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Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Leandro Medina ()

Asian Development Review, 2018, vol. 35, issue 1, 196-222

Abstract: This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to gross domestic product growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, including those related to the pension system, issuance of guarantees, state-owned commercial banks, and external borrowing and debt management strategies. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and the exchange rate. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and limited institutional capacity.

Keywords: Bangladesh; commodity prices; contingent liabilities; exchange rate; fiscal risks; guarantees; pensions; sovereign debt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H63 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/adev_a_00111 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh (2015) Downloads
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