IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2019/096: The Value Added Tax and Growth: Design Matters

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and Atsuyoshi Morozumi

2019/095: Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate

Jean-Marc Natal and Nicolas Stoffels

2019/094: Taming Financial Development to Reduce Crises

Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Quentin Lajaunie

2019/093: The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates?

Bo Jiang and Tahsin Saadi Sedik

2019/092: Fire Sales in Frozen Markets

Ehsan Ebrahimy

2019/091: Is Technology Widening the Gender Gap? Automation and the Future of Female Employment

Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid

2019/090: Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang

2019/089: Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates

David Coady, Ian Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le and Baoping Shang

2019/088: The Great Divide: Regional Inequality and Fiscal Policy

William Gbohoui, Waikei Lam and Victor Lledo

2019/087: Firm Size, Life Cycle Dynamics and Growth Constraints: Evidence from Mexico

Christian Saborowski and Florian Misch

2019/086: Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer

Torsten Wezel

2019/085: Capital Flows: The Role of Bank and Nonbank Balance Sheets

Yuko Hashimoto and Signe Krogstrup

2019/084: Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide

Ruchir Agarwal and Miles Kimball

2019/083: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis

Wenjie Chen, Mico Mrkaic and Malhar Nabar

2019/082: Global Declining Competition

Federico Diez, Jiayue Fan and Carolina Villegas-Sánchez

2019/081: Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis

Majdeline El Rayess, Avril Halstead, Jason Harris, John Ralyea and Alexander Tieman

2019/080: You Are Suffocating Me! Firm-Level Evidence on Crowding Out

Serhan Cevik

2019/079: The Financial Inclusion Landscape in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Dozen Key Findings

Sarwat Jahan, Jayendu De, Fazurin Jamaludin, Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon and Cormac Sullivan

2019/078: Death and Taxes: Does Taxation Matter for Firm Survival?

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2019/077: Illuminating Economic Growth

Yingyao Hu and Jiaxiong Yao

2019/076: Household Debt, Consumption, and Monetary Policy in Australia

Elena Loukoianova, Yu Ching Wong and Ioana Hussiada

2019/075: Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock

Rudolfs Bems, Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli and Bertrand Gruss

2019/074: The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

2019/073: NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained?

Mary Burfisher, Frederic Lambert and Troy Matheson

2019/072: Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States

Ali Alichi, Ippei Shibata and Kadir Tanyeri

2019/071: Fintech in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking

Pelin Berkmen, Kimberly Beaton, Dmitry Gershenson, Javier Arze del Granado, Kotaro Ishi, Marie Kim, Emanuel Kopp and Marina Rousset

2019/070: Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility

Serhan Cevik

2019/069: Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, Aitor Erce and Akira Sasahara

2019/068: Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries

Kangni Kpodar, Maëlan Le Goff and Raju Singh

2019/067: The Structural Determinants of the Labor Share in Europe

Dilyana Dimova

2019/066: Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database

Zohair Alam, Adrian Alter, Jesse Eiseman, R. Gaston Gelos, Heedon Kang, Machiko Narita, Erlend Nier and Naixi Wang

2019/065: The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update

Luis Cubeddu, Signe Krogstrup, Gustavo Adler, Pau Rabanal, Mai Dao, Swarnali Hannan, Luciana Juvenal, Carolina Osorio-Buitron, Cyril Rebillard, Daniel Garcia-Macia, Callum Jones, Jair Rodriguez, Kyun Suk Chang, Deepali Gautam, Zijiao Wang and Nan Li

2019/064: Self-Employment and Support for the Dutch Pension Reform

Izabela Karpowicz

2019/063: Fundamental and Speculative Demands for Housing

Weicheng Lian

2019/062: Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models

Daniel Gurara, Giovanni Melina and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2019/061: The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply

Hui He, Lei Ning and Dongming Zhu

2019/060: Attaining Selected Sustainable Development Goals in Guatemala: Spending, Provision, and Financing Needs

Esther Perez Ruiz and Mauricio Soto

2019/059: Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures

Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil

2019/058: Liquidity Management under Fixed Exchange Rate with Open Capital Account

Mariam El Hamiani Khatat and Romain Veyrune

2019/057: Two-Sided Market, R&D and Payments System Evolution

Grace Li, James McAndrews and Zhu Wang

2019/056: Unemployment Surges in the EU: The Role of Risk Premium Shocks

Bas Bakker, Marta Korczak and Krzysztof Krogulski

2019/055: More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets

Antonio David, Frederic Lambert and Frederik Toscani

2019/054: Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia

Alessandro Cantelmo, Leo Bonato, Giovanni Melina and Gonzalo Salinas

2019/053: The Russian State’s Size and its Footprint: Have They Increased?

