IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2019/223: Do Audits Deter or Provoke Future Tax Noncompliance? Evidence on Self-employed Taxpayers

Sebastian Beer, Matthias Kasper, Erich Kirchler and Brian Erard

2019/222: The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Morocco

Babacar Sarr, Mokhtar Benlamine and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2019/221: Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17

Majdi Debbich

2019/220: Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework

Jana Bricco ('Gieck') and TengTeng Xu

2019/219: A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk

2019/218: Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance?

Kady Keita, Gene Leon and Frederico Lima

2019/217: Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries

Alessandro Cantelmo, Giovanni Melina and Chris Papageorgiou

2019/216: Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli and Jay Rappaport

2019/215: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Matthew Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan Ng, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Jui-Chung Yang

2019/214: Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Samya Beidas-Strom and Marco Lorusso

2019/213: An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment

Ruud de Mooij, Li Liu and Dinar Prihardini

2019/212: Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet

Yugo Koshima

2019/211: Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

Etibar Jafarov, Rodolfo Maino and Marco Pani

2019/210: Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective

C. Emre Alper and Michal Miktus

2019/209: SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

Mishel Ghassibe, Maximiliano Appendino and Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi

2019/208: What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output

Bas Bakker

2019/207: The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Luis Brandão-Marques, Qianying Chen, Claudio Raddatz, Jerome Vandenbussche and Peichu Xie

2019/206: Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda

Benedicte Baduel, Carolin Geginat and Gaëlle Pierre

2019/205: VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and UK Evidence

Li Liu, Ben Lockwood, Miguel Almunia and Eddy Tam

2019/204: Multiple Dimensions of Human Development Index and Public Social Spending for Sustainable Development

Iana Paliova, Robert McNown and Grant Nülle

2019/203: How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries

Remi Jedwab, Prakash Loungani and Anthony Yezer

2019/202: One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

2019/201: State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight

Bobana Cegar and Francisco Parodi

2019/200: How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

Alvar Kangur, Koralai Kirabaeva, Jean-Marc Natal and Simon Voigts

2019/199: US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs?

Eugenio Cerutti and Carolina Osorio-Buitron

2019/198: More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy

Daniel Baksa and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2019/197: Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean

Serhan Cevik and Tianle Zhu

2019/196: Is Military Spending Converging Across Countries? An Examination of Trends and Key Determinants

Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta and Saida Khamidova

2019/195: A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data

S. M. Ali Abbas and Kenneth Rogoff

2019/194: Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence

Diego Cerdeiro and András Komáromi

2019/193: The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

Tamim Bayoumi, Jelle Barkema and Diego Cerdeiro

2019/192: The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Rui Mano, Carolina Osorio-Buitron, Luca Ricci and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2019/191: Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva

2019/190: How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

Troy Matheson

2019/189: Credit Misallocation and Economic Growth in Vietnam

Mitsuru Katagiri

2019/188: Reallocating Public Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Can It Work?

Djeneba Doumbia and Tidiane Kinda

2019/187: Advancing Inclusive Growth in Cambodia

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Albe Gjonbalaj

2019/186: A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Ryota Nakatani

2019/185: Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Signe Krogstrup and William Oman

2019/184: Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

Nina Biljanovska, Lucyna Gornicka and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2019/183: The Negative Mean Output Gap

Shekhar Aiyar and Simon Voigts

2019/182: Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data

Erlend Nier, Radu Popa, Maral Shamloo and Liviu Voinea

2019/181: International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement

Sakai Ando

2019/180: Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

Will Kerry

2019/179: Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity

Jorge Alvarez and Claudia Berg

2019/178: Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Sebastian Acevedo, Claudio Baccianti, Mico Mrkaic, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva and Petia Topalova

