IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2022/184: Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Machine Learning Approach

Anil Ari, Gabor Pula and Liyang Sun

2022/183: OPEC and the Oil Market

Andrea Pescatori and Yousef Nazer

2022/182: Sustainable Finance in Emerging Markets: Evolution, Challenges, and Policy Priorities

Rohit Goel, Deepali Gautam and Fabio Natalucci

2022/181: Determinants of Inflation in Iran and Policies to Curb It

H. Elif Ture and Ali Reza Khazaei

2022/180: Closing Peru's Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth

Carlos Chavez, Gonzalo Salinas and Yuri Zamora

2022/179: Waiting for Godot? The Case for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Small Island States

Serhan Cevik

2022/178: Dirty Dance: Tourism and Environment

Serhan Cevik

2022/177: Home or Away? Profit Shifting with Territorial Taxation

Dominika Langenmayr and Li Liu

2022/176: Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Boileau Loko, Nelie Nembot and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2022/175: The Fear Economy: A Theory of Output, Interest, and Safe Assets

Ruchir Agarwal

2022/174: Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma or Opportunity of the Century?

Serhan Cevik

2022/173: Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook

Chikako Baba and Jaewoo Lee

2022/172: What Matters for Job Finding and Separation in the Long Run? Evidence from Labor Market Dynamics in New Zealand

Guanyu Zheng, Gulnara Nolan, Christopher Ball, Siddharth Kothari and Yosuke Kido

2022/171: The Systemic Impact of Debt Default in a Multilayered Global Network Model

Nathan Porter, Camilo Tovar, Juan Trevino, Johannes Eugster and Theofanis Papamichalis

2022/170: Effective Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in Severe Recessions

Jiaqian Chen, Raphael Espinoza, Carlos Goncalves, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Martina Hengge, Zoltán Jakab and Jesper Lindé

2022/169: Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana

Philip Abradu-Otoo, Ivy Acquaye, Abubakar Addy, Nana Kwame Akosah, James Attuquaye, Simon Harvey, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Zakari Mumuni and Valeriu Nalban

2022/168: Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Maximilien Queyranne, Romain Lafarguette and Kubi Johnson

2022/167: Breaking Bad: A Disaggregated Analysis of Inflation Inertia

Serhan Cevik

2022/166: Mind the Gap: City-Level Inflation Synchronization

Serhan Cevik

2022/165: India’s State-Owned Enterprises

Ruchir Agarwal, Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Lesley Fisher and Xuehui Han

2022/164: The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis

Jean-Marc Fournier, Takuma Hisanaga and Anh Nguyen

2022/163: Bank Stress Testing of Physical Risks under Climate Change Macro Scenarios: Typhoon Risks to the Philippines

Stephane Hallegatte, Fabian Lipinsky, Paola Morales, Hiroko Oura, Nicola Ranger, Martijn Gert Jan Regelink and Henk Jan Reinders

2022/162: Debt-for-Climate Swaps: Analysis, Design, and Implementation

Marcos Chamon, Erik Klok, Vimal Thakoor and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2022/161: Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain

Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli and Emiliano Luttini

2022/160: Is Education Neglected in Natural Resources-Rich Countries? An Intergenerational Approach in Africa

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Regina Séri

2022/159: Economic Growth After Debt Surges

Joao Jalles and Paulo Medas

2022/158: Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention

Andrew Filardo, R. Gaston Gelos and Thomas McGregor

2022/157: Do IMF Programs Stimulate Private Sector Investment?

