IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2019/148: Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico

Frederic Lambert and Hyunmin Park

2019/147: Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Patrick Blagrave

2019/146: Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa

Paul Mathieu, Marco Pani, Shiyuan Chen and Rodolfo Maino

2019/145: Climate Disaster Risks – Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

Stefan Mittnik, Willi Semmler and Alexander Haider

2019/144: Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries

Ronald James, Jemma Lafeuillee, Mike Xin Li, Gonzalo Salinas and Yevgeniya Savchenko

2019/143: Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

Carlos Caceres, Diego Cerdeiro and Rui Mano

2019/142: Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share

Weicheng Lian

2019/141: The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects

Antonio David, Jaime Guajardo and Juan Yepez

2019/140: Competition and Bank Risk the Role of Securitization and Bank Capital

Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Michiel Van Leuvensteijn and Tianshu Zhao

2019/139: Public Wealth in the United States

Fabien Gonguet and Klaus-Peter Hellwig

2019/138: Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?

Jochen Andritzky and Julian Schumacher

2019/137: Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan

Mariana Colacelli and Gee Hee Hong

2019/136: Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations

Fei Han and Niklas Westelius

2019/135: E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia

Tidiane Kinda

2019/134: The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat

Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva, Yannick Timmer and Petia Topalova

2019/133: The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound

Adalgiso Amendola, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Giovanni Melina

2019/132: The Measurement of External Accounts

Gustavo Adler, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Signe Krogstrup

2019/131: Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Plamen Iossifov and Xuan Fei

2019/130: How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States?

Agustin Velasquez and Svetlana Vtyurina

2019/129: Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Cheikh Gueye, Asithandile Mbelu and Amadou Sy

2019/128: Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Bertrand Gruss, Malhar Nabar and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2019/127: From Basel I to Basel III: Sequencing Implementation in Developing Economies

Caio Ferreira, Nigel Jenkinson and Christopher Wilson

2019/126: Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Ioana Moldovan, Shu-Chun Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2019/125: Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages

Juin-jen Chang, Hsieh-Yu Lin, Nora Traum and Shu-Chun Yang

2019/124: The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

Lisandro Abrego, Maria Amado, Tunc Gursoy, Garth Nicholls and Hector Perez-Saiz

2019/123: Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union

Mirko Abbritti and Sebastian Weber

2019/122: Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind

Tamim Bayoumi and Jelle Barkema

2019/121: Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo

Giovanni Melina, Hoda Selim and Concha Verdugo Yepes

2019/120: U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

Emanuel Kopp, Daniel Leigh, Susanna Mursula and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2019/119: Do Interest Rate Controls Work? Evidence from Kenya

C. Emre Alper, Benedict Clements, Niko Hobdari and Rafel Moyà Porcel

2019/118: Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries and Small States: Do Country Size and Income Level Matter?

Dongyeol Lee and Huan Zhang

2019/117: Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries

Dongyeol Lee

2019/116: Trade Linkages and International Business Cycle Comovement: Evidence from Korean Industry Data

Dongyeol Lee

2019/115: Analyzing the Effects of Financial and Housing Wealth on Consumption using Micro Data

Carlos Caceres

2019/114: Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh

2019/113: Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing

David Amaglobeli, Laura Jaramillo, Pooja Karnane and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2019/112: Informality and Gender Gaps Going Hand in Hand

Vivian Malta, Lisa Kolovich, Angelica Martinez and Marina Tavares

2019/111: Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks

Yu Shi, Robert Townsend and Wu Zhu

2019/110: Government Wage Bill Management and Civil Service Reform in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

A. E. Wayne Mitchell, Ronald James and Ann Marie Wickham

2019/109: FinTech in Financial Inclusion: Machine Learning Applications in Assessing Credit Risk

Majid Bazarbash

2019/108: Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries

Tokhir Mirzoev and Ling Zhu

2019/107: Credit Supply and Productivity Growth

Francesco Manaresi and Nicola Pierri

2019/106: Pledged Collateral Market's Role in Transmission to Short-Term Market Rates

Manmohan Singh and Rohit Goel

2019/105: Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

Rahul Giri, Saad Quayyum and Rujun Yin

2019/104: Case Studies in Tax Revenue Mobilization in Low-Income Countries

Bernardin Akitoby, Jiro Honda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Keyra Primus and Mouhamadou Sy

2019/103: Strengthening the Monetary Policy Framework in Korea

Kevin Clinton, R. Craig, Douglas Laxton and Hou Wang

2019/102: CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector

Mehmet Gorpe, Giovanni Covi and Christoffer Kok

2019/101: The Motives to Borrow

Antonio Fatas, Atish Ghosh, Ugo Panizza and Andrea Presbitero

2019/100: Discriminatory Pricing of Over-the-Counter Derivatives

Harald Hau, Peter Hoffmann, Sam Langfield and Yannick Timmer

2019/099: Can Contingent Convertibles Help Private Asset Managers Fund Their Acquisition of Non-Performing Loans from Portuguese Banks?

