Energy Transition Metals

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks with an ``anchor'' variable, estimate supply elasticities, and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total production value of these four metals alone would rise more than four-fold to USD 13 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the estimated total value of crude oil production. These metals could potentially become as important to the global economy as crude oil.

Keywords: Conditional forecasts; structural vector autoregression; structural scenario analysis; energy transition; metals; fossil fuels; prices; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E37 L72 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-10-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env, nep-mac and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Energy Transition Metals (2021)
Working Paper: Energy Transition Metals (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:110364

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