IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2024/221: IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States

Kaihao Cai, Edouard Martin and Felix Vardy

2024/220: Inflation and Labor Markets: A Bottom-Up View

Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Do Lee and Prachi Mishra

2024/219: What Can Artificial Intelligence Do for Stagnant Productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Bas Bakker, Sophia Chen, Dmitry Vasilyev, Olga Bespalova, Moya Chin, Daria Kolpakova, Archit Singhal and Yuanchen Yang

2024/218: Europe’s Shift to EVs Amid Intensifying Global Competition

Philippe Wingender, Jiaxiong Yao, Robert Zymek, Benjamin Carton, Diego Cerdeiro and Anke Weber

2024/217: Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market

Silvia Albrizio, Hippolyte Balima, Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang and Colombe Ladreit

2024/216: Private Participation and its Discontents: Insights from Large-Scale Surveys

Silvia Albrizio, Hippolyte Balima, Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang and Colombe Ladreit

2024/215: Beyond Energy: Inflationary Effects of Metals Price Shocks in Production Networks

Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer and Xueliang Wang

2024/214: Global Shocks Unfolding: Lessons from Fragile and Conflict-affected States

Jocelyn Boussard, Chiara Castrovillari, Tomohide Mineyama, Marta Spinella, Bilal Tabti and Maxwell Tuuli

2024/213: The Economics of Decarbonizing Electricity Production

Gregor Schwerhoff

2024/212: Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index

Serhan Cevik and Tales Padilha

2024/211: Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications

Francesca Caselli, Huidan Lin, Frederik Toscani and Jiaxiong Yao

2024/210: An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

Gustavo Adler, Cian Allen, Giovanni Ganelli and Daniel Leigh

2024/209: The Economic Impact of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a New Cross-Country Database

Gee Hee Hong, Shikun (Barry) Ke and Anh Nguyen

2024/208: Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers

Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

2024/207: Committing to Grow: The Full Impact of WTO Accessions

André Brotto, Adam Jakubik, Roberta Piermartini and Fulvio Silvy

2024/206: Mending the Crystal Ball: Enhanced Inflation Forecasts with Machine Learning

Yang Liu, Ran Pan and Rui Xu

2024/205: Chinese Banks and Their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation?

Catherine Casanova, Eugenio Cerutti and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan

2024/204: Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment

Andinet Woldemichael and Iyke Maduako

2024/203: Systemic Implications of Financial Inclusion

Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Farah Mugrabi

2024/202: Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data

Ha Nguyen and Samuel Pienknagura

2024/201: Navigating Minefields and Headwinds: National Security, Demographic Shifts, Climate Change and Fiscal Policy in Lithuania

Serhan Cevik

2024/200: Fiscal Risk Sharing in China: Is It Significant and How to Further Improve It?

Fei Han, Grace Li Bin and Chenqi Zhou

2024/199: The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions

Yueling Huang

2024/198: Climate Policy Diffusion Across US States

Mitali Das, Manuel Linsenmeier and Gregor Schwerhoff

2024/197: Beyond the Dikes: Flood Scenarios for Financial Stability Risk Analysis

Caterina Lepore and Junghwan Mok

2024/196: A Gravity Model of Geopolitics and Financial Fragmentation

Mario Catalan, Salih Fendoglu and Tomohiro Tsuruga

2024/195: Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs

Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo

2024/194: Fiscal Discourse and Fiscal Policy

Yongquan Cao, Era Dabla-Norris and Enrico Di Gregorio

2024/193: Banking Law and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues

Mario Tamez, Ender Emre and Alessandro Gullo

2024/192: Central Banks and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues

Mario Tamez, Hans Weenink and Akihiro Yoshinaga

2024/191: Managing Remittances Inflows with Foreign Exchange Intervention

Maria-Angels Oliva and Nika Khinashvili

2024/190: Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data

Omer Faruk Akbal

2024/189: Geopolitical Proximity and the Use of Global Currencies

Jakree Koosakul, Longmei Zhang and Maryam Zia

2024/188: How do Economic Growth and Food Inflation Affect Food Insecurity?

