IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2014/070: Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks

Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur

2014/069: Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows

Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens and Lev Ratnovski

2014/068: India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward

Muneesh Kapur and Rakesh Mohan

2014/067: Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

Magda Kandil

2014/066: Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates

Iryna Kaminska and Gabriele Zinna

2014/065: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Fabio Comelli

2014/064: Income Inequality, Fiscal Decentralization and Transfer Dependency

Caroline-Antonia Goerl and Mike Seiferling

2014/063: India: Defining and Explaining Inclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction

Rahul Anand, Volodymyr Tulin and Naresh Kumar

2014/062: Cross-Country Experience in Reducing Net Foreign Liabilities: Lessons for New Zealand

Ding Ding, Werner Schule and Yan Sun

2014/061: Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals: Purgatory…not Paradise

Nicolas Magud and Esteban Vesperoni

2014/060: Global Financial Shocks and Foreign Asset Repatriation: Do Local Investors Play a Stabilizing Role?

Gustavo Adler, Marie-Louise Djigbenou and Sebastian Sosa

2014/059: Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle

Alexander Klemm

2014/058: Strengthening Post-Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise — A New Dataset

Xavier Debrun and Tidiane Kinda

2014/057: Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model

Jaromir Benes, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton

2014/056: Financial Crises in DSGE Models: Selected Applications of MAPMOD

Jaromir Benes, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton

2014/055: Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison

Shaun Roache

2014/054: How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence?

Sonali Jain-Chandra and Longmei Zhang

2014/053: Safe-Haven Korea? - Spillover Effects from UMPs

Jack Ree and Seoeun Choi

2014/052: Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia

Romain Duval, Kevin Cheng, Kum Hwa Oh and Richa Saraf

2014/051: Surging Investment and Declining Aid: Evaluating Debt Sustainability in Rwanda

John Clark JR and Birgir Arnason

2014/050: Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model

Giovanni Melina, Susan Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2014/049: Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Susan Yang

2014/048: Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Catherine Pattillo, Andrea Presbitero and Yorbol Yakhshilikov

2014/047: Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown

Rahul Anand and Volodymyr Tulin

2014/046: The Regulatory Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: Some Uncomfortable Questions

Stijn Claessens and Laura Kodres

2014/045: Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior

Serhan Cevik and Katerina Teksoz

2014/044: Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal

Salifou Issoufou, Edward Buffie, Mouhamadou Bamba Diop and Kalidou Thiaw

2014/043: From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries

Naotaka Sugawara

2014/042: Quality, Trade, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Natalie Chen and Luciana Juvenal

2014/041: Managing Income Tax Compliance through Self-Assessment

Andrew Okello

2014/040: Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output

Ding Ding, John Nelmes, Roshan Perera and Volodymyr Tulin

2014/039: Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt

Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda

2014/038: Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Phakawa Jeasakul, Cheng Lim and Erik Lundback

2014/037: Asia’s Stock Markets: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?

Fabian Lipinsky and Li Ong

2014/036: Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index

Alexander Massara and André Mialou

2014/035: Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns

Oumar Diallo and Sampawende Tapsoba

2014/034: Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Andrea Pescatori, Damiano Sandri and John Simon

2014/033: Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies

Juan Medina and Claudia Soto

2014/032: Judicial System Reform in Italy - A Key to Growth

Gianluca Esposito, Sergi Lanau and Sebastiaan Pompe

2014/031: Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani and Natalia Tamirisa

2014/030: Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows

Juan Medina and Jorge Roldos

2014/029: Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?

Christian Hubert Ebeke and Yinqiu Lu

2014/028: The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

Oya Celasun, C. Di Bella, Tim Mahedy and Chris Papageorgiou

2014/027: Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

Serkan Arslanalp and Tigran Poghosyan

2014/026: Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe

Mai Dao, Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani

2014/025: What is Shadow Banking?

Stijn Claessens and Lev Ratnovski

2014/024: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Laurence Ball, Joao Jalles and Prakash Loungani

2014/023: Aggregate Stability and Balanced-Budget Rules

Matteo Ghilardi and Raffaele Rossi

2014/022: Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia

Longmei Zhang and Edda Zoli

2014/021: Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!

Iana Paliova and Tonny Lybek

2014/020: Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?

