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Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation

Natan Epstein, Lucyna Gornicka, Nga Ha, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

No 2022/125, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.

Keywords: Vietnam; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; sample forecasting accuracy; impulse response; projection model; monetary policy implementation; forward-looking monetary policy regime; Inflation; Nominal effective exchange rate; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Real exchange rates; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2022-06-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mon and nep-sea
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