IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2018/236: The Expansionary Lower Bound: Contractionary Monetary Easing and the Trilemma

Paolo Cavallino and Damiano Sandri

2018/235: Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Coordination Among Multiple Equilibria

Itai Agur

2018/234: Tax Revenue Mobilization Episodes in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries: Lessons from a New Dataset

Bernardin Akitoby, Anja Baum, Clay Hackney, Olamide Harrison, Keyra Primus and Veronique Salins

2018/233: Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti

Alexei Kireyev

2018/232: The Labor Market Integration of Migrants in Europe: New Evidence from Micro Data

Giang Ho and Rima Turk Ariss

2018/231: The Limits of Meritocracy

John Morgan, Justin Tumlinson and Felix Vardy

2018/230: An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

Jin-Kyu Jung, Manasa Patnam and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

2018/229: Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Tamim Bayoumi, Maximiliano Appendino, Jelle Barkema and Diego Cerdeiro

2018/228: The Morning After--The Impact on Collateral Supply After a Major Default

Dermot Turing and Manmohan Singh

2018/227: The Cost and Benefits of Tax Treaties with Investment Hubs: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa

Sebastian Beer and Jan Loeprick

2018/225: Rightsizing Brazil’s Public-Sector Wage Bill

Izabela Karpowicz and Mauricio Soto

2018/224: Structural Reform Priorities for Brazil

Nina Biljanovska and Damiano Sandri

2018/223: Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation

Manoj Atolia, Prakash Loungani, Milton Marquis and Chris Papageorgiou

2018/222: The Effects of Higher Bank Capital Requirements on Credit in Peru

Xiangming Fang, David Jutrsa, Maria Martinez Peria, Andrea Presbitero, Lev Ratnovski and Felix Vardy

2018/221: Sectoral Booms and Misallocation of Managerial Talent: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Boom

Yu Shi

2018/220: Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations

Era Dabla-Norris and Frederico Lima

2018/219: China's Local Government Bond Market

Waikei Lam and Jingsen Wang

2018/218: The Insolvency Regime for Large Enterprises in Italy: An Economic and Legal Assessment

Nazim Belhocine, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Jose Garrido

2018/217: Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures

Eugenio Cerutti and Haonan Zhou

2018/216: China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

Linxi Chen, Ding Ding and Rui Mano

2018/215: Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?

Shai Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino and Tim McQuade

2018/214: Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature

Swarnali Hannan

2018/213: No Pain, All Gain? Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Expenditure-Switching Effect

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Nicolas Magud and Juan Yepez

2018/212: Closing Gender Gaps in India: Does Increasing Womens’ Access to Finance Help?

Purva Khera

2018/211: What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings

Tim Willems

2018/210: An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank

Rania Al-Mashat, Ales Bulir, Nazire Nergiz Dincer, Tibor Hlédik, Tomas Holub, Asya Kostanyan, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurbekyan, Rafael Portillo and Hou Wang

2018/209: House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach

Mitsuru Katagiri

2018/208: Financial Access Under the Microscope

Sumit Agarwal, Thomas Kigabo, Camelia Minoiu, Andrea Presbitero and Andre Silva

2018/207: Technology and the Future of Work

Adrian Peralta and Agustin Roitman

2018/206: Systemic Banking Crises Revisited

Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia

2018/205: An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions

Filippo Balestrieri and Suman Basu

2018/204: The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016

Philip Barrett

2018/203: Carbon Taxation for International Maritime Fuels: Assessing the Options

Ian Parry, Dirk Heine, Kelley Kizzier and Tristan Smith

2018/202: Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy

Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson

2018/201: Fintech, Inclusive Growth and Cyber Risks: Focus on the MENAP and CCA Regions

Inutu Lukonga

2018/200: Dollarization and Financial Development

Geoffrey Bannister, Jarkko Turunen and Malin Gardberg

2018/199: External Audit Arrangements at Central Banks

Atilla Arda, Martin Gororo, Joanna Grochalska and Mowele Mohlala

2018/198: Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti

Ioana Moldovan, Marina Rousset and Chris Walker

2018/197: Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Searching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks

Ron Anderson, Jon Danielsson, Chikako Baba, Udaibir Das, Heedon Kang and Miguel Segoviano

2018/196: Household Wealth and Resilience to Financial Shocks in Italy

Daniel Garcia-Macia

2018/195: The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach

Sandile Hlatshwayo, Anne Oeking, Manuk Ghazanchyan, David Corvino, Ananya Shukla and Lamin Leigh

2018/194: Household Leverage and the Recession

Callum Jones, Virgiliu Midrigan and Thomas Philippon

2018/193: Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries

Ian Parry, Victor Mylonas and Nate Vernon-Lin

2018/192: Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates

Qianying Chen, Mitsuru Katagiri and Jay Surti

2018/191: Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money

Katrin Assenmacher and Signe Krogstrup

2018/190: Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet

Ezequiel Cabezon and Christian Henn

2018/189: Fiscal Transparency, Borrowing Costs, and Foreign Holdings of Sovereign Debt

Laurent Kemoe and Zaijin Zhan

2018/188: Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Yasser Abdih, Li Lin and Anne-Charlotte Paret

2018/187: Foreign Direct Investment in New Member State of the EU and Western Balkans: Taking Stock and Assessing Prospects

La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Jesmin Rahman

2018/186: Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies

Gabriele Ciminelli, Romain Duval and Davide Furceri

2018/185: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: An Appraisal

Nigel Chalk, Michael Keen and Victoria Perry

2018/184: Road to Industrialized Africa: Role of Efficient Factor Market in Firm Growth