Eva Jenkner and Zhongjin Lu

2014/019: A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies

Francesco Grigoli

2014/018: Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2014/017: Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers

Frigyes Heinz and Yan Sun

2014/016: Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans

Dmitriy Kovtun, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Zuzana Murgasova, Dustin Smith and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2014/015: The Quest for Non-Resource-Based FDI: Do Taxes Matter?

Tidiane Kinda

2014/014: Financial Soundness Indicators and the Characteristics of Financial Cycles

Natasha Che and Yoko Shinagawa

2014/013: Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Giulia Bettin, Andrea Presbitero and Nikola Spatafora

2014/012: Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure

Jennifer Blouin, Harry Huizinga, Luc Laeven and Gaëtan Nicodème

2014/011: Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment

Atish Ghosh, Jonathan Ostry and Mahvash Qureshi

2014/010: Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Luca Errico, Artak Harutyunyan, Elena Loukoianova, Richard Walton, Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Hanan AbuShanab and Hyun Song Shin

2014/009: Global Liquidity through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

Kyuil Chung, Jong-Kun Lee, Elena Loukoianova, Hail Park and Hyun Song Shin

2014/008: Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions

Christian Saborowski, Sarah Sanya, Hans Weisfeld and Juan Yepez

2014/007: Reforming Tax Expenditures in Italy: What, Why, and How?

Justin Tyson

2014/006: Reforming Capital Taxation in Italy

Luc Eyraud

2014/005: Resource Blessing, Revenue Curse? Domestic Revenue Effort in Resource-Rich Countries

Ernesto Crivelli and Sanjeev Gupta

2014/004: Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China

Yuanyan Zhang and Steven Barnett

2014/003: Economic Growth and Government Spending in Saudi Arabia: an Empirical Investigation

Saad Alshahrani and Ali Al-Sadiq

2014/002: Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Rahul Anand, Kevin Cheng, Sidra Rehman and Longmei Zhang

2014/001: Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?

Marialuz Moreno Badia and Alex Segura-Ubiergo

2013/273: IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term

Christian Mumssen, Yasemin Bal Gündüz, Christian Ebeke and Linda Kaltani

2013/272: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Steven Phillips, Luis Catão, Luca Ricci, Rudolfs Bems, Mitali Das, Julian di Giovanni, Filiz Unsal, Marola Castillo, Jungjin Lee, Jair Rodriguez and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2013/271: Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality

Inessa Love and Rima Turk Ariss

2013/270: Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out

Fernando Broner, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura

2013/269: Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-based Approach

Lorenzo Forni and Massimiliano Pisani

2013/268: Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration

R. Craig, Changchun Hua, Philip Ng and Raymond Yuen

2013/267: Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Camelia Minoiu, Chungwon Kang, V.S. Subrahmanian and Anamaria Berea

2013/266: Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

2013/265: Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Marcos Chamon and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

2013/264: Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies

Laura Jaramillo and Anke Weber

2013/263: Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

Matias Costa Navajas and Aaron Thegeya

2013/262: The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited

Jaromir Benes, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir and Susanna Mursula

2013/261: Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique

Giovanni Melina and Yi Xiong

2013/260: External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Alan Taylor

2013/259: Resilience in Latin America: Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies

Jose De Gregorio

2013/258: Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

Hyun Song Shin

2013/257: System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties

Michal Andrle and Jaromir Benes

2013/256: Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Patrick Blagrave, Peter Elliott, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Doug Hostland, Douglas Laxton and Fan Zhang

2013/255: Securitization: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead

Miguel Segoviano, Bradley Jones, Peter Lindner and Johannes Blankenheim

2013/254: Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields

Laura Jaramillo and Yuanyan Zhang

2013/253: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

2013/252: A Financial Conditions Index for Poland

Giang Ho and Yinqiu Lu

2013/251: Monetary Transmission in Brazil: Has the Credit Channel Changed?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

2013/250: Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Paulo Drummond and Estelle Liu

2013/249: Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default

Michael Kumhof, Romain Ranciere and Pablo Winant

2013/248: This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Markus Eberhardt and Andrea Presbitero

2013/247: The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation

Anton Korinek and Jonathan Kreamer

2013/246: Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation

Risto Herrala and Rima Turk Ariss

2013/245: Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin

2013/244: Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort

Marco Committeri and Carola Pessino