IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2021/280: Global Climate Change Mitigation, Fossil-Fuel Driven Development, and the Role of Financial and Technology Transfers: A Simple Framework

Johannes Wiegand

2021/279: State-Level Health and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India

Pragyan Deb and TengTeng Xu

2021/278: Corporate Sector Resilience in India in the Wake of the COVID-19 Shock

Lucyna Gornicka, Sumiko Ogawa and TengTeng Xu

2021/277: The Heavy Economic Toll of Gender-based Violence: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Rasmané Ouedraogo and David Stenzel

2021/276: Assessing Banking and Currency Crisis Risk in Small States: An application to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Carlo Pizzinelli, Kotaro Ishi and Tariq Khan

2021/275: Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts

Yan Carrière-Swallow and José Marzluf

2021/274: Monetary Policy and COVID-19

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski

2021/273: Tracing Productivity Growth Channels in the UK

Daniel Garcia-Macia and Julia Korosteleva

2021/272: Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence

William Gbohoui

2021/271: The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Kangni Kpodar and Boya Liu

2021/270: Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups

Zidong An, John Bluedorn and Gabriele Ciminelli

2021/269: Gender Budgeting in G20 Countries

Virginia Alonso-Albarran, Teresa Curristine, Gemma Preston, Alberto Soler, Nino Tchelishvili and Sureni Weerathunga

2021/268: Establishing a Foreign Exchange Futures Market in China

Zhongxia Jin, Yue Zhao and Haobin Wang

2021/267: How Does the Repo Market Behave Under Stress? Evidence From the COVID-19 Crisis

Anne-Caroline Hüser, Caterina Lepore and Luitgard Veraart

2021/266: Epidemics, Gender, and Human Capital in Developing Countries

Stefania Fabrizio, Diego Gomes, Carine Meyimdjui and Marina Tavares

2021/265: The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility

Sharjil Haque and Richard Varghese

2021/264: Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19

Andrea Deghi, Junghwan Mok and Tomohiro Tsuruga

2021/263: Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach

Chris Redl and Sandile Hlatshwayo

2021/262: The Effects of Fiscal Measures During COVID-19

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, Nour Tawk and Naihan Yang

2021/261: Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risk in Colombia

Can Sever and Manuel Perez-Archila

2021/260: Barriers to Trade in Financial and Insurance Services: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Jiri Podpiera

2021/259: Monitoring the Climate Impact of Fiscal Policy - Lessons from Tracking the COVID-19 Response

Khaled Eltokhy, Katja Funke, Guohua Huang, Yujin Kim and Genet Zinabou

2021/258: Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Natalia Kuosmanen and Mika Pajarinen

2021/257: Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis

Romain Bouis

2021/256: An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

Philippe Karam, Mikhail Pranovich and Jan Vlcek

2021/255: A Balance-Sheet Analysis of the Dutch Economy

Ruo Chen

2021/254: Safe Asset Demand, Global Capital Flows and Wealth Concentration

Taehoon Kim

2021/253: Analyzing Capital Flow Drivers Using the ‘At-Risk’ Framework: South Africa’s Case

Rohit Goel and Ken Miyajima

2021/252: Measuring the Redistributive Capacity of Tax Policies

Charles Vellutini and Juan Carlos Benitez

2021/251: Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

Seungho Jung, Jongmin Lee and Seohyun Lee

2021/250: Pareto-Improving Minimum Corporate Taxation

Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2021/249: Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Maximilien Queyranne, Daniel Baksa, Vassili Bazinas and Azhin Abdulkarim

2021/248: The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jiménez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan Ostry and Nour Tawk

2021/247: Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jiménez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan Ostry and Nour Tawk

2021/246: A Comprehensive Climate Mitigation Strategy for Mexico

Simon Black, Koralai Kirabaeva, Ian Parry, Mehdi Raissi and Karlygash Zhunussova

2021/245: Natural Resource Taxation in Mexico: Some Considerations

Alpa Shah

2021/244: Social Spending in Mexico: Needs, Priorities and Reforms

Swarnali Hannan, Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and David Bartolini

