IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2019/248: Assessing House Prices in Canada

Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil

2019/247: Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU

Takuji Komatsuzaki and Steve Brito

2019/246: Macrofinancial Linkages and Growth at Risk in the Dominican Republic

Olga Bespalova and Marina Rousset

2019/245: Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting

Martin Iseringhausen, Mwanza Nkusu and Wellian Wiranto

2019/244: The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus

Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj and Swarnali Hannan

2019/243: Structural Unemployment in Luxembourg: Bad Luck or Rational Choice?

William Gbohoui

2019/242: Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability

Serhan Cevik

2019/241: A Quantitative Analysis of Female Employment in Senegal

Vivian Malta, Angelica Martinez and Marina Tavares

2019/240: Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies

Thomas McGregor

2019/239: Firm-Level Data and Monetary Policy: The Case of a Middle Income Country

Lahcen Bounader and Mohamed Doukali

2019/238: Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy

Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang

2019/237: Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession

Szilard Benk and Max Gillman

2019/236: Doing More with Less: How Can Brazil Foster Development While Pursuing Fiscal Consolidation?

Valentina Flamini and Mauricio Soto

2019/235: German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?

Anne-Charlotte Paret and Anke Weber

2019/234: International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Silvia Albrizio, Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri and Chansik Yoon

2019/233: Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy

Germán Gutiérrez, Callum Jones and Thomas Philippon

2019/232: On the Substitution of Private and Public Capital in Production

Zidong An, Alvar Kangur and Chris Papageorgiou

2019/231: Digitalization to Improve Tax Compliance: Evidence from VAT e-Invoicing in Peru

Matthieu Bellon, Jillie Chang, Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, Frederico Lima, Enrique Rojas and Pilar Villena

2019/230: In Search of Lost Time: Examining the Duration of Sudden Stops in Capital Flows

Antonio David and Carlos Goncalves

2019/229: Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target

Gee Hee Hong, Rahul Anand and Yaroslav Hul

2019/228: Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth

Andrew Tiffin

2019/227: Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-end Mutual Funds

Dunhong Jin, Marcin Kacperczyk, Bige Kahraman and Felix Suntheim

2019/226: Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt

Nicolas End, Marina Marinkov and Fedor Miryugin

2019/225: Reducing and Redistributing Unpaid Work: Stronger Policies to Support Gender Equality

Cristian Alonso, Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris, Yuko Kinoshita and Kalpana Kochhar

2019/224: Banks’ Holdings of Government Securities and Credit to the Private Sector in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Romain Bouis

2019/223: Do Audits Deter or Provoke Future Tax Noncompliance? Evidence on Self-employed Taxpayers

Sebastian Beer, Matthias Kasper, Erich Kirchler and Brian Erard

2019/222: The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Morocco

Babacar Sarr, Mokhtar Benlamine and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2019/221: Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Majdi Debbich

2019/220: Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework

Jana Bricco ('Gieck') and TengTeng Xu

2019/219: A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk

2019/218: Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance?

Kady Keita, Gene Leon and Frederico Lima

2019/217: Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries

Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina and Chris Papageorgiou

2019/216: Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli and Jay Rappaport

2019/215: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Matthew Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan Ng, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Jui-Chung Yang

2019/214: Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Samya Beidas-Strom and Marco Lorusso

2019/213: An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment

Ruud de Mooij, Li Liu and Dinar Prihardini

2019/212: Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet

Yugo Koshima

2019/211: Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

Etibar Jafarov, Rodolfo Maino and Marco Pani

2019/210: Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective

C. Emre Alper and Michal Miktus

2019/209: SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

Mishel Ghassibe, Maximiliano Appendino and Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi

2019/208: What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output

Bas Bakker

2019/207: The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Luis Brandão-Marques, Qianying Chen, Claudio Raddatz, Jerome Vandenbussche and Peichu Xie

2019/206: Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda

Benedicte Baduel, Carolin Geginat and Gaelle Pierre

2019/205: VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and UK Evidence

Li Liu, Ben Lockwood, Miguel Almunia and Eddy Tam

2019/204: Multiple Dimensions of Human Development Index and Public Social Spending for Sustainable Development

Iana Paliova, Robert McNown and Grant Nülle

2019/203: How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries

Remi Jedwab, Prakash Loungani and Anthony Yezer

2019/202: One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

2019/201: State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight

Bobana Cegar and Francisco Parodi

2019/200: How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

Alvar Kangur, Koralai Kirabaeva, Jean-Marc Natal and Simon Voigts

2019/199: US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs?

