IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/233: Agricultural Distortions and International Migration

Braulio Britos, Manuel Hernandez and Danilo Trupkin

2025/232: The Macroeconomic Impact of Earthquakes on Growth: A Tale from Two Datasets

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/231: The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation Expectations

Francisco Arizala, Santiago Bazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama and Shiqing Hua

2025/230: The ENV-FIBA Model for Climate Risk Analysis: Framework, Model Details and Guide

Marco Gross, Jinhyuk Yoo, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Salim Dehmej, Zulma Barrail and Hannah Sheldon

2025/229: The Labor Market Implications of Healthy Aging

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Helena Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Ozhan

2025/228: Credit Loss in Translation: Informing Bank Provisions and Capital Buffer Requirements with Forward-Looking Credit Loss Distributions

Marco Gross and Laurent Millischer

2025/227: Macroeconomic Effects and Spillovers from Bank of Japan Unconventional Monetary Policy

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Danila Smirnov

2025/226: Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans

Stephen Ayerst, Nina Chebotareva, Oksana Dynnikova, Amanda Edwards and Charles Zhang

2025/225: A Quantitative Approach to Central Bank Haircuts and Counterparty Risk Management

Yuji Sakurai

2025/224: From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate

Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa

2025/223: Maximum Sustainable Debt Across Countries: An Assessment using P-Theory

Yongquan Cao, Wei Jiang, Waikei Lam and Neng Wang

2025/222: Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis

Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang and Rafael Machado Parente

2025/221: Currency Crises in the Post-Bretton Woods Era: A New Dataset of Large Depreciations

Alexander Culiuc and Hyunmin Park

2025/220: Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity

Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska and Yuting Wei

2025/219: Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev and Manabu Nose

2025/218: Earthquakes and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar and Dao Le-Van

2025/217: Parameter Proliferation in Nowcasting: Issues and Approaches—An Application to Nowcasting China’s Real GDP

Paul Cashin, Fei Han, Ivy Sabuga, Jing Xie and Fan Zhang

2025/216: Emerging Market Cycles: Twin-Balance Sheet Conditions and Macro- Financial Linkages

Soumya Bhadury, Bhanu Pratap and Jay Surti

2025/215: Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius

Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili and Valeriu Nalban

2025/214: Shaping Services Trade: The Heterogeneous Effects of Withholding Taxes

Li Liu, Alexander Klemm and Parijat Lal

2025/213: The Israeli Structural Model

Daniel Baksa, Yotam Peterfreund, Nadav Podoler, Ivy Sabuga, Tanya Slobodnitsky and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/212: Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks

Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan

2025/211: Can Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies Improve the Delivery of Social Safety Nets?

Denis Nikitin, Johan Schmalholz and Carolina Bloch

2025/210: Inflation Determinants in Kazakhstan: A tale of (at least) two stories

Gregorio Impavido

2025/209: Closing the Gap: How Tax Administration Performance Shapes Compliance

Katherine Baer, Patricio Barra and Juan Carlos Benitez

2025/208: Commodity-driven Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Does Size Matter?

Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Maximiliano Jerez-Osses, Vida Maver, Jorge Miranda-Pinto and Jean-Marc Natal

2025/207: Monetary Policy and Housing Overvaluation

Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani and Rui Mano

2025/206: Credit where Credit is Due: Fiscal Consolidations, Sovereign Risk and Bank Credit

Antonio David, Samuel Pienknagura and Juan Yepez

2025/205: State Fragility: Towards a Conceptual Framework

Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk, Weining Xin and Harold Zavarce

2025/204: External Shocks and Monetary Policy Trade-offs in Low-Income Countries

Juan Passadore, Giovanni Sciacovelli, Filiz Unsal and Carlos van Hombeeck

2025/203: State Capacity, Institutions and Growth: Taxing for Takeoff—Revisiting the Tax Tipping Point

