 China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?Wojciech Maliszewski and Longmei Zhang No 2015/113, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund Abstract: The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status. Keywords: WP; TFP growth; economic miracle; growth story; potential output gap; output gap measure; China; potential growth; total factor productivity; output gap; output gap estimate; output gap in China; production function approach; inflation dynamics; Potential output; Productivity; Capacity utilization; Global; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/113 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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