Pietro Bomprezzi, Silvia Marchesi and Rima Turk Ariss

2022/156: Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations

Berkay Akyapi, Matthieu Bellon and Emanuele Massetti

2022/155: Legal Gender Equality as a Catalyst for Convergence

Can Sever

2022/154: Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Selim Cakir, Maria Atamanchuk, Mazin Al Riyami, Nia Sharashidze and Nathalie Reyes

2022/153: Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach

Burcu Hacibedel and Ritong Qu

2022/152: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

Anil Ari, Nicolas Arregui, Simon Black, Oya Celasun, Dora Iakova, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian Parry, Iulia Teodoru and Karlygash Zhunussova

2022/151: Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning

Yang Liu, Di Yang and Yunhui Zhao

2022/150: Distributional Effects of Tax Reforms in Japan: Micro-simulation Approach

Takuma Hisanaga

2022/149: Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics

Tidiane Kinda, Andras Lengyel and Kaustubh Chahande

2022/148: Unorthodox Expenditure Procedures in CEMAC and WAEMU Countries

Bruno Imbert, Hoda Selim, Gwenaelle Suc and Qing Zhao

2022/147: Sudden Stops and Optimal Policy in a Two-agent Economy

Nina Biljanovska and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2022/146: Transitioning to a Greener Labor Market: Cross-Country Evidence from Microdata

John Bluedorn, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Diaa Noureldin, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/145: Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply

C. Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer and Frederik Toscani

2022/144: The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff

Ting Lan, Galen Sher and Jing Zhou

2022/143: Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union

Silvia Albrizio, John Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2022/142: A Comprehensive Package of Macroeconomic Policy Measures for Implementing China’s Climate Mitigation Strategy

Jean Chateau, Wenjie Chen, Florence Jaumotte and Karlygash Zhunussova

2022/141: Macroprudential Regulation and Sector-Specific Default Risk

Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Jean-Charles Wijnandts

2022/140: Women in Fintech: As Leaders and Users

Purva Khera, Sumiko Ogawa, Ratna Sahay and Mahima Vasishth

2022/139: Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes

Xuequan Elsie Peng and Chima Simpson-Bell

2022/138: Inequality and the Structure of Countries’ External Liabilities

Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann, Miriam Kohl and Tobias Krahnke

2022/137: Financial Sector and Economic Growth in India

Margaux MacDonald and TengTeng Xu

2022/136: An Alternative Proof of Minimum Trace Reconciliation

Sakai Ando and Futoshi Narita

2022/135: Staple Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Assessment

Cedric Okou, John Spray and Filiz Unsal

2022/134: Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Tigran Poghosyan

2022/133: Contagion as a Dealmaker? The Effect of Financial Spillovers on Regional Lending Programs

Alexandra Fotiou, Alica Bonk and Georgios Manalis

2022/132: The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations

Yoosoon Chang, Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez and Gee Hee Hong

2022/131: Agglomeration, Innovation, and Spatial Reallocation: The Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits

Alexandre Sollaci

2022/130: Output Losses in Europe During COVID-19: What Role for Policies?

Anil Ari, Jean-Marc Atsebi and Mar Domenech Palacios

2022/129: From Polluting to Green Jobs: A Seamless Transition in the U.S.?

Katharina Bergant, Rui Mano and Ippei Shibata

2022/128: Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power

Anastasia Burya, Rui Mano, Yannick Timmer and Anke Weber

2022/127: Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits

Matteo Ghilardi and Roy Zilberman

2022/126: Fiscal Consolidation and Firm Level Productivity: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Maxwell Tuuli and Ngo Long

2022/125: Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation

Natan Epstein, Lucyna Gornicka, Nga Ha, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

2022/124: The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation: Evidence from Europe

John Bluedorn, Francesca Caselli, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/123: Policy Space Index: Short-Term Response to a Catastrophic Event

José Ferrer and Alexei Kireyev

2022/122: Sovereign Debt

Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch, Francisco Roldán and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2022/121: Income Convergence or Divergence in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Shock?

Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu and Chris Papageorgiou

2022/120: International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

Shekhar Aiyar, Davide Malacrino, Adil Mohommad and Andrea Presbitero

2022/119: Pictures of a Revolution: Analyzing the Transition from Global Bimetallism to the Gold Standard in the 1860s and 1870s

Johannes Wiegand

2022/118: The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model: A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia

Victoria Babajanyan, Daniel Baksa, Martin Fukac, Eduard Hakobyan, Arshaluys Harutyunyan, Narek Karapetyan, Babken Pashinyan, Garik Petrosyan and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2022/117: A New Claims-Based Unemployment Dataset: Application to Postwar Recoveries Across U.S. States

