Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences

Alexander Culiuc

No 2020/060, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.

Keywords: WP; balance sheet effect; output loss; equilibrium depreciation; short-term debt; depreciation episode; expenditure switching effect; risk premium; debt intolerance; Depreciation; Financial statements; Currency mismatches; Exchange rates; Global; Exchange Rate; External Debt; Open Economy Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48
Date: 2020-05-22
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