IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2013/203: Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

John Bluedorn, Jörg Decressin and Marco Terrones

2013/202: The Path to Higher Growth: Does Revamping Japan’s Dual Labor Market Matter?

Chie Aoyagi and Giovanni Ganelli

2013/201: Africa's Got Work to Do: Employment Prospects in the New Century

Louise Fox, Cleary Haines, Jorge Huerta Munoz and Alun Thomas

2013/200: Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models

Roger Farmer and Vadim Khramov

2013/199: Addressing Interconnectedness: Concepts and Prudential Tools

Nicolas Arregui, Mohamed Norat, Antonio Pancorbo, Jodi Scarlata, Eija Holttinen, Fabiana Melo, Jay Surti, Christopher Wilson, Rodolfo Wehrhahn and Mamoru Yanase

2013/198: The Euro Area Crisis: Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?

Davide Furceri and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2013/197: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach

Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael Portillo and Jan Vlcek

2013/196: Is Labor Market Mismatch a Big Deal in Japan?

Ippei Shibata

2013/195: Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation and the Role of Fiscal Policy: What Do the Data Say?

Jaejoon Woo, Elva Bova, Tidiane Kinda and Yuanyan Zhang

2013/194: Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis

Yan Sun, Frigyes Heinz and Giang Ho

2013/193: Procyclical Behavior of Institutional Investors During the Recent Financial Crisis: Causes, Impacts, and Challenges

Michael Papaioannou, Joonkyu Park, Jukka Pihlman and Han Hoorn

2013/192: Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?

Michal Andrle, Jan Bruha and Serhat Solmaz

2013/191: Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Patrick Imam

2013/190: Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Price Risk

Shaun Roache and Marina Rousset

2013/189: Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

Tamim Bayoumi and Franziska Ohnsorge

2013/188: Resource Dependence and Fiscal Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa

Alun Thomas and Juan Trevino

2013/187: Waste Not, Want Not: The Efficiency of Health Expenditure in Emerging and Developing Economies

Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli

2013/186: Collateral and Monetary Policy

Manmohan Singh

2013/185: Two Sides of the Same Coin? Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China

Il Lee, Murtaza Syed and Xin Wang

2013/184: Cooperative and Islamic Banks: What can they Learn from Each Other?

Saeed Al-Muharrami and Daniel Hardy

2013/183: Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere

John Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Jaime Guajardo and Petia Topalova

2013/182: Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment: A General Framework

Ran Bi, Haonan Qu and James Roaf

2013/181: The Driving Force behind the Boom and Bust in Construction in Europe

Yan Sun, Pritha Mitra and Alejandro Simone

2013/180: Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Rabah Arezki, Kaddour Hadri, Prakash Loungani and Yao Rao

2013/179: Dismal Employment Growth in EU Countries: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet Repair and Dual Labor Markets

Bas Bakker and Li Zeng

2013/178: Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing

Li Ong and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

2013/177: HEAT! A Bank Health Assessment Tool

Li Ong, Phakawa Jeasakul and Sarah Kwoh

2013/176: Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

Era Dabla-Norris, Alun Thomas, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu and Yingyuan Chen

2013/175: Financial Interconnectedness and Financial Sector Reforms in the Caribbean

Sumiko Ogawa, Joonkyu Park, Diva Singh and Nita Thacker

2013/174: Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt

Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez

2013/173: Tax Administration Reform in the Francophone Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa

Patrick Fossat and Michel Bua

2013/172: Bank Resolution Costs, Depositor Preference, and Asset Encumbrance

Daniel Hardy

2013/171: What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?

Yi Wu

2013/170: Pressure or Prudence? Tales of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment

Salvatore Dell'Erba, Todd Mattina and Agustin Roitman

2013/169: The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics: Many Paths to the Same Endpoint

Joong Kang and Jay Shambaugh

2013/168: Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide

Nicolas Blancher, Srobona Mitra, Hanan Morsy, Akira Otani, Tiago Severo and Laura Valderrama

2013/167: Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy: A Cookbook

Nicolas Arregui, Jaromir Benes, Ivo Krznar, Srobona Mitra and Andre Santos

2013/166: The Macroprudential Framework: Policy Responsiveness and Institutional Arrangements

Cheng Lim, Ivo Krznar, Fabian Lipinsky, Akira Otani and Xiaoyong Wu

2013/165: Institutional Arrangements for Macroprudential Policy in Asia

Cheng Lim, Rishi Ramchand, Helen Wagner and Xiaoyong Wu

2013/164: Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments

Balázs Csontó and Iryna Ivaschenko

2013/163: Tax Coordination, Tax Competition, and Revenue Mobilization in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Mario Mansour and Grégoire Rota Graziosi

2013/162: Can a Government Enhance Long-Run Growth by Changing the Composition of Public Expenditure?

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and Atsuyoshi Morozumi

2013/161: Financial Depth in the WAEMU: Benchmarking Against Frontier SSA Countries

Calixte Ahokpossi, Kareem Ismail, Sudipto Karmakar and Mesmin Koulet-Vickot

2013/160: Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region

Sami Ben Naceur and Magda Kandil

2013/159: Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Salvatore Dell'Erba and Sergio Sola

2013/158: Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets

Deniz Igan, Alain Kabundi, Francisco Nadal De Simone and Natalia Tamirisa

2013/157: Toward A Sustainable and Inclusive Consolidation in Lithuania: Past Experience and What is Needed Going Forward

Nan Geng

2013/156: Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks

Luis Brandão-Marques, R. Gaston Gelos and Natalia Melgar

2013/155: Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia

Rina Bhattacharya

2013/154: Macro-Financial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery

Manuela Goretti and Marcos Souto

2013/153: Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries

Christian Ebeke and Dilan Ölcer

2013/152: The Elusive Quest for Inclusive Growth: Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Asia

Ravi Balakrishnan, Chad Steinberg and Murtaza Syed

2013/151: The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation

Laurence Ball, Davide Furceri, Daniel Leigh and Prakash Loungani

2013/150: How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports?

