Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Leandro Medina ()

No 2015/110, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.

Keywords: WP; debt; expenditure; IMF staff calculation; Bangladesh; commodity prices; contingent liabilities; exchange rate; fiscal risks; sovereign debt; pensions; guarantees; Bangladesh authorities; commodity price; debt record; debt disbursement; vis-à-vis budget figure; basic salary; poverty line; collection data; Bangladesh face; Bangladesh's government; shocks to GDP growth; debt structure; Pension spending; Macroeconomic risks; South Asia; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2015-05-19
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh (2018)
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