IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2020/295: Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

Jan Vlcek and Mikhail Pranovich

2020/294: Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown

Sophia Chen and Do Lee

2020/293: The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk

Francisco Roldán

2020/292: Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Can Sever, Rohit Goel, Dimitris Drakopoulos and Evan Papageorgiou

2020/291: House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India

Bhupal Singh

2020/290: Sovereign Debt Standstills

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Cesar Sosa Padilla

2020/289: Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Hans Weisfeld, Irineu de Carvalho Filho, Fabio Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Sandra Lizarazo, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel and Andrea Presbitero

2020/288: Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies

Hélène Poirson, Nathan Porter, Ghada Fayad, Itai Agur, Ran Bi, Jiaqian Chen, Johannes Eugster, Stefan Laséen, Jeta Menkulasi, Kenji Moriyama, Celine Rochon, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Camilo Tovar, Zhongxia Zhang and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2020/287: Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2020/286: Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2020/285: Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures

Jorge Chan-Lau and Yunhui Zhao

2020/284: Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

Diego Cerdeiro and András Komáromi

2020/283: Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage

Ilhyock Shim and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

2020/282: Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age

Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Damiano Sandri and Antonio Spilimbergo

2020/281: Youth Unemployment in Uruguay

José Torres

2020/280: Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

Luciana Juvenal

2020/279: Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Benjamin Hunt, Susanna Mursula, Rafael Portillo and Marika Santoro

2020/278: Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities

Klaus-Peter Hellwig

2020/277: Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

Francesco Grigoli and Jose Manuel Mota Aquino

2020/276: Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2020/275: Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis

Deniz Igan, Maria Martinez Peria, Nicola Pierri and Andrea Presbitero

2020/274: Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Francesca Caselli, Daniel Stoehlker and Philippe Wingender

2020/273: Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam

Era Dabla-Norris, Giovanni Ganelli and Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen

2020/272: Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Geoffrey Bannister, Harald Finger, Siddharth Kothari and Elena Loukoianova

2020/271: Tax Policy and Inclusive Growth

Ruud de Mooij

2020/270: Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

2020/269: Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Benjamin Carton and Armand Fouejieu

2020/268: Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK

Nicolas Arregui and Ian Parry

2020/267: Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity

Gareth Anderson and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

2020/266: Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU

Alejandro Guerson

2020/265: Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China

Tamim Bayoumi and Yunhui Zhao

2020/264: International Taxation and Luxembourg’s Economy

Ruud de Mooij, Dinar Prihardini and Emil Stavrev

2020/263: Contagion of Fear: Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?

Serhan Cevik and Belma Öztürkkal

2020/262: UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification

Jorge Chan-Lau

2020/261: Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea

2020/260: Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19

Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen and Yuanyan Zhang

2020/259: What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?

Jelle Barkema, Tryggvi Gudmundsson and Mico Mrkaic

2020/258: Local Currency Bond Markets Law Reform: A Methodology for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Wouter Bossu, Cory Hillier and Wolfgang Bergthaler

2020/257: Technological and Economic Decoupling in the Cyber Era

Daniel Garcia-Macia and Rishi Goyal

2020/256: Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle

Frederic Lambert, Andrea Pescatori and Frederik Toscani

2020/255: Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?

Serhan Cevik

2020/254: Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations

Wouter Bossu, Masaru Itatani and Arthur D. P. Rossi

2020/253: Energy, Efficiency Gains and Economic Development: When Will Global Energy Demand Saturate?

Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto and Andrea Pescatori

2020/252: Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion

Bertrand Gruss, Sandra Lizarazo and Francesco Grigoli

2020/251: India’s Inflation Process Before and After Flexible Inflation Targeting

Patrick Blagrave and Weicheng Lian

2020/250: Enhancing Fiscal Transparency and Reporting in India

Patrick Blagrave and Fabien Gonguet

2020/249: Banking Across Borders: Are Chinese Banks Different?

Eugenio Cerutti, Catherine Koch and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan

2020/248: Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter?

Carine Meyimdjui

2020/247: Improving the Short-term Forecast of World Trade During the Covid-19 Pandemic Using Swift Data on Letters of Credit

Benjamin Carton, Nan Hu, Joannes Mongardini, Kei Moriya and Aneta Radzikowski

2020/246: Non-Linearities in Fiscal Policy:The Role of Debt

Alexandra Fotiou

2020/245: Tax Evasion from Cross-Border Fraud: Does Digitalization Make a Difference?