Youssouf Kiendrebeogo

2013/149: The Growth and Stabilization Properties of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia

Sohrab Rafiq

2013/148: Bank Funding in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe Post Lehman: A “New Normal”?

Gregorio Impavido, Heinz Rudolph and Luigi Ruggerone

2013/147: Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies: An Application to Angola

Christine Richmond, Irene Yackovlev and Susan Yang

2013/146: Does Public-Sector Employment Fully Crowd Out Private-Sector Employment?

Alberto Behar and Junghwan Mok

2013/145: Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic

Christian Johnson

2013/144: Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon

Issouf Samaké, Priscilla Muthoora and Bruno Versailles

2013/143: Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States

Giovanni Dell'ariccia, Luc Laeven and Gustavo Suarez

2013/142: Risk Exposures and Financial Spillovers in Tranquil and Crisis Times: Bank-Level Evidence

Hélène Poirson and Jochen M. Schmittmann

2013/141: Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships

Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa

2013/140: The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications

Ron Alquist and Olivier Coibion

2013/139: Inclusive Growth: An Application of the Social Opportunity Function to Selected African Countries

Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Huancheng Du and Maxwell Opoku-Afari

2013/138: The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction: Applications to Papua New Guinea

Suman Basu, Jan Gottschalk, Werner Schule, Nikhil Vellodi and Susan Yang

2013/137: Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Yasser Abdih and Leandro Medina

2013/136: The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback

Marcello Estevão and Issouf Samaké

2013/135: Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants

Rahul Anand, Saurabh Mishra and Shanaka Peiris

2013/134: Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Fabio Comelli

2013/133: Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of Shrinking Resource Envelope

Aqib Aslam, Enrico Berkes, Martin Fukac, Jeta Menkulasi and Axel Schimmelpfennig

2013/132: The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?

John Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Jaime Guajardo and Nkunde Mwase

2013/131: Fixing the Fixings: What Road to a More Representative Money Market Benchmark?

V. Brousseau, Alexandre Chailloux and Alain Durré

2013/130: The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?

Adolfo Barajas, Ralph Chami and Seyed Reza Yousefi

2013/129: Taxing Immovable Property Revenue Potential and Implementation Challenges

John Norregaard

2013/128: The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India

Rahul Anand, David Coady, Adil Mohommad, Vimal Thakoor and James Walsh

2013/127: Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India

Sampawende Tapsoba

2013/126: Competition Policy for Modern Banks

Lev Ratnovski

2013/125: That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization

Xavier Debrun and Tidiane Kinda

2013/124: The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Troy Matheson and Emil Stavrev

2013/123: Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?

Patrizia Tumbarello, Ezequiel Cabezon and Yiqun Wu

2013/122: Foreign Investors Under Stress: Evidence from India

Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah and Nirvikar Singh

2013/121: Financial Structures and Economic Outcomes: An Empirical Analysis

Tom Gole and Tao Sun

2013/120: Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies

Rudrani Bhattacharya and Ila Patnaik

2013/119: Emerging Economy Business Cycles: Financial Integration and Terms of Trade Shocks

Rudrani Bhattacharya, Ila Patnaik and Madhavi Pundit

2013/118: Heterogeneous Bank Lending Responses to Monetary Policy: New Evidence from a Real-time Identification

John Bluedorn, Christopher Bowdler and Christoffer Koch

2013/117: Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU

Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Antonio Lemus and Mico Mrkaic

2013/116: Inclusive Growth and the Incidence of Fiscal Policy in Mauritius: Much Progress, But More Could be Done

Antonio David and Martin Petri

2013/115: Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress

Ivailo Arsov, Elie Canetti, Laura Kodres and Srobona Mitra

2013/114: World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy

Luis Catão and Roberto Chang

2013/113: External Liabilities and Crises

Luis Catão and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

2013/112: Energy Subsidies and Energy Consumption: A Cross-Country Analysis

Joshua Charap, Arthur Ribeiro da Silva and Pedro Rodriguez

2013/111: The Anatomy of the VAT

Michael Keen

2013/110: The Welfare Implications of Services Liberalization in a Developing Country: Evidence from Tunisia

Nizar Jouini and Nooman Rebei

2013/109: Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

Sebastian Sosa, Evridiki Tsounta and Marie Kim

2013/108: Export Quality in Developing Countries

Christian Henn, Chris Papageorgiou and Nikola Spatafora

2013/107: Capital Account Policies in Chile Macro-financial considerations along the path to liberalization

Yan Carrière-Swallow and Pablo Garcia-Silva

2013/106: Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Olga Sulla

2013/105: What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables

Michal Andrle

2013/104: The Pacific Speed of Growth: How Fast Can It Be and What Determines It?

Yongzheng Yang, Hong Chen, Shiu raj Singh and Baljeet Singh