well-Being Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area

Mehdi El Herradi and Aurélien Leroy

2023/247: Housing Affordability: A New Dataset

Nina Biljanovska, Chenxu Fu and Deniz Igan

2023/246: Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood

Serhan Cevik, Nadeem Ilahi, Krzysztof Krogulski, Grace Li, Sabiha Mohona and Yueshu Zhao

2023/245: Geoeconomic Fragmentation: What’s at Stake for the EU

Chikako Baba, Ting Lan, Aiko Mineshima, Florian Misch, Magali Pinat, Asghar Shahmoradi, Jiaxiong Yao and Rachel van Elkan

2023/244: Taming Financial Dollarization: Determinants and Effective Policies – The Case of Uruguay

Jose P Mauricio Vargas and Jesus Sanchez

2023/243: Monetary Policy Design with Recurrent Climate Shocks

Vimal Thakoor and Engin Kara

2023/242: Mitigating Climate Change at the Firm Level: Mind the Laggards

Damien Capelle, Divya Kirti, Nicola Pierri and German Villegas Bauer

2023/241: Predicting the Law: Artificial Intelligence Findings from the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database

Khaled AlAjmi, Jose Deodoro, Ashraf Khan and Kei Moriya

2023/240: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

Tannous Kass-Hanna, Julien Reynaud and Chris Walker

2023/239: Is FinTech Eating the Bank's Lunch?

Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon, Selim Elekdag and Drilona Emrullahu

2023/238: Mobile Money, Perception about Cash, and Financial Inclusion: Learning from Uganda’s Micro-Level Data

Felix Simione and Tara Muehlschlegel

2023/237: Currencies of External Balance Sheets

Cian Allen, Deepali Gautam and Luciana Juvenal

2023/236: Central Bank Digital Currency and Bank Disintermediation in a Portfolio Choice Model

Huifeng Chang, Federico Grinberg, Lucyna Gornicka, Marcello Miccoli and Brandon Tan

2023/235: FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Andrew Berg, Yaroslav Hul, Philippe Karam, Adam Remo and Diego Rodriguez Guzman

2023/234: Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think

Mengqi Wang and Swarnali Hannan

2023/233: The Pass-through of Wages to Consumer Prices in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Sectoral Data in the U.S

Moya Chin and Li Lin

2023/232: The Economic Consequences of Social Unrest: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings

Philip Barrett, Thomas Boulton and Terry Nixon

2023/231: Quantifying the Revenue Yields from Tax Administration Reforms

Hassan Adan, Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Jiro Honda and Manabu Nose

2023/230: A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries

Luc Eyraud, William Gbohoui and Paulo Medas

2023/229: A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and its Implications to COVID-19

Mariarosaria Comunale and Anh Nguyen

2023/228: Social Unrests and Fuel Prices: The Role of Macroeconomic, Social and Institutional Factors

Alassane Drabo, Kodjovi Eklou, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2023/227: Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania

Mantas Dirma and Jaunius Karmelavičius

2023/226: Inclusive GovTech: Enhancing Efficiency and Equity Through Public Service Digitalization

Manabu Nose

2023/225: Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade

Serhan Cevik

2023/224: Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation?

Luis Brandão-Marques, R. Gaston Gelos, David Hofman, Julia Otten, Gurnain Pasricha and Zoe Strauss

2023/223: Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey

Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, Giacomo Magistretti and Alexandre Sollaci

2023/222: Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco

Hippolyte Balima, Olivier Bizimana and Ananta Dua

2023/221: Value Added Tax in the Extractive Industries

Artur Swistak and Nate Vernon-Lin

2023/220: Corruption Kills: Global Evidence from Natural Disasters

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2023/219: Why Is Tunisia’s Unemployment So High? Evidence From Policy Factors

Aymen Belgacem and Jérôme Vacher

2023/218: A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India

Jean Chateau, Geetika Dang, Margaux MacDonald, John Spray and Sneha Thube

2023/217: Financial Stress and Economic Activity: Evidence from a New Worldwide Index

Hites Ahir, Giovanni Dell'ariccia, Davide Furceri, Chris Papageorgiou and Hanbo Qi

2023/216: Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications

Carlo Pizzinelli, Augustus Panton, Marina Tavares, Mauro Cazzaniga and Longji Li

2023/215: Monetary Policy Transmission through Commodity Prices

Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti and Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos

2023/214: Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets

Burcu Hacibedel and Hector Perez-Saiz

2023/213: New Evidence on Spillovers Between Crypto Assets and Financial Markets

Roshan Iyer and Adina Popescu

2023/212: Inflation Dynamics in Bulgaria: The Role of Policies

Anh Nguyen, Hajime Takizawa and Iglika Vassileva

2023/211: Monetary Policy and Labor Market Gender Gaps

Valentina Flamini, Diego Gomes, Bihong Huang, Lisa Kolovich, Aina Puig and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2023/210: Putting Out the NBFIRE: Lessons from the UK's Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) Crisis

Ruo Chen and Esti Kemp

2023/209: Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications

Giovanni Borraccia, Raphael Espinoza, Vincenzo Guzzo, Romain Lafarguette, Fuda Jiang, Vina Nguyen, Miguel Segoviano and Philippe Wingender

2023/208: Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts

Jonathan Adams and Philip Barrett

2023/207: Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan

Levan Gogoberishvili and Ömer Bayar

2023/206: China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence

Alexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Chris Redl

2023/205: Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications

Melih Firat and Otso Hao