IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2019/194: Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence

Diego Cerdeiro and András Komáromi

2019/193: The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

Tamim Bayoumi, Jelle Barkema and Diego Cerdeiro

2019/192: The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Rui Mano, Carolina Osorio-Buitron, Luca Ricci and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2019/191: Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva

2019/190: How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

Troy Matheson

2019/189: Credit Misallocation and Economic Growth in Vietnam

Mitsuru Katagiri

2019/188: Reallocating Public Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Can It Work?

Djeneba Doumbia and Tidiane Kinda

2019/187: Advancing Inclusive Growth in Cambodia

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Albe Gjonbalaj

2019/186: A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Ryota Nakatani

2019/185: Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Signe Krogstrup and William Oman

2019/184: Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

Nina Biljanovska, Lucyna Gornicka and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2019/183: The Negative Mean Output Gap

Shekhar Aiyar and Simon Voigts

2019/182: Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data

Erlend Nier, Radu Popa, Maral Shamloo and Liviu Voinea

2019/181: International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement

Sakai Ando

2019/180: Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

Will Kerry

2019/179: Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity

Jorge Alvarez and Claudia Berg

2019/178: Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Sebastian Acevedo, Claudio Baccianti, Mico Mrkaic, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva and Petia Topalova

2019/177: State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality

Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

2019/176: Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy

Eric Monnet and Miklos Vari

2019/175: The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

Hector Perez-Saiz, Jemma Dridi, Tunc Gursoy and Mounir Bari

2019/174: Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women

Rasmane Ouedraogo and Idrissa Ouedraogo

2019/173: The Economic Impact of Healthcare Quality

Anne-Line Koch Helsø, Nicola Pierri and Adelina Yanyue Wang

2019/172: Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts

Senay Agca, Deniz Igan, Fuhong Li and Prachi Mishra

2019/171: Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond

Deniz Igan and Thomas Lambert

2019/170: Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy

Seyed Reza Yousefi

2019/169: What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia

Gee Hee Hong, Anne Oeking, Kenneth Kang and Chang Yong Rhee

2019/168: Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence

Minsuk Kim

2019/167: Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Joannes Mongardini and Fan Zhang

2019/166: Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

Jonathan Benchimol and Lahcen Bounader

2019/165: Statistical Coverage of Trade Finance - Fintechs and Supply Chain Financing

Cornelia Lotte van Wersch

2019/164: The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

Deniz Igan, Hala Moussawi, Alexander Tieman, Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Giovanni Dell'ariccia and Paolo Mauro

2019/163: Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Francien Berry, Brian Graf, Michael Stanger and Mari Ylä-Jarkko

2019/162: The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Luca Ricci

2019/161: Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

2019/160: Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon and Margaux MacDonald

2019/159: A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability

Jean-Marc Fournier

2019/158: Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization

Jorge Alvarez, Ivo Krznar and Trevor Tombe

2019/157: Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

Nicolas Mäder, Jean-Guillaume Poulain and Julien Reynaud

2019/156: European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

Yuanyan Zhang

2019/155: Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America

Adriana Kugler

2019/154: New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito and Vivian Parlak

2019/153: Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Si Guo, Philippe Karam and Jan Vlcek

2019/152: Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Hidetaka Nishizawa, Scott Roger and Huan Zhang

2019/151: Public Investment in Bolivia: Prospects and Implications

Yehenew Endegnanew and Dawit Tessema

2019/150: International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending

Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri and Chansik Yoon

2019/149: Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

Christoph Freudenberg and Frederik Toscani

2019/148: Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico

Frederic Lambert and Hyunmin Park

2019/147: Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Patrick Blagrave

2019/146: Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa

Paul Mathieu, Marco Pani, Shiyuan Chen and Rodolfo Maino

2019/145: Climate Disaster Risks – Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

Stefan Mittnik, Willi Semmler and Alexander Haider

2019/144: Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries

Ronald James, Jemma Lafeuillee, Mike Xin Li, Gonzalo Salinas and Yevgeniya Savchenko

2019/143: Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

Carlos Caceres, Diego Cerdeiro and Rui Mano

2019/142: Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share

Weicheng Lian

2019/141: The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects

Antonio David, Jaime Guajardo and Juan Yepez

2019/140: Competition and Bank Risk the Role of Securitization and Bank Capital

Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Michiel Van Leuvensteijn and Tianshu Zhao

2019/139: Public Wealth in the United States

Fabien Gonguet and Klaus-Peter Hellwig

2019/138: Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?

