A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

Allan Dizioli, Daniel Greenwood and Aneta Radzikowski

No 2021/226, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology modelling; vaccines impact; virus variants and testing; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination data; Google mobility; virus variant; vaccination assumption; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Aging; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2021-08-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-for and nep-rmg
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/226

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