IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2020/275: Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis

Deniz Igan, Maria Martinez Peria, Nicola Pierri and Andrea Presbitero

2020/274: Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Francesca Caselli, Daniel Stoehlker and Philippe Wingender

2020/273: Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam

Era Dabla-Norris, Giovanni Ganelli and Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen

2020/272: Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Geoffrey Bannister, Harald Finger, Siddharth Kothari and Elena Loukoianova

2020/271: Tax Policy and Inclusive Growth

Ruud de Mooij

2020/270: Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

2020/269: Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Benjamin Carton and Armand Fouejieu

2020/268: Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK

Nicolas Arregui and Ian Parry

2020/267: Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity

Gareth Anderson and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

2020/266: Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU

Alejandro Guerson

2020/265: Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China

Tamim Bayoumi and Yunhui Zhao

2020/264: International Taxation and Luxembourg’s Economy

Ruud de Mooij, Dinar Prihardini and Emil Stavrev

2020/263: Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?

Serhan Cevik and Belma Öztürkkal

2020/262: UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification

Jorge Chan-Lau

2020/261: Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea

2020/260: Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19

Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen and Yuanyan Zhang

2020/259: What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?

Jelle Barkema, Tryggvi Gudmundsson and Mico Mrkaic

2020/258: Local Currency Bond Markets Law Reform: A Methodology for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Wouter Bossu, Cory Hillier and Wolfgang Bergthaler

2020/257: Technological and Economic Decoupling in the Cyber Era

Daniel Garcia-Macia and Rishi Goyal

2020/256: Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle

Frederic Lambert, Andrea Pescatori and Frederik Toscani

2020/255: Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?

Serhan Cevik

2020/254: Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations

Wouter Bossu, Masaru Itatani and Arthur D. P. Rossi

2020/253: Energy, Efficiency Gains and Economic Development: When Will Global Energy Demand Saturate?

Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto and Andrea Pescatori

2020/252: Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion

Bertrand Gruss, Sandra Lizarazo and Francesco Grigoli

2020/251: India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting

Patrick Blagrave and Weicheng Lian

2020/250: Enhancing Fiscal Transparency and Reporting in India

Patrick Blagrave and Fabien Gonguet

2020/249: Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different?

Eugenio Cerutti, Catherine Koch and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan

2020/248: Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter?

Carine Meyimdjui

2020/247: Improving the Short-term Forecast of World Trade During the Covid-19 Pandemic Using Swift Data on Letters of Credit

Benjamin Carton, Nan Hu, Joannes Mongardini, Kei Moriya and Aneta Radzikowski

2020/246: Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy:The Role of Debt

Alexandra Fotiou

2020/245: Tax Evasion from Cross-Border Fraud: Does Digitalization Make a Difference?

Emmanouil Kitsios, Joao Jalles and Geneviève Verdier

2020/244: Optimal Simple Objectives for Monetary Policy when Banks Matter

Lien Laureys, Roland Meeks and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo

2020/243: Perfect Storm: Climate Change and Tourism

Serhan Cevik and Manuk Ghazanchyan

2020/242: The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination

Philipp Engler, Nathalie Pouokam, Diego Rodriguez Guzman and Irina Yakadina

2020/241: Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats

Chikako Baba, Cristina Batog, Enrique Flores, Borja Gracia, Izabela Karpowicz, Piotr Kopyrski, James Roaf, Anna Shabunina and Xin Xu

2020/240: Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses

Peter Williams

2020/239: China’s Rebalancing: Opportunities and Challenges for LAC Exporters

Nitya Aasaavari, Fabio Di Vittorio, Ana Lariau, Yuebo Li, Rui Mano and Pedro Rodriguez

2020/238: Stress Testing U.S. Leveraged Corporates in a COVID-19 World

Carlos Caceres, Diego Cerdeiro, Dan Pan and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2020/237: Pre- and Post-GFC Policy Multipliers

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2020/236: Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk

Tobias Adrian, Fernando Duarte, Nellie Liang and Pawel Zabczyk

2020/235: Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark: A Prototype for Other Countries

Nicoletta Batini, Ian Parry and Philippe Wingender

2020/234: Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns

Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian and Damiano Sandri

2020/233: COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach

John Ansah, Natan Epstein and Valeriu Nalban

2020/232: Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risks in Norway

Pierpaolo Grippa and Samuel Mann

2020/231: An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2020/230: External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma?

Hippolyte Balima, Deirdre Daly and Boileau Loko

2020/229: Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments

Kareem Ismail, Roberto Perrelli and Jessie Yang

2020/228: Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives

Reda Cherif, Marc Engher and Fuad Hasanov

2020/227: Constrained Efficient Borrowing with Sovereign Default Risk

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2020/226: Twenty Years of Unconventional Monetary Policies: Lessons and Way Forward for the Bank of Japan

Niklas Westelius

2020/225: Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers

Ghada Fayad and Hélène Poirson

2020/224: COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated?