Eugenio Cerutti and Carolina Osorio-Buitron

2019/198: More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy

Daniel Baksa and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2019/197: Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean

Serhan Cevik and Tianle Zhu

2019/196: Is Military Spending Converging Across Countries? An Examination of Trends and Key Determinants

Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta and Saida Khamidova

2019/195: A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data

S. M. Ali Abbas and Kenneth Rogoff

2019/194: Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence

Diego Cerdeiro and András Komáromi

2019/193: The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

Tamim Bayoumi, Jelle Barkema and Diego Cerdeiro

2019/192: The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Rui Mano, Carolina Osorio-Buitron, Luca Ricci and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2019/191: Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva

2019/190: How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

Troy Matheson

2019/189: Credit Misallocation and Economic Growth in Vietnam

Mitsuru Katagiri

2019/188: Reallocating Public Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Can It Work?

Djeneba Doumbia and Tidiane Kinda

2019/187: Advancing Inclusive Growth in Cambodia

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Albe Gjonbalaj

2019/186: A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Ryota Nakatani

2019/185: Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Signe Krogstrup and William Oman

2019/184: Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

Nina Biljanovska, Lucyna Gornicka and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2019/183: The Negative Mean Output Gap

Shekhar Aiyar and Simon Voigts

2019/182: Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data

Erlend Nier, Radu Popa, Maral Shamloo and Liviu Voinea

2019/181: International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement

Sakai Ando

2019/180: Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

Will Kerry

2019/179: Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity

Jorge Alvarez and Claudia Berg

2019/178: Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Sebastian Acevedo, Claudio Baccianti, Mico Mrkaic, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva and Petia Topalova

2019/177: State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality

Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

2019/176: Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy

Eric Monnet and Miklos Vari

2019/175: The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

Hector Perez-Saiz, Jemma Dridi, Tunc Gursoy and Mounir Bari

2019/174: Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women

Rasmane Ouedraogo and Idrissa Ouedraogo

2019/173: The Economic Impact of Healthcare Quality

Anne-Line Koch Helsø, Nicola Pierri and Adelina Yanyue Wang

2019/172: Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts

Senay Agca, Deniz Igan, Fuhong Li and Prachi Mishra

2019/171: Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond

Deniz Igan and Thomas Lambert

2019/170: Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy

Seyed Reza Yousefi

2019/169: What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia

Gee Hee Hong, Anne Oeking, Kenneth Kang and Chang Yong Rhee

2019/168: Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence

Minsuk Kim

2019/167: Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Joannes Mongardini and Fan Zhang

2019/166: Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

Jonathan Benchimol and Lahcen Bounader

2019/165: Statistical Coverage of Trade Finance - Fintechs and Supply Chain Financing

Cornelia Lotte van Wersch

2019/164: The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

Deniz Igan, Hala Moussawi, Alexander Tieman, Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Giovanni Dell'ariccia and Paolo Mauro

2019/163: Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Francien Berry, Brian Graf, Michael Stanger and Mari Ylä-Jarkko

2019/162: The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Luca Ricci

2019/161: Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

2019/160: Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon and Margaux MacDonald

2019/159: A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability

Jean-Marc Fournier

2019/158: Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization

Jorge Alvarez, Ivo Krznar and Trevor Tombe

2019/157: Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

Nicolas Mäder, Jean-Guillaume Poulain and Julien Reynaud

2019/156: European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

Yuanyan Zhang

2019/155: Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America

Adriana Kugler

2019/154: New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito and Vivian Parlak

2019/153: Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Si Guo, Philippe Karam and Jan Vlcek

2019/152: Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Hidetaka Nishizawa, Scott Roger and Huan Zhang

2019/151: Public Investment in Bolivia: Prospects and Implications

Yehenew Endegnanew and Dawit Tessema

2019/150: International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending

Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri and Chansik Yoon

2019/149: Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

Christoph Freudenberg and Frederik Toscani