2021/243: Energy Transition Metals

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2021/242: The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States

Shekhar Aiyar and Mai Dao

2021/241: Scaling up Climate Mitigation Policy in Germany

Simon Black, Ruo Chen, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian Parry and Dinar Prihardini

2021/240: Brazil: Tax Expenditure Rationalization Within Broader Tax Reform

Maria Coelho

2021/239: Border Carbon Adjustments: Rationale, Design and Impact

Michael Keen, Ian Parry and James Roaf

2021/238: Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security?

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti

2021/237: Opening Up: Capital Flows and Financial Sector Dynamics in Low-Income Developing Countries

Sebastian Horn and Futoshi Narita

2021/236: Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Ian Parry, Simon Black and Nate Vernon-Lin

2021/235: COVID-19 and the Informality-driven Recovery: The Case of Colombia's Labor Market

Jorge Alvarez and Carlo Pizzinelli

2021/234: Growth at Risk from Natural Disasters

Tamim Bayoumi, Saad Quayyum and Sibabrata Das

2021/233: On the Benefits of Repaying

Francesca Caselli, Matilde Faralli, Paolo Manasse and Ugo Panizza

2021/232: Assessing Chile's Pension System: Challenges and Reform Options

Samuel Pienknagura and Christopher Evans

2021/231: Enhancing Tax Compliance in the Dominican Republic Through Risk-based VAT Invoice Management

Cristian Alonso, Ledys Feliz, Patricia Gil and Miguel Pecho

2021/230: Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments

Alejandro Guerson

2021/229: Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring?

Marialuz Moreno Badia, Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez and Yuan Xiang

2021/228: Do Banks Price Environmental Transition Risks? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in a Chinese Province

Bihong Huang, Maria Teresa Punzi and Yu Wu

2021/227: When Do Politicians Appeal Broadly? The Economic Consequences of Electoral Rules in Brazil

Moya Chin

2021/226: A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

Allan Dizioli, Daniel Greenwood and Aneta Radzikowski

2021/225: Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

Serkan Arslanalp, Robin Koepke and Jasper Verschuur

2021/224: Diversion of Tourism Flows in the Asia & Pacific Region: Lessons for COVID-19 Recovery

Vybhavi Balasundharam and Robin Koepke

2021/223: A Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategy for The Netherlands

Nicoletta Batini, Simon Black, Oana Luca and Ian Parry

2021/222: Loose Financial Conditions, Rising Leverage, and Risks to Macro-Financial Stability

Adolfo Barajas, Woon Gyu Choi, Ken Gan, Pierre Guérin, Samuel Mann, Manchun Wang and Yizhi Xu

2021/221: Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean

Dmitry Gershenson, Frederic Lambert, Luis Herrera, Grey Ramos, Marina Rousset and José Torres

2021/220: The Agricultural Exodus in the Philippines: Are Wage Differentials Driving the Process?

Eugenio Cerutti and Yiliang Li

2021/219: Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets

Zhongxia Zhang

2021/218: Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock

Vivian Parlak, Gonzalo Salinas and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2021/217: Climate Change in South Asia: Further Need for Mitigation and Adaptation

Ruchir Agarwal, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Patrick Blagrave, Eugenio Cerutti, Ragnar Gudmundsson and Racha Mousa

2021/216: An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic and Allan Timmermann

2021/215: Intergenerational Social Mobility in Africa Since 1920

Rasmané Ouedraogo and Nicolas Syrichas

2021/214: Does IT Help? Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship

Toni Ahnert, Sebastian Doerr, Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer

2021/213: The Impact of Environmental Policy on Innovation in Clean Technologies

Johannes Eugster

2021/212: Global Corporate Stress Tests—Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses

Thierry Tressel and Xiaodan Ding

2021/211: Resolving Bank Failures and Institutions: Is there a Link? Some Empirical Evidence

Marlon Rawlins and Luisa Zanforlin

2021/210: Evolution of Bilateral Swap Lines

Michael Perks, Yudong Rao, Jongsoon Shin and Kiichi Tokuoka

2021/209: Unintended Consequences of U. S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Dutch Disease and Capital Flow Measures in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Juan Yepez

2021/208: Endogenous Growth, Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Inflation

Mirko Abbritti, Agostino Consolo and Sebastian Weber

2021/207: Revisiting Carbon Leakage

Florian Misch and Philippe Wingender

2021/206: Real Estate in the Netherlands: A Taxonomy of Risks and Policy Challenges

André Geis and Oana Luca

2021/205: Mask Mandates Save Lives

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Rui Mano

2021/204: Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Sonali Das, Giacomo Magistretti, Evgenia Pugacheva and Philippe Wingender

2021/203: After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

Philip Barrett, Sonali Das, Giacomo Magistretti, Evgenia Pugacheva and Philippe Wingender

2021/202: A Diversification Strategy for South Asia

Weicheng Lian, Fei Liu, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka and Biying Zhu

2021/201: Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy

Valentina Bonifacio, Luis Brandão-Marques, Balazs Csonto, Chiara Fratto, Philipp Engler, Davide Furceri, Deniz Igan, Rui Mano, Machiko Narita, Murad Omoev, Gurnain Pasricha and Hélène Poirson

2021/200: What Can We Learn from Financial Stability Reports?

Fabio Comelli and Sumiko Ogawa

2021/199: No Easy Solution: A Smorgasbord of Factors Drive Remittance Costs

Tito Nícias da Silva Filho

2021/198: What Shapes Current Account Adjustment During Recessions?

Christina Kolerus

2021/197: Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?

Marcin Pietrzak

2021/196: Numerical Fiscal Rules for Economic Unions: the Role of Sovereign Spreads

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2021/195: Mitigating Climate Change: Growth-Friendly Policies to Achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2050

Florence Jaumotte, Weifeng Liu and Warwick McKibbin

2021/194: How Green are Green Debt Issuers?

Jochen M. Schmittmann and Han Teng Chua

2021/193: How do Climate Shocks Affect the Impact of FDI, ODA and Remittances on Economic Growth?

Alassane Drabo

2021/192: A Sentiment-Enhanced Corruption Perception Index

Yongquan Cao, Yingjie Fan, Sandile Hlatshwayo, Monica Petrescu and Zaijin Zhan

2021/191: Pooling Fiscal Risk in the ECCU: Quantifying Savings of a Regional Fund for Stabilization and Investment

Alejandro Guerson

2021/190: A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

Daniel Baksa, Ales Bulir and Roberto Cardarelli

2021/189: Health Care Reform in Greece: Progress and Reform Priorities

Niki Kalavrezou and Hui Jin

2021/188: Reforming the Greek Pension System

Alvar Kangur, Niki Kalavrezou and Daehaeng Kim

2021/187: For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation

Andrew Berg, Lahcen Bounader, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Kenji Moriyama, Ryota Nakatani and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2021/186: Defying the Odds: Remittances During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kangni Kpodar, Montfort Mlachila, Saad Quayyum and Gammadigbe Vigninou

2021/185: U.S. Dollar Currency Premium in Corporate Bonds

John Caramichael, Gita Gopinath and Gordon Liao

2021/184: Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission

Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Raphael Lee and Marina Tavares

2021/183: Managing Fiscal Risks from National Airlines in Pacific Island Countries

Vybhavi Balasundharam, Leni Hunter, Iulai Lavea and Paul Seeds

2021/182: Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing

Stephen Cecchetti, Machiko Narita, Umang Rawat and Ratna Sahay

2021/181: Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features

Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and Swarnali Hannan