IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2020/007: How Do Member Countries Receive IMF Policy Advice: Results from a State-of-the-art Sentiment Index

Ghada Fayad, Chengyu Huang, Yoko Shibuya and Peng Zhao

2020/006: How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries

Chikako Baba, Salvatore Dell'Erba, Enrica Detragiache, Olamide Harrison, Aiko Mineshima, Anvar Musayev and Asghar Shahmoradi

2020/005: The (Subjective) Well-Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks

Kodjovi Eklou and Fall Mamour

2020/004: Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve

Ales Bulir and Jan Vlcek

2020/003: Natural Disaster Insurance for Sovereigns: Issues, Challenges and Optimality

Aliona Cebotari and Karim Youssef

2020/002: Crime and Output: Theory and Application to the Northern Triangle of Central America

Dmitry Plotnikov

2020/001: Debt Is Not Free

Marialuz Moreno Badia, Paulo Medas, Pranav Gupta and Yuan Xiang

2019/304: U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?

Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Erik Roos, Sohaib Shahid and Ling Zhu

2019/303: Risk Management Maturity Assessment at Central Banks

Nicolas Denewet, Antonio Manzanera, Sanjeev Matai and Elie Chamoun

2019/302: Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare

Parisa Kamali

2019/301: Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

Sabine Klinger, Anvar Musayev, Jean-Marc Natal and Enzo Weber

2019/300: Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?

Gustavo Adler, Sergii Meleshchuk and Carolina Osorio-Buitron

2019/299: Cross-Border Currency Exposures

Agustín Bénétrix, Deepali Gautam, Luciana Juvenal and Martin Schmitz

2019/298: Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

Chuling Chen, Era Dabla-Norris, Jay Rappaport and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2019/297: Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in Advanced Economies

Ichiro Fukunaga, Takuji Komatsuzaki and Hideaki Matsuoka

2019/296: Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality: The Case of the Eurosystem

Romain Veyrune and Shaoyu Guo

2019/295: Post-Crisis Changes in Global Bank Business Models: A New Taxonomy

John Caparusso, Yingyuan Chen, Peter Dattels, Rohit Goel and Paul Hiebert

2019/294: Innovate to Lead or Innovate to Prevail: When do Monopolistic Rents Induce Growth?

Roberto Piazza and Yu Zheng

2019/293: The Role of Board Oversight in Central Bank Governance: Key Legal Design Issues

Wouter Bossu and Arthur D. P. Rossi

2019/292: Completing the Market: Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning

Nan Hu, Jian Li and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2019/291: Do Fiscal Rules Cause Fiscal Discipline Over the Electoral Cycle?

Kodjovi Eklou and Marcelin Joanis

2019/290: Sovereign Asset and Liability Management in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Uruguay

André Amante, Phillip Anderson, Thordur Jonasson, Herman Kamil and Michael Papaioannou

2019/289: Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration

Alejandro Izquierdo, Ruy Lama, Juan Medina, Jorge Puig, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Carlos Végh Gramont and Guillermo Vuletin

2019/288: Automation, Skills and the Future of Work: What do Workers Think?

Carlos Mulas-Granados, Richard Varghese, Vizhdan Boranova, Alice deChalendar and Judith Wallenstein

2019/287: The Impact of Profit Shifting on Economic Activity and Tax Competition

Alexander Klemm and Li Liu

2019/286: Hidden Treasure: The Impact of Automatic Exchange of Information on Cross-Border Tax Evasion

Sebastian Beer, Maria Coelho and Sebastien Leduc

2019/285: Money Creation in Fiat and Digital Currency Systems

Marco Gross and Christoph Siebenbrunner

2019/284: Liquidity Choice and Misallocation of Credit

Ehsan Ebrahimy

2019/283: Disposal is Not Free: Fiscal Instruments to Internalize the Environmental Costs of Solid Waste

Thornton Matheson

2019/282: Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach

Ippei Shibata

2019/281: A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal

Alex Pienkowski

2019/280: Wage Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Puzzle?

Vizhdan Boranova, Raju Huidrom, Sylwia Nowak, Petia Topalova, Volodymyr Tulin and Richard Varghese

2019/279: Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

R. Gaston Gelos, Lucyna Gornicka, Robin Koepke, Ratna Sahay and Silvia Sgherri

2019/278: Explaining the Shadow Economy in Europe: Size, Causes and Policy Options

Ben Kelmanson, Koralai Kirabaeva, Leandro Medina, Borislava Mircheva and Jason Weiss

2019/277: Exchange Rate Volatility and Pass-Through to Inflation in South Africa

Ken Miyajima

2019/276: What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?

Sónia Félix and Chiara Maggi

2019/275: Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Serkan Arslanalp, Marco Marini and Patrizia Tumbarello

2019/274: What Is Real and What Is Not in the Global FDI Network?

Jannick Damgaard, Thomas Elkjaer and Niels Johannesen

2019/273: News-based Sentiment Indicators

Chengyu Huang, Sean Simpson, Daria Ulybina and Agustin Roitman

2019/272: The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database

Anil Ari, Sophia Chen and Lev Ratnovski

2019/271: Is Digitalization Driving Domestic Inflation?

Balázs Csontó, Yuxuan Huang and Camilo Tovar

2019/270: The Spending Challenge for Reaching the SDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons Learned from Benin and Rwanda

Delphine Prady and Mouhamadou Sy

2019/269: Deepening the EU’s Single Market for Services

Christian Ebeke, Jan-Martin Frie and Louise Rabier

2019/268: How Do Changing U.S. Interest Rates Affect Banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries?

Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Yacoub Alatrash and Divya Kirti

2019/267: Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth

Julian Chow

2019/266: Sovereign Risk in Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing

Andreas Jobst and Hiroko Oura

2019/265: Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity

Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Ralph Chami and Anis Semet

2019/264: Network Determinants of Cross-Border Merger and Acquisition Decisions

Tatiana Didier, Sebastian Herrador and Magali Pinat

2019/263: China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach

Min Zhu, Longmei Zhang and Daoju Peng

2019/262: Recent Shifts in Capital Flow Patterns in Korea: An Investor Base Perspective

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Signe Krogstrup

2019/261: Guilt, Gender, and Work-Life Balance in Japan: A Choice Experiment

Chie Aoyagi and Alistair Munro

2019/260: Productivity and Tax Evasion

Era Dabla-Norris, Mark Gradstein, Fedor Miryugin and Florian Misch

2019/259: Quality Upgrading and Export Performance in the Asian Growth Miracle

Chris Papageorgiou, Fidel Perez-Sebastian and Nikola Spatafora

2019/258: Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China

Fei Han, Emilia Jurzyk, Wei Guo, Yun He and Nadia Rendak

2019/257: Informality and Aggregate Productivity: The Case of Mexico

Jorge Alvarez and Cian Ruane

2019/256: The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World: A GVAR Model Approach

Jose P Mauricio Vargas and Daniela Hess

2019/255: Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy

Moez Ben Hassine and Nooman Rebei

2019/254: Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability

Selim Elekdag, Sheheryar Malik and Srobona Mitra

2019/253: Governance and State-Owned Enterprises: How Costly is Corruption?

Anja Baum, Clay Hackney, Paulo Medas and Mouhamadou Sy

2019/252: Designing Central Bank Digital Currencies

Itai Agur, Anil Ari and Giovanni Dell'ariccia

2019/251: Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?

Eugenio Cerutti, Shan Chen, Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Swarnali Hannan and Adil Mohommad

2019/250: Integrating Solvency and Liquidity Stress Tests: The Use of Markov Regime-Switching Models

Fei Han and Mindaugas Leika

2019/249: Bridging the Mobile Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costing under Demographic Change and Urbanization

C. Emre Alper and Michal Miktus

2019/248: Assessing House Prices in Canada

Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil

2019/247: Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU

Takuji Komatsuzaki and Steve Brito

2019/246: Macrofinancial Linkages and Growth at Risk in the Dominican Republic

Olga Bespalova and Marina Rousset

2019/245: Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting

Martin Iseringhausen, Mwanza Nkusu and Wellian Wiranto

2019/244: The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus

Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj and Swarnali Hannan

2019/243: Structural Unemployment in Luxembourg: Bad Luck or Rational Choice?

William Gbohoui

2019/242: Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Serhan Cevik

2019/241: A Quantitative Analysis of Female Employment in Senegal

Vivian Malta, Angelica Martinez and Marina Tavares

2019/240: Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies

Thomas McGregor

2019/239: Firm-Level Data and Monetary Policy: The Case of a Middle Income Country

Lahcen Bounader and Mohamed Doukali

2019/238: Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy

Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang

2019/237: Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession

Szilard Benk and Max Gillman

2019/236: Doing More with Less: How Can Brazil Foster Development While Pursuing Fiscal Consolidation?

Valentina Flamini and Mauricio Soto

2019/235: German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?

Anne-Charlotte Paret and Anke Weber

2019/234: International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Silvia Albrizio, Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri and Chansik Yoon

2019/233: Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy

Germán Gutiérrez, Callum Jones and Thomas Philippon

2019/232: On the Substitution of Private and Public Capital in Production

Zidong An, Alvar Kangur and Chris Papageorgiou

2019/231: Digitalization to Improve Tax Compliance: Evidence from VAT e-Invoicing in Peru

Matthieu Bellon, Jillie Chang, Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, Frederico Lima, Enrique Rojas and Pilar Villena

2019/230: In Search of Lost Time: Examining the Duration of Sudden Stops in Capital Flows

Antonio David and Carlos Goncalves

2019/229: Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target

Gee Hee Hong, Rahul Anand and Yaroslav Hul

2019/228: Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth

Andrew Tiffin

2019/227: Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-end Mutual Funds

Dunhong Jin, Marcin Kacperczyk, Bige Kahraman and Felix Suntheim

2019/226: Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt

Nicolas End, Marina Marinkov and Fedor Miryugin

2019/225: Reducing and Redistributing Unpaid Work: Stronger Policies to Support Gender Equality

Cristian Alonso, Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris, Yuko Kinoshita and Kalpana Kochhar

2019/224: Banks’ Holdings of Government Securities and Credit to the Private Sector in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Romain Bouis

2019/223: Do Audits Deter or Provoke Future Tax Noncompliance? Evidence on Self-employed Taxpayers

Sebastian Beer, Matthias Kasper, Erich Kirchler and Brian Erard

2019/222: The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Morocco

Babacar Sarr, Mokhtar Benlamine and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2019/221: Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Majdi Debbich

2019/220: Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework

Jana Bricco ('Gieck') and TengTeng Xu

2019/219: A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk

2019/218: Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance?

Kady Keita, Gene Leon and Frederico Lima

2019/217: Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries

Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina and Chris Papageorgiou

2019/216: Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli and Jay Rappaport

2019/215: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Matthew Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan Ng, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Jui-Chung Yang

2019/214: Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Samya Beidas-Strom and Marco Lorusso

2019/213: An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment

Ruud de Mooij, Li Liu and Dinar Prihardini

2019/212: Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet

Yugo Koshima