Matthieu Bellon and Ross Warwick

2025/202: Restructuring Sovereign Domestic Debt in Developing Countries

Eriko Togo, Hui Miao, Myrvin Anthony, Marie Kim, Joe Kogan and Shijia Luo

2025/201: The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on the Debt Distribution

Francesco Frangiamore, Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat and Pietro Pizzuto

2025/200: Recycling Risk: Synthetic Risk Transfers

Fabio Cortes, Gonzalo Fernandez Dionis, Yiran Li, Silvia Ramirez and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2025/199: AI Projects in Financial Supervisory Authorities

Parma Bains, Gabriela Conde, Rangachary Ravikumar and Ebru Iskender

2025/198: Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Revisions since the Pandemic

Virginia Alonso-Albarran, Clara Arroyo, Ozlem Aydin, Hamid Davoodi, Waikei Lam, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Gabriel Hegab, Anh Nguyen, Natalia Salazar, Galen Sher, Alexandra Solovyeva and Nino Tchelishvili

2025/197: Perceptions of Public Debt and Policy Expectations: Evidence from Cross Country Surveys

Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid

2025/196: How Do High Interest Rates Affect Banks: The Roles of Loan Losses and Macroprudential Policy

Romain Bouis, Sumaiyah Mirza and Erlend Nier

2025/195: Fiscal Rules, Robust Correction Mechanisms, and Sovereign Spreads

Julien Acalin, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2025/194: Euro Area Financial Fragmentation and Bond Market Stability

Benjamin Mosk and Nander de Vette

2025/192: Credit and Product Innovation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India

Siddharth George, Divya Kirti, Nils Olle Herman Lange, Maria Martinez Peria and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan

2025/191: Unbalanced Trade 2.0

Alejandro Cunat and Robert Zymek

2025/190: Informality and Shock Propagation in an Open Economy

Sandra Lizarazo and Brandon Tan

2025/189: Economic Impact of G20 Compact with Africa Initiative on Member Countries

Edward Gemayel, Asel Isakova and Vidhi Maheshwari

2025/188: Bottlenecks to Private Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Firm-Level Analysis

Razan Amine, Qianqian Zhang, Shushanik Hakobyan and Ankita Goel

2025/187: Tax Reform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye

Silvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald and Carolina Osorio-Buitron

2025/186: Blockchain Consensus Mechanisms: A Primer for Supervisors (2025 Update)

Parma Bains

2025/185: Optimal Policy for Financial Market Tokenization

Itai Agur and Alexander Copestake

2025/184: The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities

Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan and TengTeng Xu

2025/183: Did R&D Misallocation Contribute to Slower Growth?

Nils Lehr

2025/182: Macroeconomic Exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia

Mariz Abdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling and Dalia Kadissi

2025/181: Targeted Transparency: Sectoral Approach to Beneficial Ownership in Procurement and Real Estate

Ivana Rossi, Chady El Khoury, Indulekha Thomas, Luisa Malcherek and Mohammed Al Janahi

2025/180: Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico

Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama and Hugo Tuesta

2025/179: Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs of Domestic Debt Restructurings

Jean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi

2025/178: Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy

Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath and Arnaud Mehl

2025/177: Monetary Policy Transmission in Euroized Countries: Evidence from Emerging Europe

Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski, Mengxue Wang and Zeju Zhu

2025/176: Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges

Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk Muir, Pedro Rodriguez and Li Zeng

2025/175: Sri Lanka’s Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Lessons from Complex Processes

Peter Breuer, Sandesh Dhungana and Mike Li

2025/174: Gulf Cooperation Council Diversification: The Role of Foreign Investments and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Weining Xin

2025/173: Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Kazakhstan: Results With a Small Macro Model

Gregorio Impavido

2025/172: A Python Package to Assist Macroframework Forecasting: Concepts and Examples

Sakai Ando, Shuvam Das and Sultan Orazbayev

2025/171: Payment Frictions, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates

Marco Reuter, Itai Agur, Alexander Copestake, Maria Martinez Peria and Ken Teoh

2025/170: Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios

Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López and Sha Yu

2025/169: The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Sustainable Finance Instruments

Marina Conesa Martinez

2025/168: Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia

Natasha Che, Federico Diez, Anne Oeking and Weining Xin

2025/167: Impact of Cross-Border Migration on the Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation in Latin America and in the Caribbean Countries

Cassie Chen Xiang and Manuk Ghazanchyan

2025/166: Inside (the) Money Machine: Modeling Liquidity, Maturity and Credit Transformations

Shalva Mkhatrishvili

2025/165: Efficiency Aspects of the Value Added Tax

Ruud de Mooij, Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2025/164: Beyond Costs: The Dominant Role of Strategic Complementarities in Pricing

Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini, Dagoberto Quevedo and Marco Rojas

2025/163: Bilateral Trade in Services: Insights from A New Research Dataset

Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, Qiuyan Yin, Dennis Zhao and Robert Zymek

2025/162: Sign Restrictions with a New-Keynesian Macro Model: Results From a “Quasi-Agnostic” Identification Procedure

Gregorio Impavido

2025/161: Housing Booms and Productivity Growth

Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz and Lucy Qian Liu

2025/160: Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets

Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana and Shant Arzoumanian

2025/159: Making Cost Data Work for Public Financial Management

Lorena Rivero del Paso, Chloe Cho and Ramon Narvaez Terron

2025/158: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Consequences of Quantitative Easing

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Linde and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/157: Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean

Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kiliç Çelik and Masahiro Nishida

2025/156: Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo and A. Spence

2025/155: Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation

Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari and Yifan Tao

2025/154: Ramsey-Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan, Shu-Chun Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/153: Breaking Parity: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Currency Premia

Mai Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Oleg Itskhoki

2025/152: Monetary Policy Transmission to Lending Rates: Evidence from Brazil

Daniel Leigh and Rui Xu

2025/151: Sovereign Debt Auctions with Strategic Interactions

Ricardo Alves Monteiro and Stelios Fourakis

2025/150: Money Market Fund Growth During Hiking Cycles: A Global Analysis

Kleopatra Nikolaou

2025/149: Options for Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Framework

Rossen Rozenov, Waikei Lam, Yang Yang and Yinjie Yu

2025/148: Accounting and Fiscal Reporting in EU Countries

Sage De Clerck, Joseph Cavanagh and Mariano D'Amore

2025/147: Trade Partners’ Responses to US Tariffs

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2025/146: Financial Imbalances, Systemic Stress, and Macroprudential Implications

Knarik Ayvazyan and Etienne Yehoue

2025/145: Oil Shocks and Labor Market Developments

Diego Gomes, Lisa Kolovich and Hannah Yi Wei

2025/144: Building Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Persistent Temperature Changes: The Case of Peru

Zamid Aligishiev and Daria Kolpakova

2025/143: Industrial Policies and Firm Performance: A Nuanced Relationship

Rafael Machado Parente, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/142: The Impact of Debt and Deficits on Long-Term Interest Rates in the US

Davide Furceri, Carlos Goncalves and Hongchi Li

2025/141: Decrypting Crypto: How to Estimate International Stablecoin Flows

Marco Reuter

2025/140: Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition

Francesca Caselli and Allan Dizioli

2025/139: Navigating the Evolving Landscape of External Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa

Adrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire, Hamza Mighri, Can Sever and Luc Tucker

2025/138: Global Commodity Inflation Pass-through: Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States

Laron Alleyne and Patrick Blagrave

2025/137: Understanding Inflation Dynamics in Afghanistan

Karim Badr

2025/136: Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise?

Johannes Wiegand

2025/135: A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth

David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki and Christine Richmond

2025/134: Estimated Monthly National Accounts for the United States

Philip Barrett

2025/133: Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises

Camila Gutierrez, Javier Turen and Alejandro Vicondoa