C. Di Bella, Oksana Dynnikova and Slavi Slavov

2019/052: Determinants of Currency Composition of Reserves: a Portfolio Theory Approach with an Application to RMB

Yinqiu Lu and Yilin Wang

2019/051: Fiscal Redistribution and Social Welfare

David Coady, Devin D'Angelo and Brooks Evans

2019/050: China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime

Sonali Das

2019/049: Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Francesca Caselli and Julien Reynaud

2019/048: Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development

Dong Frank Wu and Friedrich Schneider

2019/047: Struggling to Make the Grade: A Review of the Causes and Consequences of the Weak Outcomes of South Africa’s Education System

Montfort Mlachila and Tlhalefang Moeletsi

2019/046: Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency

Tanai Khiaonarong and David Humphrey

2019/045: How Effective is Macroprudential Policy? Evidence from Lending Restriction Measures in EU Countries

Tigran Poghosyan

2019/044: Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data

Margherita Bottero, Camelia Minoiu, Jose-Luis Peydro, Andrea Polo, Andrea Presbitero and Enrico Sette

2019/043: Sovereigns and Financial Intermediaries Spillovers

Hamid Tabarraei, Abdelaziz Rouabah and Olivier Pierrard

2019/042: Improving the Efficiency and Equity of Public Education Spending: The Case of Moldova

Hui Jin, La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Baoping Shang

2019/041: Macroeconomic Gains from Reforming the Agri-Food Sector: The Case of France

Nicoletta Batini

2019/040: Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Ippei Shibata

2019/039: Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Valentina Flamini, Pierluigi Bologna, Fabio Di Vittorio and Rasool Zandvakil

2019/038: The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance Schemes on Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Spending: Evidence from Rwanda

Andinet Woldemichael, Daniel Gurara and Abebe Abebe

2019/037: Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

Constance de Soyres, Anna Rogantini Picco and Randa Sab

2019/036: Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Selim Elekdag, Phakawa Jeasakul, Romain Lafarguette, Adrian Alter, Alan Xiaochen Feng and Changchun Wang

2019/035: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Ali Alichi, Hayk Avetisyan, Douglas Laxton, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Lusine Torosyan and Hou Wang

2019/034: Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth

Shekhar Aiyar and Christian Hubert Ebeke

2019/033: Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Francesco Luna

2019/032: Destabilizing the Global Monetary System: Germany’s Adoption of the Gold Standard in the Early 1870s

Johannes Wiegand

2019/031: Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

Fei Han

2019/030: Structural Transformation and Tax Efficiency

Serhan Cevik, Jan Gottschalk, Eric Hutton, Laura Jaramillo, Pooja Karnane and Moussé Sow

2019/029: Do Temporary Business Tax Cuts Matter? A General Equilibrium Analysis

William Gbohoui

2019/028: Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks

Chiara Broccolini, Giulia Lotti, Alessandro Maffioli, Andrea Presbitero and Rodolfo Stucchi

2019/027: The Use of Data in Assessing and Designing Insolvency Systems

Jose Garrido, Wolfgang Bergthaler, Chanda DeLong, Juliet Johnson, Amira Rasekh, Anjum Rosha and Natalia Stetsenko

2019/026: Importing Inputs for Climate Change Mitigation: The Case of Agricultural Productivity

Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Akira Sasahara and Hans Weisfeld

2019/025: Export Competitiveness - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern?

Kangni Kpodar, Stefania Fabrizio and Kodjovi Eklou

2019/024: Reinvigorating Growth in Belize

Dmitry Vasilyev

2019/023: Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia’s Local Currency Bond Market

David Grigorian

2019/022: Reform Options for Mature Defined Benefit Pension Plans: The Case of the Netherlands

Marc Gerard

2019/021: Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database

Bertrand Gruss and Suhaib Kebhaj

2019/020: Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach

Burcu Hacibedel, Pierre Mandon, Priscilla Muthoora and Nathalie Pouokam

2019/019: Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?

Juan Corrales and Patrick Imam

2019/018: Global Value Chains: What are the Benefits and Why Do Countries Participate?

Faezeh Raei, Anna Ignatenko and Borislava Mircheva

2019/017: Innovation and Corporate Cash Holdings in the Era of Globalization

Konrad Adler, JaeBin Ahn and Mai Dao

2019/016: China’s Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks

Longmei Zhang and Sally Chen

2019/015: Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan

Sriram Balasubramanian and Paul Cashin

2019/014: Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

Eugenio Cerutti, Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou

2019/013: Corporate Tax Reform: From Income to Cash Flow Taxes

Benjamin Carton, Emilio Fernández Corugedo and Benjamin Hunt

2019/012: The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

Michal Andrle

2019/011: Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?

R. Gaston Gelos, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Machiko Narita, Federico Grinberg, Umang Rawat and Shujaat Khan

2019/010: Fiscal Implications of Government Wage Bill Spending

Kamil Dybczak and Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

2019/009: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Rose

2019/008: Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis

Emine Boz, Nan Li and Hongrui Zhang

2019/007: Revenue Implications of Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxation

Shafik Hebous, Alexander Klemm and Saila Stausholm

2019/006: Public Debt Through the Ages

Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa ElGanainy, Rui Esteves and Kris James Mitchener

2019/005: Bank Profitability and Financial Stability

TengTeng Xu, Kun Hu and Udaibir Das

2019/004: Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries

Bernardin Akitoby, Jiro Honda and Hiroaki Miyamoto

2019/003: Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?

Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2019/002: The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs

Hippolyte Balima and Amadou Sy

2019/001: A Governance Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa?

Amine Hammadi, Marshall Mills, Nelson Sobrinho, Vimal Thakoor and Ricardo Velloso

2018/999: Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies

Hamid Tabarraei, Hamed Ghiaie and Asghar Shahmoradi

2018/286: In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries

Futoshi Narita and Rujun Yin

2018/285: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

2018/284: IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries

Tejesh Pradhan and Ali Al-Sadiq