Andre Santos

2019/098: The Optimal Turnover Threshold and Tax Rate for SMEs

Feng Wei and Jean-Francois Wen

2019/097: Financial Frictions and Stimulative Effects of Temporary Corporate Tax Cuts

William Gbohoui and Rui Castro

2019/096: The Value Added Tax and Growth: Design Matters

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and Atsuyoshi Morozumi

2019/095: Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate

Jean-Marc Natal and Nicolas Stoffels

2019/094: Taming Financial Development to Reduce Crises

Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Quentin Lajaunie

2019/093: The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates?

Bo Jiang and Tahsin Saadi Sedik

2019/092: Fire Sales in Frozen Markets

Ehsan Ebrahimy

2019/091: Is Technology Widening the Gender Gap? Automation and the Future of Female Employment

Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris and Salma Khalid

2019/090: Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States

Huixin Bi, Wenyi Shen and Shu-Chun Yang

2019/089: Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates

David Coady, Ian Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le and Baoping Shang

2019/088: The Great Divide: Regional Inequality and Fiscal Policy

William Gbohoui, Waikei Lam and Victor Lledo

2019/087: Firm Size, Life Cycle Dynamics and Growth Constraints: Evidence from Mexico

Christian Saborowski and Florian Misch

2019/086: Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer

Torsten Wezel

2019/085: Capital Flows: The Role of Bank and Nonbank Balance Sheets

Yuko Hashimoto and Signe Krogstrup

2019/084: Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide

Ruchir Agarwal and Miles Kimball

2019/083: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis

Wenjie Chen, Mico Mrkaic and Malhar Nabar

2019/082: Global Declining Competition

Federico Diez, Jiayue Fan and Carolina Villegas-Sánchez

2019/081: Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis

Majdeline El Rayess, Avril Halstead, Jason Harris, John Ralyea and Alexander Tieman

2019/080: You Are Suffocating Me! Firm-Level Evidence on Crowding Out

Serhan Cevik

2019/079: The Financial Inclusion Landscape in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Dozen Key Findings

Sarwat Jahan, Jayendu De, Fazurin Jamaludin, Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon and Cormac Sullivan

2019/078: Death and Taxes: Does Taxation Matter for Firm Survival?

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2019/077: Illuminating Economic Growth

Yingyao Hu and Jiaxiong Yao

2019/076: Household Debt, Consumption, and Monetary Policy in Australia

Elena Loukoianova, Yu Ching Wong and Ioana Hussiada

2019/075: Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock

Rudolfs Bems, Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli and Bertrand Gruss

2019/074: The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

2019/073: NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained?

Mary Burfisher, Frederic Lambert and Troy Matheson

2019/072: Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States

Ali Alichi, Ippei Shibata and Kadir Tanyeri

2019/071: Fintech in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking

Pelin Berkmen, Kimberly Beaton, Dmitry Gershenson, Javier Arze del Granado, Kotaro Ishi, Marie Kim, Emanuel Kopp and Marina Rousset

2019/070: Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility

Serhan Cevik

2019/069: Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, Aitor Erce and Akira Sasahara

2019/068: Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries

Kangni Kpodar, Maëlan Le Goff and Raju Singh

2019/067: The Structural Determinants of the Labor Share in Europe

Dilyana Dimova

2019/066: Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database

Zohair Alam, Adrian Alter, Jesse Eiseman, R. Gaston Gelos, Heedon Kang, Machiko Narita, Erlend Nier and Naixi Wang

2019/065: The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update

Luis Cubeddu, Signe Krogstrup, Gustavo Adler, Pau Rabanal, Mai Dao, Swarnali Hannan, Luciana Juvenal, Carolina Osorio-Buitron, Cyril Rebillard, Daniel Garcia-Macia, Callum Jones, Jair Rodriguez, Kyun Suk Chang, Deepali Gautam, Zijiao Wang and Nan Li

2019/064: Self-Employment and Support for the Dutch Pension Reform

Izabela Karpowicz

2019/063: Fundamental and Speculative Demands for Housing

Weicheng Lian

2019/062: Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models

Daniel Gurara, Giovanni Melina and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2019/061: The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply

Hui He, Lei Ning and Dongming Zhu

2019/060: Attaining Selected Sustainable Development Goals in Guatemala: Spending, Provision, and Financing Needs

Esther Perez Ruiz and Mauricio Soto

2019/059: Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures

Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil

2019/058: Liquidity Management under Fixed Exchange Rate with Open Capital Account

Mariam El Hamiani Khatat and Romain Veyrune

2019/057: Two-Sided Market, R&D and Payments System Evolution

Grace Li, James McAndrews and Zhu Wang

2019/056: Unemployment Surges in the EU: The Role of Risk Premium Shocks

Bas Bakker, Marta Korczak and Krzysztof Krogulski

2019/055: More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets

Antonio David, Frederic Lambert and Frederik Toscani

2019/054: Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia

Alessandro Cantelmo, Leo Bonato, Giovanni Melina and Gonzalo Salinas

2019/053: The Russian State’s Size and its Footprint: Have They Increased?

C. Di Bella, Oksana Dynnikova and Slavi Slavov

2019/052: Determinants of Currency Composition of Reserves: a Portfolio Theory Approach with an Application to RMB

Yinqiu Lu and Yilin Wang

2019/051: Fiscal Redistribution and Social Welfare

David Coady, Devin D'Angelo and Brooks Evans

2019/050: China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime

Sonali Das

2019/049: Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Francesca Caselli and Julien Reynaud