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti

2024/187: Overview of the New Calibrated DSGE Model of the Economy of North Macedonia

Tibor Hlédik, Joana Madjoska, Mite Miteski and Jan Vlcek

2024/186: Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates

Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen and Ha Nguyen

2024/185: Changing Climate in Brazil: Key Vulnerabilities and Opportunities

Chen Chen, Koralai Kirabaeva, Christina Kolerus, Ian Parry and Nate Vernon-Lin

2024/184: Investing in Climate Adaptation under Trade and Financing Constraints: Balanced Strategies for Food Security

Chen Chen, Koralai Kirabaeva and Danchen Zhao

2024/183: Advancing Labor Market Reforms in Korea

Stella Tam and Xin Xu

2024/182: Financial and Business Cycles: Shall We Dance?: An Application to Kazakhstan

Gregorio Impavido

2024/181: Taming Public Debt in Europe: Outlook, Challenges, and Policy Response

Saioa Armendariz, Ezequiel Cabezon, Larry Cui, Silvia Domit, Alina Iancu, Giacomo Magistretti, Rohan Srinivas and Yu Ching Wong

2024/180: Trade Implications of China's Subsidies

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2024/179: How Widespread is FDI Fragmentation?

Joanne Tan

2024/178: Shedding Light on the Local Impact of Temperature

Da Hoang, Duong Trung Le, Ha Nguyen and Nikola Spatafora

2024/177: Programmability in Payment and Settlement

Xavier Lavayssière and Nicolas Zhang

2024/176: Industrial Policies for Innovation: A Cost-Benefit Framework

Daniel Garcia-Macia and Alexandre Sollaci

2024/175: The Joint Effect of Emigration and Remittances on Economic Growth and Labor Force Participation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Alina Carare, Alejandro Fiorito Baratas, Jessie Kilembe, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Wenzhang Zhang

2024/174: Fiscal R-Star: Fiscal-Monetary Tensions and Implications for Policy

Marijn Bolhuis, Jakree Koosakul and Neil Shenai

2024/173: The Role of IMF Arrangements in Restoring Access to International Capital Markets

Joseph Kogan, Romina Kazandjian, Shijia Luo, Moustapha Mbohou and Hui Miao

2024/172: Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019

Nauro Campos, Corrado Macchiarelli and Fotios Mitropoulos

2024/171: Labor Market Gender Gaps in Türkiye: A Bird’s Eye View

Silvia Domit and Damla Kesimal

2024/170: ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience

Philipp Engler, Gianluigi Ferrucci, Pawel Zabczyk and Tianxiao Zheng

2024/169: Productive Capacities, Economic Vulnerability and Growth Volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Aminou Yaya

2024/168: Whose Asset Sales Matter?

Rhys Bidder, Jamie Coen, Caterina Lepore and Laura Silvetri

2024/167: Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries

Thordur Jonasson, Sheheryar Malik, Kay Chung and Michael Papaioannou

2024/166: Enhancing IMF Economics Training: AI-Powered Analysis of Qualitative Learner Feedback

András Komáromi, Xiaomin Wu, Ran Pan, Yang Liu, Pablo Cisneros, Anchal Manocha and Hiba El Oirghi

2024/165: Public Perceptions of Canada’s Investment Climate

Flora Lutz, Yuanchen Yang and Chengyu Huang

2024/164: Capital Controls on Outflows: New Evidence and a Theoretical Framework

Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández and Humberto Martinez

2024/163: Can Mobile Technologies Enhance Productivity? A Structural Model and Evidence from Benin Food Suppliers

Pierre Nguimkeu and Cedric Okou

2024/162: Climate Policies and External Adjustment

Rudolfs Bems, Luciana Juvenal, Weifeng Liu and Warwick McKibbin

2024/161: The Mirage of Falling R-stars

Ales Bulir and Jan Vlcek

2024/160: Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Brexit

Jagjit Chadha, Corrado Macchiarelli, Satyam Goel, Arno Hantzsche and Sathya Mellina

2024/159: Minimum Wages, Inequality, and the Informal Sector

Rafael Machado Parente

2024/158: The Global Financial Cycle: Quantities versus Prices

Eugenio Cerutti and Stijn Claessens

2024/157: Gender Diversity and Corporate Resilience to Climate Change: Evidence from Greenfield Investments

Ming Yan William Cheung and Bihong Huang

2024/156: The Green Future: Labor Market Implications for Men and Women

Naomi-Rose Alexander, Longji Li, Jorge Mondragon, Sahar Priano and Marina Tavares

2024/155: Policy Options for Climate Mitigation: Emissions Trading Schemes in Asia-Pacific

Margaux MacDonald and Ian Parry

2024/154: From Adoption to Innovation: State-Dependent Technology Policy in Developing Countries

Jaedo Choi and Younghun Shim

2024/153: Greenflation or Greensulation? The Case of Fuel Excise Taxes and Oil Price Pass-through

