Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty: An Invariant Set Approach

Rossen Rozenov

No 2017/057, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.

Keywords: WP; potential GDP; debt ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2017-03-13
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