Jochen Andritzky and Julian Schumacher

2019/137: Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan

Mariana Colacelli and Gee Hee Hong

2019/136: Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations

Fei Han and Niklas Westelius

2019/135: E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia

Tidiane Kinda

2019/134: The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat

Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva, Yannick Timmer and Petia Topalova

2019/133: The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound

Adalgiso Amendola, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Giovanni Melina

2019/132: The Measurement of External Accounts

Gustavo Adler, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Signe Krogstrup

2019/131: Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Plamen Iossifov and Xuan Fei

2019/130: How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States?

Agustin Velasquez and Svetlana Vtyurina

2019/129: Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Cheikh Gueye, Asithandile Mbelu and Amadou Sy

2019/128: Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2019/127: From Basel I to Basel III: Sequencing Implementation in Developing Economies

Caio Ferreira, Nigel Jenkinson and Christopher Wilson

2019/126: Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan, Shu-Chun Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2019/125: Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages

Juin-jen Chang, Hsieh-Yu Lin, Nora Traum and Shu-Chun Yang

2019/124: The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

Lisandro Abrego, Maria Amado, Tunc Gursoy, Garth Nicholls and Hector Perez-Saiz

2019/123: Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union

Mirko Abbritti and Sebastian Weber

2019/122: Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind

Tamim Bayoumi and Jelle Barkema

2019/121: Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo

Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim and Concha Verdugo Yepes

2019/120: U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

Emanuel Kopp, Daniel Leigh, Susanna Mursula and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2019/119: Do Interest Rate Controls Work? Evidence from Kenya

C. Emre Alper, Benedict Clements, Niko Hobdari and Rafel Moyà Porcel

2019/118: Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries and Small States: Do Country Size and Income Level Matter?

Dongyeol Lee and Huan Zhang

2019/117: Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries

Dongyeol Lee

2019/116: Trade Linkages and International Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence from Korean Industry Data

Dongyeol Lee

2019/115: Analyzing the Effects of Financial and Housing Wealth on Consumption using Micro Data

Carlos Caceres

2019/114: Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh

2019/113: Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

David Amaglobeli, Laura Jaramillo, Pooja Karnane and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2019/112: Informality and Gender Gaps Going Hand in Hand

Vivian Malta, Lisa Kolovich, Angelica Martinez and Marina Tavares

2019/111: Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks

Yu Shi, Robert Townsend and Wu Zhu

2019/110: Government Wage Bill Management and Civil Service Reform in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

A. E. Wayne Mitchell, Ronald James and Ann Marie Wickham

2019/109: FinTech in Financial Inclusion: Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk

Majid Bazarbash

2019/108: Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries

Tokhir Mirzoev and Ling Zhu

2019/107: Credit Supply and Productivity Growth

Francesco Manaresi and Nicola Pierri

2019/106: Pledged Collateral Market's Role in Transmission to Short-Term Market Rates

Manmohan Singh and Rohit Goel

2019/105: Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

Rahul Giri, Saad Quayyum and Rujun Yin

2019/104: Case Studies in Tax Revenue Mobilization in Low-Income Countries

Bernardin Akitoby, Jiro Honda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Keyra Primus and Mouhamadou Sy

2019/103: Strengthening the Monetary Policy Framework in Korea

Kevin Clinton, R. Craig, Douglas Laxton and Hou Wang

2019/102: CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector

Mehmet Gorpe, Giovanni Covi and Christoffer Kok

2019/101: The Motives to Borrow

Antonio Fatas, Atish Ghosh, Ugo Panizza and Andrea Presbitero

2019/100: Discriminatory Pricing of Over-the-Counter Derivatives

Harald Hau, Peter Hoffmann, Sam Langfield and Yannick Timmer

2019/099: Can Contingent Convertibles Help Private Asset Managers Fund Their Acquisition of Non-Performing Loans from Portuguese Banks?

Andre Santos

2019/098: The Optimal Turnover Threshold and Tax Rate for SMEs

Feng Wei and Jean-Francois Wen

2019/096: The Value Added Tax and Growth: Design Matters

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and Atsuyoshi Morozumi

2019/095: Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate

Jean-Marc Natal and Nicolas Stoffels

2019/094: Taming Financial Development to Reduce Crises

Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Quentin Lajaunie