Marshall Reinsdorf

2020/223: External Financing Dependence and Corporate Saving in ASEAN5

Xin Li

2020/222: Mobile Phone Ownership and Welfare: Evidence from South Africa’s Household Survey

Ken Miyajima

2020/221: The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Xiangming Fang, Siddharth Kothari, Cameron McLoughlin and Mustafa Yenice

2020/220: The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations

Antoine Levy, Luca Ricci and Alejandro Werner

2020/219: Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic

Tigran Poghosyan

2020/218: Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe

Jeffrey Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam and Sebastian Weber

2020/217: COVID-19 and Inequality in Asia: Breaking the Vicious Cycle

Emilia Jurzyk, Medha Madhu Nair, Nathalie Pouokam, Tahsin Saadi Sedik and Irina Yakadina

2020/216: A Vicious Cycle: How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest

Tahsin Saadi Sedik and Rui Xu

2020/215: Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond

Swarnali Hannan, Keiko Honjo and Mehdi Raissi

2020/214: A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout

Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and Swarnali Hannan

2020/213: Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises

Anja Baum, Paulo Medas, Alberto Soler and Mouhamadou Sy

2020/212: US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence

Yunhui Zhao

2020/211: Financial Frictions and Firm Informality: A General Equilibrium Perspective

Luis Franjo, Nathalie Pouokam and Francesco Turino

2020/210: Are Bilateral Trade Balances Irrelevant?

Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, Johannes Eugster and Florence Jaumotte

2020/209: Capital Gaps, Risk Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy

Fabian Lipinsky and Mirela Miescu

2020/208: IT Shields: Technology Adoption and Economic Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer

2020/207: COVID-19 and SME Failures

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

2020/206: Market Power, Growth, and Inclusion: The South African Experience

Vimal Thakoor

2020/205: Worker Mobility and Domestic Production Networks

Marvin Cardoza, Francesco Grigoli, Nicola Pierri and Cian Ruane

2020/204: Sovereign Investor Relations: From Principles to Practice

James Knight and Bill Northfield

2020/203: In the Eye of the Storm Firms and Capital Destruction in India

Martino Pelli, Jeanne Tschopp, Natalia Bezmaternykh and Kodjovi Eklou

2020/202: A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia

Daniel Baksa, Ales Bulir and Dyna Heng

2020/201: The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model

Thitipat Chansriniyom, Natan Epstein and Valeriu Nalban

2020/200: Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities

Yuko Hashimoto, Gee Hee Hong and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2020/199: The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet

Raphael Espinoza, Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez and Mouhamadou Sy

2020/198: Beyond the COVID-19 Crisis: A Framework for Sustainable Government-To-Person Mobile Money Transfers

Delphine Prady, Hervé Tourpe, Sonja Davidovic and Soheib Nunhuck

2020/197: Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Minsuk Kim, Rui Mano and Mico Mrkaic

2020/196: Should Inequality Factor into Central Banks' Decisions?

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Alessandro Lin and Rui Mano

2020/195: The Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean

Antonio David, Takuji Komatsuzaki and Samuel Pienknagura

2020/194: To Pass (or Not to Pass) Through International Fuel Price Changes to Domestic Fuel Prices in Developing Countries: What Are the Drivers?

Kangni Kpodar and Patrick Imam

2020/193: Fintech Credit Risk Assessment for SMEs: Evidence from China

Yiping Huang, Longmei Zhang, Zhenhua Li, Han Qiu, Tao Sun and Xue Wang

2020/192: Benchmark-Driven Investments in Emerging Market Bond Markets: Taking Stock

Serkan Arslanalp, Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel and Robin Koepke

2020/191: What are the Economic Effects of Pandemic Containment Policies? Evidence from Sweden

Jana Bricco ('Gieck'), Florian Misch and Alexandra Solovyeva

2020/190: Intangible Investment and Low Inflation: A Framework and Some Evidence

Subir Lall and Li Zeng

2020/189: Financial Amplification of Labor Supply Shocks

Nina Biljanovska and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2020/188: Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic

Allan Dizioli and Roberto Pinheiro

2020/187: Exchange Rates and Domestic Credit—Can Macroprudential Policy Reduce the Link?

Erlend Nier, Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson and Yuan Gao Rollinson

2020/186: What Drives Bank Lending Spreads and Collateral Requirements in the Kyrgyz Republic

Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

2020/185: Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization—Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia

Rocio Gondo Mori, Altynai Aidarova and Manmohan Singh

2020/184: Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?

Cristian Alonso, Andrew Berg, Siddharth Kothari, Chris Papageorgiou and Sidra Rehman

2020/183: Review of the Public Financial Management Reform Strategy for Pacific Island Countries, 2010-2020

Richard Allen, Majdeline El Rayess, Laura Doherty and Priya Goel

2020/182: Structural Changes in Japanese Firms: Business Dynamism in an Aging Society

Gee Hee Hong, Arata Ito, Yukiko Saito and Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen

2020/181: Reducing Risk While Sharing It: A Fiscal Recipe for The EU at the Time of COVID-19

Nicoletta Batini, Francesco Lamperti and Andrea Roventini

2020/180: Monetary Policy Under an Exchange Rate Anchor

Mariam El Hamiani Khatat, Mark Buessings-Loercks and Vincent Fleuriet

2020/179: Offshore Currency Markets: Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) in Asia

Jochen M. Schmittmann and Han Teng Chua

2020/178: Global Firms, National Corporate Taxes: An Evolution of Incompatibility

Shafik Hebous

2020/177: Strengthening Public Investment Management in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Getting more bang for the dollar!

A. E. Wayne Mitchell, Ann Marie Wickham and Manuel Rosales Torres

2020/176: Coordinating Revenue Incentive Policies in the Caribbean

Ding Ding, Samira Kalla, Manuel Rosales Torres and Abdoul Karim Sidibé