2019/177: State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality

Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

2019/176: Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy

Eric Monnet and Miklos Vari

2019/175: The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

Hector Perez-Saiz, Jemma Dridi, Tunc Gursoy and Mounir Bari

2019/174: Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women

Rasmane Ouedraogo and Idrissa Ouedraogo

2019/173: The Economic Impact of Healthcare Quality

Anne-Line Koch Helsø, Nicola Pierri and Adelina Yanyue Wang

2019/172: Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts

Senay Agca, Deniz Igan, Fuhong Li and Prachi Mishra

2019/171: Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond

Deniz Igan and Thomas Lambert

2019/170: Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy

Seyed Reza Yousefi

2019/169: What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia

Gee Hee Hong, Anne Oeking, Kenneth Kang and Chang Yong Rhee

2019/168: Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence

Minsuk Kim

2019/167: Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Joannes Mongardini and Fan Zhang

2019/166: Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

Jonathan Benchimol and Lahcen Bounader

2019/165: Statistical Coverage of Trade Finance - Fintechs and Supply Chain Financing

Cornelia Lotte van Wersch

2019/164: The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

Deniz Igan, Hala Moussawi, Alexander Tieman, Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Giovanni Dell'ariccia and Paolo Mauro

2019/163: Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Francien Berry, Brian Graf, Michael Stanger and Mari Ylä-Jarkko

2019/162: The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Luca Ricci

2019/161: Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

2019/160: Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon and Margaux MacDonald

2019/159: A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability

Jean-Marc Fournier

2019/158: Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization

Jorge Alvarez, Ivo Krznar and Trevor Tombe

2019/157: Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

Nicolas Mäder, Jean-Guillaume Poulain and Julien Reynaud

2019/156: European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

Yuanyan Zhang

2019/155: Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America

Adriana Kugler

2019/154: New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito and Vivian Parlak

2019/153: Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Si Guo, Philippe Karam and Jan Vlcek

2019/152: Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Hidetaka Nishizawa, Scott Roger and Huan Zhang

2019/151: Public Investment in Bolivia: Prospects and Implications

Yehenew Endegnanew and Dawit Tessema

2019/150: International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending

Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri and Chansik Yoon

2019/149: Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

Christoph Freudenberg and Frederik Toscani

2019/148: Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico

Frederic Lambert and Hyunmin Park

2019/147: Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Patrick Blagrave

2019/146: Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa

Paul Mathieu, Marco Pani, Shiyuan Chen and Rodolfo Maino

2019/145: Climate Disaster Risks – Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

Stefan Mittnik, Willi Semmler and Alexander Haider

2019/144: Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries

Ronald James, Jemma Lafeuillee, Mike Xin Li, Gonzalo Salinas and Yevgeniya Savchenko

2019/143: Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

Carlos Caceres, Diego Cerdeiro and Rui Mano

2019/142: Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share

Weicheng Lian

2019/141: The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects

Antonio David, Jaime Guajardo and Juan Yepez

2019/140: Competition and Bank Risk the Role of Securitization and Bank Capital

Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Michiel Van Leuvensteijn and Tianshu Zhao

2019/139: Public Wealth in the United States

Fabien Gonguet and Klaus-Peter Hellwig

2019/138: Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?

Jochen Andritzky and Julian Schumacher

2019/137: Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan

Mariana Colacelli and Gee Hee Hong

2019/136: Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations

Fei Han and Niklas Westelius

2019/135: E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia

Tidiane Kinda

2019/134: The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat

Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva, Yannick Timmer and Petia Topalova

2019/133: The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound

Adalgiso Amendola, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Giovanni Melina

2019/132: The Measurement of External Accounts

Gustavo Adler, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Signe Krogstrup

2019/131: Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Plamen Iossifov and Xuan Fei

2019/130: How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States?

Agustin Velasquez and Svetlana Vtyurina

2019/129: Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Cheikh Gueye, Asithandile Mbelu and Amadou Sy

2019/128: Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2019/127: From Basel I to Basel III: Sequencing Implementation in Developing Economies

Caio Ferreira, Nigel Jenkinson and Christopher Wilson

2019/126: Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan, Shu-Chun Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2019/125: Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages

Juin-jen Chang, Hsieh-Yu Lin, Nora Traum and Shu-Chun Yang

2019/124: The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

Lisandro Abrego, Maria Amado, Tunc Gursoy, Garth Nicholls and Hector Perez-Saiz