Manabu Nose

2018/183: Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-side Framework: The Case of Argentina

Lusine Lusinyan

2018/182: Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits

Francesca Caselli and Philippe Wingender

2018/181: Predicting Fiscal Crises

Svetlana Cerovic, Kerstin Gerling, Andrew Hodge and Paulo Medas

2018/180: The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

Tobias Adrian, Federico Grinberg, Nellie Liang and Sheheryar Malik

2018/179: Size Dependent Policies, Informality and Misallocation

Era Dabla-Norris, Laura Jaramillo, Frederico Lima and Alexandre Sollaci

2018/178: A Behavioral Approach to Financial Supervision, Regulation, and Central Banking

Ashraf Khan

2018/177: Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa

Ken Miyajima and James Yetman

2018/176: Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors

Ashraf Khan

2018/175: Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts

Lisbeth Rivas and Joe Crowley

2018/174: Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Issues, Options, and Illustration for India

David Coady and Delphine Prady

2018/173: Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa

Alain Kabundi and Montfort Mlachila

2018/172: Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia

Serkan Arslanalp, Jaewoo Lee and Umang Rawat

2018/171: Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Davide Malacrino and Luigi Pistaferri

2018/170: Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

Davide Furceri and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2018/169: Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?

C. Di Bella, Francesco Grigoli and Francisco Ramirez

2018/168: International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review of the Channels, Magnitudes, and Blind Spots

Sebastian Beer, Ruud de Mooij and Li Liu

2018/167: Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations

Juan Angel Garcia and Sebastian Werner

2018/166: Tax Spillovers from US Corporate Income Tax Reform

Sebastian Beer, Alexander Klemm and Thornton Matheson

2018/165: Still Attached? Are Social Safety Nets Working? Labor Force Participation in European Regions

Benjamin Hilgenstock and Zsoka Koczan

2018/164: Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies

Nan Geng

2018/163: Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters

John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh

2018/162: Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU

Balázs Csontó, Alejandro Guerson, Alla Myrvoda and Emefa Sewordor

2018/161: Investment Slowdown in Denmark: Diagnosis and Policy Options

Tigran Poghosyan

2018/160: Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles: How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit

Iacovos Ioannou

2018/159: Losing to Blackouts: Evidence from Firm Level Data

Daniel Gurara and Dawit Tessema

2018/158: Who Pays for Financial Crises? Price and Quantity Rationing of Different Borrowers by Domestic and Foreign Banks

Allen Berger, Tanakorn Makaew and Rima Turk Ariss

2018/157: Bank Competition, Risk Taking, and their Consequences: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage and Labor Markets

Alan Xiaochen Feng

2018/156: Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile

Andrea Pescatori

2018/155: Self-insurance Against Natural Disasters: The Use of Pension Funds in Pacific Island Countries

Si Guo and Futoshi Narita

2018/154: Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation

Juan Angel Garcia and Aubrey Poon

2018/153: Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Markus Eberhardt and Andrea Presbitero

2018/152: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Ali Alichi, Rania Al-Mashat, Hayk Avetisyan, Jaromir Benes, Olivier Bizimana, Aram Butavyan, Robert Ford, Narek Ghazaryan, Vahagn Grigoryan, Mane Harutyunyan, Anahit Hovhannisyan, Edgar Hovhannisyan, Hayk Karapetyan, Mariam Kharaishvili, Douglas Laxton, Akaki Liqokeli, Karolina Matikyan, Gevorg Minasyan, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Andrei Orlov, Babken Pashinyan, Garik Petrosyan, Yekaterina Rezepina, Aleksandr Shirkhanyan, Tamta Sopromadze, Lusine Torosyan, Erik Vardanyan, Hou Wang and Jiaxiong Yao

2018/151: Evaluating IMF Training: What Can We Learn?

Hali Edison, Dimitre Milkov and Josephat Koima

2018/150: Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence

Francesco Grigoli, Zsoka Koczan and Petia Topalova

2018/149: An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka

Chandranath Amarasekara, Rahul Anand, Kithsiri Ehelepola, Hemantha Ekanayake, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema, Sujeetha Jegajeevan, Csaba Kober, Tharindi Nugawela, Sergey Plotnikov, Adam Remo, Poongothai Venuganan and Rasika Yatigammana

2018/148: Storm Clouds Ahead? Migration and Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe

Benjamin Hilgenstock and Zsoka Koczan

2018/147: Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and Juan Angel Garcia

2018/146: The Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Fiscal Consolidations in Low-income Countries

Adrian Peralta, Marina Tavares, Xuan Tam and Xin Tang

2018/145: The Globalization of Farmland: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Rabah Arezki, Christian Bogmans and Harris Selod

2018/144: The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Sebastian Acevedo, Mico Mrkaic, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva and Petia Topalova

2018/143: Cyber Risk for the Financial Sector: A Framework for Quantitative Assessment

Antoine Bouveret

2018/142: The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Antonio David and Daniel Leigh

2018/141: Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

Samba Mbaye, Marialuz Moreno Badia and Kyungla Chae

2018/140: A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

Emanuel Kopp and Peter Williams

2018/139: Determinants of U.S. Business Investment

Emanuel Kopp

2018/138: Understanding U.S. Wage Dynamics

Yasser Abdih and Stephan Danninger

2018/137: Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications

Federico Diez, Daniel Leigh and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2018/136: How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico

Zsoka Koczan and Franz Loyola