Energy Transition Metals

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

No 2021/243, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Keywords: Conditional forecasts; structural vector autoregressions; structual scenario analysis; energy transition; metals; fossil fuels; prices; climate change.; estimate supply elasticity; metals production; aggregate commodity demand shock; price risk; Metals; Metal prices; Copper; Supply elasticity; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2021-10-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Working Paper: Energy Transition Metals (2021)
Working Paper: Energy Transition Metals (2021)
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