JaeBin Ahn

2024/152: Knowledge Diffusion Through FDI: Worldwide Firm-Level Evidence

JaeBin Ahn, Chan Kim, Nan Li and Andrea Manera

2024/151: A Suggested Medium-Term Fiscal Framework for Guyana

Rina Bhattacharya and Do Yeon Park

2024/150: Understanding Barriers to Financial Access: Insights from Bank Pricing Data

Kazuko Shirono, Berhe Beyene, Fozan Fareed, Christiaan Loots, Andrea Quevedo and Kameshnee Naidoo

2024/149: Distributional Impacts of Heterogenous Carbon Prices in the EU

Magnus Merkle and Geoffroy Dolphin

2024/148: A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

Francisco Dakila Jr., Dennis Bautista, Jasmin Dacio, Rosemarie Amodia, Sarah Jane Castañares, Paul Reimon Alhambra, Jan Christopher Ocampo, Charles John Marquez, Mark Rex Romaraog, Philippe Karam, Daniel Baksa and Jan Vlcek

2024/147: Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy

Dyna Heng, Fei Han, Sovanney Chey, Raksmey Uch, Dy Kuchsa and Pholla Phork

2024/146: Stepping Up Venture Capital to Finance Innovation in Europe

Nathaniel Arnold, Guillaume Claveres and Jan Frie

2024/145: Balancing Environmental, Fiscal, and Welfare Impacts of Transportation Decarbonization in France

Nate Vernon-Lin

2024/144: Climate Transition Risk and Financial Stability in France

Rachel Lee, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2024/143: Bank Profits and Bank Taxes in the EU

Morgan Maneely and Lev Ratnovski

2024/142: Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay

Ruo Chen, Vincenzo Guzzo, Fazurin Jamaludin, Adil Mohommad, Ritong Qu and Yueshu Zhao

2024/141: A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones

Michele Fornino, Mahmut Kutlukaya, Caterina Lepore and Javier Uruñuela López

2024/140: A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg

Carlos de Resende, Alexandra Solovyeva and Moez Souissi

2024/139: The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade

Ibrahim Nana, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Sampawende Tapsoba

2024/138: Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier

Cristian Alonso and Margaux MacDonald

2024/137: Beyond Debt: Net Worth Fiscal Anchors

Hua Chai, Jason Harris and Alexander Tieman

2024/136: Unraveling the Wage-Output Disconnect: The Role of Labor Market Power

Melih Firat and Can Sever

2024/135: Firms’ Response to Climate Regulations-Empirical Investigations Based on the European Emissions Trading System

Fotios Kalantzis, Salma Khalid, Alexandra Solovyeva and Marcin Wolski

2024/134: The Catalytic Impact of IMF Lending on Official Development Assistance

Bangyu He, Phil Johnston and Agustin Velasquez

2024/133: Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight

Clemens Graf von Luckner, Robin Koepke and Silvia Sgherri

2024/132: The Diagnostic Financial Accelerator

Lahcen Bounader and Selim Elekdag

2024/131: Promise (Un)kept? Fintech and Financial Inclusion

Serhan Cevik

2024/130: Germany’s Foreign Direct Investment in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation

Kevin Fletcher, Veronika Grimm, Thilo Kroeger, Aiko Mineshima, Christian Ochsner, Andrea Presbitero, Paul Schmidt-Engelbertz and Jing Zhou

2024/129: Has the Transmission of US Monetary Policy Changed Since 2022?

Philip Barrett and Josef Platzer

2024/128: Drivers of Post-COVID Private Consumption in the U.S

Mai Dao, La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Jing Zhou

2024/127: Escaping the Financial Dollarization Trap: The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Paul Castillo, Ruy Lama and Juan Medina

2024/126: A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo

Victor Musa, Bertrand Gilles Umba, Lewis Mambo, Jonas Kibala, Christian Kandolo, Josephine Mushiya, Yannick Luvezo, Jules Nsunda, Grégoire Lumbala, Yves Siasi, Serge Mfumukanda, Lubaki Ange, Kabata Olivier, Luc Shindano, Dyna Heng, Diego Rodriguez Guzman and Barna Szabo

2024/125: Green Fiscal Rules? Challenges and Policy Alternatives

Francesca Caselli, Andresa Lagerborg and Paulo Medas

2024/124: Post-pandemic Productivity Dynamics in the United States

Mai Dao and Josef Platzer

2024/123: A Conceptual Policy Framework for Leveraging Digitalization to Support Diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mame Astou Diouf, Leonardo Pio Perez, Felix Simione, Arina Viseth and Jiaxiong Yao

2024/122: The Price of De-Risking Reshoring, Friend-Shoring, and Quality Downgrading

Diego Cerdeiro, Parisa Kamali, Siddharth Kothari and Dirk Muir