Emmanouil Kitsios, Joao Jalles and Geneviève Verdier

2020/244: Optimal Simple Objectives for Monetary Policy when Banks Matter

Lien Laureys, Roland Meeks and Boromeus Wanengkirtyo

2020/243: Perfect Storm: Climate Change and Tourism

Serhan Cevik and Manuk Ghazanchyan

2020/242: The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination

Philipp Engler, Nathalie Pouokam, Diego Rodriguez Guzman and Irina Yakadina

2020/241: Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats

Chikako Baba, Cristina Batog, Enrique Flores, Borja Gracia, Izabela Karpowicz, Piotr Kopyrski, James Roaf, Anna Shabunina and Xin Xu

2020/240: Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses

Peter Williams

2020/239: China’s Rebalancing: Opportunities and Challenges for LAC Exporters

Nitya Aasaavari, Fabio Di Vittorio, Ana Lariau, Yuebo Li, Rui Mano and Pedro Rodriguez

2020/238: Stress Testing U.S. Leveraged Corporates in a COVID-19 World

Carlos Caceres, Diego Cerdeiro, Dan Pan and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2020/237: Pre- and Post-GFC Policy Multipliers

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2020/236: Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk

Tobias Adrian, Fernando Duarte, Nellie Liang and Pawel Zabczyk

2020/235: Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark: A Prototype for Other Countries

Nicoletta Batini, Ian Parry and Philippe Wingender

2020/234: Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns

Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian and Damiano Sandri

2020/233: COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach

John Ansah, Natan Epstein and Valeriu Nalban

2020/232: Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risks in Norway

Pierpaolo Grippa and Samuel Mann

2020/231: An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2020/230: External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma?

Hippolyte Balima, Deirdre Daly and Boileau Loko

2020/229: Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments

Kareem Ismail, Roberto Perrelli and Jessie Yang

2020/228: Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives

Reda Cherif, Marc Engher and Fuad Hasanov

2020/227: Constrained Efficient Borrowing with Sovereign Default Risk

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2020/226: Twenty Years of Unconventional Monetary Policies: Lessons and Way Forward for the Bank of Japan

Niklas Westelius

2020/225: Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers

Ghada Fayad and Hélène Poirson

2020/224: COVID-19 and the CPI: Is Inflation Underestimated?

Marshall Reinsdorf

2020/223: External Financing Dependence and Corporate Saving in ASEAN5

Xin Li

2020/222: Mobile Phone Ownership and Welfare: Evidence from South Africa’s Household Survey

Ken Miyajima

2020/221: The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Xiangming Fang, Siddharth Kothari, Cameron McLoughlin and Mustafa Yenice

2020/220: The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations

Antoine Levy, Luca Ricci and Alejandro Werner

2020/219: Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic

Tigran Poghosyan

2020/218: Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe

Jeffrey Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam and Sebastian Weber

2020/217: COVID-19 and Inequality in Asia: Breaking the Vicious Cycle

Emilia Jurzyk, Medha Madhu Nair, Nathalie Pouokam, Tahsin Saadi Sedik and Irina Yakadina

2020/216: A Vicious Cycle: How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest

Tahsin Saadi Sedik and Rui Xu

2020/215: Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond

Swarnali Hannan, Keiko Honjo and Mehdi Raissi

2020/214: A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout

Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and Swarnali Hannan

2020/213: Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises

Anja Baum, Paulo Medas, Alberto Soler and Mouhamadou Sy

2020/212: US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence

Yunhui Zhao

2020/211: Financial Frictions and Firm Informality: A General Equilibrium Perspective

Luis Franjo, Nathalie Pouokam and Francesco Turino

2020/210: Are Bilateral Trade Balances Irrelevant?

Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, Johannes Eugster and Florence Jaumotte

2020/209: Capital Gaps, Risk Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy

Fabian Lipinsky and Mirela Miescu

2020/208: IT Shields: Technology Adoption and Economic Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer

2020/207: COVID-19 and SME Failures

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

2020/206: Market Power, Growth, and Inclusion: The South African Experience

Vimal Thakoor

2020/205: Worker Mobility and Domestic Production Networks

Marvin Cardoza, Francesco Grigoli, Nicola Pierri and Cian Ruane

2020/204: Sovereign Investor Relations: From Principles to Practice

James Knight and Bill Northfield

2020/203: In the Eye of the Storm Firms and Capital Destruction in India

Martino Pelli, Jeanne Tschopp, Natalia Bezmaternykh and Kodjovi Eklou

2020/202: A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia

Daniel Baksa, Ales Bulir and Dyna Heng

2020/201: The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model

Thitipat Chansriniyom, Natan Epstein and Valeriu Nalban

2020/200: Demographics and the Housing Market: Japan’s Disappearing Cities

Yuko Hashimoto, Gee Hee Hong and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2020/199: The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet

Raphael Espinoza, Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez and Mouhamadou Sy

2020/198: Beyond the COVID-19 Crisis: A Framework for Sustainable Government-To-Person Mobile Money Transfers

Delphine Prady, Hervé Tourpe, Sonja Davidovic and Soheib Nunhuck

2020/197: Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Minsuk Kim, Rui Mano and Mico Mrkaic

2020/196: Should Inequality Factor into Central Banks' Decisions?

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Alessandro Lin and Rui Mano