Andrew Fieldhouse, Sean Howard, Christoffer Koch and David Munro

2022/116: The Distributional Impact of a Carbon Tax in Asia and the Pacific

Cristian Alonso and Joey Kilpatrick

2022/115: The International Diffusion of Policies for Climate Change Mitigation

Manuel Linsenmeier, Adil Mohommad and Gregor Schwerhoff

2022/114: Tracking Economic and Financial Policies During COVID-19: An Announcement-Level Database

Divya Kirti, Yang Liu, Soledad Martinez Peria, Prachi Mishra and Jan Strasky

2022/113: Quantitative Easing and Credit Rating Agencies

Nordine Abidi, Matteo Falagiarda and Ixart Miquel-Flores

2022/112: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model

Marcin Kolasa, Sahil Ravgotra and Pawel Zabczyk

2022/111: Fiscal Decentralization Improves Social Outcomes When Countries Have Good Governance

Ryota Nakatani, Qianqian Zhang and Isaura Garcia Valdes

2022/110: Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting: High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities

Sakai Ando and Taehoon Kim

2022/109: Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

Robert Beyer, Yingyao Hu and Jiaxiong Yao

2022/108: Fintech, Female Employment, and Gender Inequality

Boileau Loko and Yuanchen Yang

2022/107: The Great Carbon Arbitrage

Tobias Adrian, Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis

2022/106: The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel or Vulnerability Amplifier?

Alberto Behar and Ramin Hassan

2022/105: Voting Right Rotation, Behavior of Committee Members and Financial Market Reactions: Evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Michael Ehrmann, Robin Tietz and Bauke Visser

2022/104: Macroeconomic Effects of Market Structure Distortions: Evidence from French Cartels

Flavien Moreau and Ludovic Panon

2022/103: For Whom the Bell Tolls: Climate Change and Inequality

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2022/102: Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2022/101: Jobs Impact of Green Energy

Jaden Kim and Adil Mohommad

2022/100: Strengthening Public Expenditure Efficiency: Investment and Social Spending in Bulgaria

Jean-Jacques Hallaert and Keyra Primus

2022/099: Finance Vaccine Equity: Funding for Day-Zero of the Next Pandemic

Ruchir Agarwal and Tristan Reed

2022/098: Sovereign Eurobond Liquidity and Yields

Daniel Hardy

2022/097: Seven Finance & Trade Lessons from COVID-19 for Future Pandemics

Ruchir Agarwal and Gita Gopinath

2022/096: Do Monetary Policy Outcomes Promote Stability in Fragile Settings?

Oumar Diallo, Steve Gui-Diby and Patrick Imam

2022/095: Road Quality and Mean Speed Score

Marian Moszoro and Mauricio Soto

2022/094: Assessing Vulnerabilities to Corruption in Public Procurement and Their Price Impact

Aly Abdou, Olivier Basdevant, Elizabeth David-Barrett and Mihaly Fazekas

2022/093: Weather Shocks and Exchange Rate Flexibility

Selim Elekdag and Maxwell Tuuli

2022/092: Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Aleksandra Babii, Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev and Yorbol Yakhshilikov

2022/091: Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies: A Decomposition into Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Factors

Weicheng Lian and Andreas Freitag

2022/090: Bilateral Trade Imbalances

Alejandro Cunat and Robert Zymek

2022/089: The Japanese Labor Market During the COVID- 19 Pandemic

Shinya Kotera and Jochen M. Schmittmann

2022/088: Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Karim Barhoumi, Seung Mo Choi, Tara Iyer, Jiakun Li, Franck Ouattara, Andrew Tiffin and Jiaxiong Yao

2022/087: Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers

Sascha Buetzer

2022/086: Measuring Carbon Emissions of Foreign Direct Investment in Host Economies

Maria Borga, Achille Pegoue, Gregory Legoff, Alberto Sanchez Rodelgo, Dmitrii Entaltsev and Kenneth Egesa

2022/085: Digital Money and Central Bank Operations

Charles Kahn, Manmohan Singh and Jihad Alwazir