IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2015/269: How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy: Nowcasting an Emerging Market

Serhat Solmaz and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

2015/268: Exiting From Fragility in sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Institutions

Corinne Delechat, Ejona Fuli, Dafina Glaser, Gustavo Ramirez and Rui Xu

2015/267: Impact of the New Financial Services Law in Bolivia on Financial Stability and Inclusion

Dyna Heng

2015/266: Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in Bolivia

Alejandro Guerson

2015/265: Explaining Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Bolivia

Jose P Mauricio Vargas and Santiago Garriga

2015/264: Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India

Girish Bahal, Mehdi Raissi and Volodymyr Tulin

2015/263: Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors

Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda

2015/262: Fiscal Consolidation During Times of High Unemployment: The Role of Productivity Gains and Wage Restraint

Ruy Lama and Juan Medina

2015/261: The Whole Elephant: A Proposal for Integrating Cash, Accrual, and Sustainability-Gap Accounts

Timothy Irwin

2015/260: Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Dominican Republic

Francesco Grigoli and Jose Manuel Mota Aquino

2015/259: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

2015/258: Taylor Visits Africa

Carlos Goncalves

2015/257: Debt Maturity: Does It Matter for Fiscal Space?

Jun Kim

2015/256: If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows

Swarnali Hannan

2015/255: Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?

Serkan Arslanalp and Yin Liao

2015/254: The Nordic Labor Market and Migration

Giang Ho and Kazuko Shirono

2015/253: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Ali Alichi, Olivier Bizimana, Silvia Domit, Emilio Fernández Corugedo, Douglas Laxton, Kadir Tanyeri, Hou Wang and Fan Zhang

2015/252: Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Swarnali Hannan, Maximiliano Appendino and Michele Ruta

2015/251: Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?

Benjamin Beckers and Samya Beidas-Strom

2015/250: The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies Revisited: Evidence for Developing Countries

David Coady, Valentina Flamini and Louis Sears

2015/249: Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking

Natalya Martynova, Lev Ratnovski and Razvan Vlahu

2015/248: How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?

Tigran Poghosyan

2015/247: Resolution Frameworks for Islamic Banks

Elsie Addo Awadzi, Carine Chartouni and Mario Tamez

2015/246: Recognizing the Bias: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy

Nina Budina, Borja Gracia, Xingwei Hu and Sergejs Saksonovs

2015/245: Informality in Paraguay: Macro-Micro Evidence and Policy Implications

Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2015/244: Functional Income Distribution and Its Role in Explaining Inequality

Maura Francese and Carlos Mulas-Granados

2015/243: Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality

Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani

2015/242: End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile

Luc Eyraud

2015/241: Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia

Knarik Ayvazyan and Teresa Daban Sanchez

2015/240: External Devaluations: Are Small States Different?

Sebastian Acevedo, Aliona Cebotari, Kevin Greenidge and Geoffrey Keim

2015/239: Monetary Transmission: Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different?

Ales Bulir and Jan Vlcek

2015/238: Defining the Government’s Debt and Deficit

Timothy Irwin

2015/237: Natural Resource Booms in the Modern Era: Is the curse still alive?

Andrew Warner

2015/236: Public Investment in a Developing Country Facing Resource Depletion

Adrian Alter, Matteo Ghilardi and Dalia Hakura

2015/235: Financial Inclusion and Development in the CEMAC

Adrian Alter and Boriana Yontcheva

2015/234: Monetary Operations and Islamic Banking in the GCC: Challenges and Options

Ritu Basu, Ananthakrishnan Prasad and Sergio Rodriguez

2015/233: Steady as She Goes—Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts”

Helge Berger, Thomas Dowling, Sergi Lanau, Mico Mrkaic, Pau Rabanal and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

2015/232: The Evolving Functions and Organization of Finance Ministries

Richard Allen, Yasemin Hurcan, Peter Murphy, Maximilien Queyranne and Sami Yläoutinen

2015/231: Monetary Policy Transmission and Financial Stability in a LIC: The Case of Bangladesh

Sohrab Rafiq

2015/230: Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Olivier Blanchard, Eugenio Cerutti and Lawrence Summers

2015/229: Employment and the Great Recession: The Role of Real Wages

Bas Bakker

2015/228: Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

Christian Ebeke and Armand Fouejieu

2015/227: Macrofinancial Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

2015/226: Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan Ostry, Atish Ghosh and Marcos Chamon

2015/225: Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism

Serhan Cevik and John Ricco

2015/224: Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound

Ruchir Agarwal and Miles Kimball

2015/223: Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers?

Damiano Sandri

2015/222: Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market: Lessons from the “Flash Rally” of October 15, 2014

Antoine Bouveret, Peter Breuer, Yingyuan Chen, David Jones and Tsuyoshi Sasaki

2015/221: Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Derek Anderson, Jorge Canales Kriljenko, Paulo Drummond, Pedro Espaillat and Dirk Muir

2015/220: A Financial Conditions Index for Greece

Jonathan Manning and Maral Shamloo

2015/219: Emerging Powers and Global Governance: Whither the IMF?

Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur

2015/218: Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?

Anton Korinek and Damiano Sandri

2015/217: Optimal Bank Recovery

C. Goodhart and Miguel Segoviano

2015/216: Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Economies

Julian Chow

2015/215: Big Players Out of Synch: Spillovers Implications of US and Euro Area Shocks

Carolina Osorio-Buitron and Esteban Vesperoni

2015/214: Estimating VAT Pass Through

Dora Benedek, Ruud de Mooij and Philippe Wingender

2015/213: Domestic Market Integration and the Law of One Price in Brazil

Carlos Góes and Troy Matheson

2015/212: Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Fei Han

2015/211: The Impact of Global Liquidity on Financial Landscapes and Risks in the ASEAN-5 Countries

Tao Sun

2015/210: How Does Bank Competition Affect Solvency, Liquidity and Credit Risk? Evidence from the MENA Countries

Raja Almarzoqi, Sami Ben Naceur and Alessandro Scopelliti

2015/209: News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

Rabah Arezki, Valerie Ramey and Liugang Sheng

2015/208: Getting the Dog to Bark: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector

Timothy Irwin

2015/207: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization

Nasha Ananchotikul and Dulani Seneviratne

2015/206: Financial Inclusion: Zooming in on Latin America

Era Dabla-Norris, Yixi Deng, Anna Ivanova, Izabela Karpowicz, Filiz Unsal, Eva VanLeemput and Joyce Wong

2015/205: What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

Rahul Anand, Eswar Prasad and Boyang Zhang

15/204: Depreciations without Exports?: Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Swarnali Hannan, Maximiliano Appendino and Michèle Ruta

2015/204: Reaping the Benefits from Global Value Chains

Kevin Cheng, Sidra Rehman, Dulani Seneviratne and Shiny Zhang

2015/203: How to De-Dollarize Financial Systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

Sami Ben Naceur, Amr Hosny and Gregory Hadjian

2015/202: Managing the Fed’s Liftoff and Transmission of Monetary Policy

Manmohan Singh

2015/201: Building a Better Union: Incentivizing Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Angana Banerji, Bergljot Barkbu, James John, Tidiane Kinda, Sergejs Saksonovs, Hanni Schoelermann and Tao Wu

2015/200: “But we are different!”: 12 Common Weaknesses in Banking Laws, and What to Do About Them

Wouter Bossu and Dawn Chew

2015/199: Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates

Rudolfs Bems and Robert Johnson

2015/198: Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets

Deniz Igan and Marcelo Pinheiro

2015/197: Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran and Mehdi Raissi

2015/196: Aid and Growth at the Regional Level

Axel Dreher and Steffen Lohmann

2015/195: A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Janet Stotsky and Qianqian Zhang

2015/194: Normalization of Global Financial Conditions: The Implications for Brazil

Troy Matheson

2015/193: Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems

Deniz Igan and Zhibo Tan

2015/192: Innovation, Deregulation, and the Life Cycle of a Financial Service Industry

Fumiko Hayashi, Grace Li and Zhu Wang

2015/191: Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council

Alberto Behar

2015/190: Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development

Daniela Marchettini and Rodolfo Maino

2015/189: On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Anh Nguyen, Jemma Dridi, Filiz Unsal and Oral Williams

2015/188: Trends in Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from a New Database of the Coverage of Fiscal Reporting

Rachel Wang, Timothy Irwin and Lewis Murara

2015/187: Exports in a Tariff-Free Environment: What Structural Reforms Matter? Evidence from the European Union Single Market

Jesmin Rahman, Ara Stepanyan, Jessie Yang and Li Zeng

2015/186: Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan: Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing

Serkan Arslanalp and Dennis Botman

2015/185: Sub-Saharan Employment Developments: The Important Role of Household Enterprises with an Application to Rwanda

Alun Thomas

2015/184: Integrated Ownership and Control in the GCC Corporate Sector

Andre Santos

2015/183: Production Offshoring and Investment by Japanese Firms

Joong Kang and Shi Piao

2015/182: Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom

Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber

2015/181: Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages

Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake

2015/180: Filling the Gap: Infrastructure Investment in Brazil

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos Góes and Izabela Karpowicz

2015/179: Collateral Damage: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

Pablo Druck, Nicolas Magud and Rodrigo Mariscal

2015/178: Estimation of Drivers of Public Education Expenditure: Baumol’s Effect Revisited

Manabu Nose

2015/177: Does A Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation

Kangni Kpodar and Patrick Imam

2015/176: Deflation and Public Finances: Evidence from the Historical Records

Nicolas End, Sampawende Tapsoba, G. Terrier and Renaud Duplay

2015/175: Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies

Sanjeev Gupta, Estelle Liu and Carlos Mulas-Granados

2015/174: Institutions and Growth: a GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach

Carlos Góes

2015/173: What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?

Raja Almarzoqi, Sami Ben Naceur and Akshay Kotak

2015/172: Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in the Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition

Zsoka Koczan

2015/171: Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)

Bill Battaile and Saurabh Mishra