IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2014/039: Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt

Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda

2014/038: Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Phakawa Jeasakul, Cheng Lim and Erik Lundback

2014/037: Asia’s Stock Markets: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?

Fabian Lipinsky and Li Ong

2014/036: Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index

Alexander Massara and André Mialou

2014/035: Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns

Oumar Diallo and Sampawende Tapsoba

2014/034: Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Andrea Pescatori, Damiano Sandri and John Simon

2014/033: Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies

Juan Medina and Claudia Soto

2014/032: Judicial System Reform in Italy - A Key to Growth

Gianluca Esposito, Sergi Lanau and Sebastiaan Pompe

2014/031: Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani and Natalia Tamirisa

2014/030: Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows

Juan Medina and Jorge Roldos

2014/029: Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?

Christian Hubert Ebeke and Yinqiu Lu

2014/028: The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

Oya Celasun, C. Di Bella, Tim Mahedy and Chris Papageorgiou

2014/027: Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

Serkan Arslanalp and Tigran Poghosyan

2014/026: Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe

Mai Dao, Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani

2014/025: What is Shadow Banking?

Stijn Claessens and Lev Ratnovski

2014/024: Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Laurence Ball, Joao Jalles and Prakash Loungani

2014/023: Aggregate Stability and Balanced-Budget Rules

Matteo Ghilardi and Raffaele Rossi

2014/022: Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia

Longmei Zhang and Edda Zoli

2014/021: Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!

Iana Paliova and Tonny Lybek

2014/020: Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?

Eva Jenkner and Zhongjin Lu

2014/019: A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies

Francesco Grigoli

2014/018: Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2014/017: Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers

Frigyes Heinz and Yan Sun

2014/016: Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans

Dmitriy Kovtun, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Zuzana Murgasova, Dustin Smith and Suchanan Tambunlertchai

2014/015: The Quest for Non-Resource-Based FDI: Do Taxes Matter?

Tidiane Kinda

2014/014: Financial Soundness Indicators and the Characteristics of Financial Cycles

Natasha Che and Yoko Shinagawa

2014/013: Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Giulia Bettin, Andrea Presbitero and Nikola Spatafora

2014/012: Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure

Jennifer Blouin, Harry Huizinga, Luc Laeven and Gaëtan Nicodème

2014/011: Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment

Atish Ghosh, Jonathan Ostry and Mahvash Qureshi

2014/010: Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Luca Errico, Artak Harutyunyan, Elena Loukoianova, Richard Walton, Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Hanan AbuShanab and Hyun Song Shin

2014/009: Global Liquidity through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

Kyuil Chung, Jong-Kun Lee, Elena Loukoianova, Hail Park and Hyun Song Shin

2014/008: Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions

Christian Saborowski, Sarah Sanya, Hans Weisfeld and Juan Yepez

2014/007: Reforming Tax Expenditures in Italy: What, Why, and How?

Justin Tyson

2014/006: Reforming Capital Taxation in Italy

Luc Eyraud

2014/005: Resource Blessing, Revenue Curse? Domestic Revenue Effort in Resource-Rich Countries

Ernesto Crivelli and Sanjeev Gupta

2014/004: Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China

Yuanyan Zhang and Steven Barnett

2014/003: Economic Growth and Government Spending in Saudi Arabia: an Empirical Investigation

Saad Alshahrani and Ali Al-Sadiq

2014/002: Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Rahul Anand, Kevin Cheng, Sidra Rehman and Longmei Zhang

2014/001: Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?

Marialuz Moreno Badia and Alex Segura-Ubiergo

2013/273: IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term

Christian Mumssen, Yasemin Bal Gündüz, Christian Ebeke and Linda Kaltani

2013/272: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Steven Phillips, Luis Catão, Luca Ricci, Rudolfs Bems, Mitali Das, Julian di Giovanni, Filiz Unsal, Marola Castillo, Jungjin Lee, Jair Rodriguez and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2013/271: Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality

Inessa Love and Rima Turk Ariss

2013/270: Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out

Fernando Broner, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura

2013/269: Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-based Approach

Lorenzo Forni and Massimiliano Pisani

2013/268: Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration

R. Craig, Changchun Hua, Philip Ng and Raymond Yuen

2013/267: Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Camelia Minoiu, Chungwon Kang, V.S. Subrahmanian and Anamaria Berea

2013/266: Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

2013/265: Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Marcos Chamon and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

2013/264: Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies

Laura Jaramillo and Anke Weber

2013/263: Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

Matias Costa Navajas and Aaron Thegeya

2013/262: The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited

Jaromir Benes, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir and Susanna Mursula

2013/261: Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique

Giovanni Melina and Yi Xiong

2013/260: External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Alan Taylor

2013/259: Resilience in Latin America: Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies

Jose De Gregorio

2013/258: Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

Hyun Song Shin

2013/257: System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties

Michal Andrle and Jaromir Benes

2013/256: Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Patrick Blagrave, Peter Elliott, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Doug Hostland, Douglas Laxton and Fan Zhang

2013/255: Securitization: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead

Miguel Segoviano, Bradley Jones, Peter Lindner and Johannes Blankenheim

2013/254: Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields

Laura Jaramillo and Yuanyan Zhang

2013/253: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

2013/252: A Financial Conditions Index for Poland

Giang Ho and Yinqiu Lu

2013/251: Monetary Transmission in Brazil: Has the Credit Channel Changed?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

2013/250: Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Paulo Drummond and Estelle Liu

2013/249: Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default

Michael Kumhof, Romain Ranciere and Pablo Winant

2013/248: This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Markus Eberhardt and Andrea Presbitero

2013/247: The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation

Anton Korinek and Jonathan Kreamer

2013/246: Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation

Risto Herrala and Rima Turk Ariss

2013/245: Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Christopher Erceg and Andrew Levin

2013/244: Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort

Marco Committeri and Carola Pessino

2013/243: Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?

Yinqiu Lu and Tao Sun

2013/242: Baltic and Icelandic Experiences of Capital Flows and Capital Flow Measures

Audun Groenn and Maria Wallin Fredholm

2013/241: Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Fabian Valencia

2013/240: Sector-Level Productivity, Structural Change, and Rebalancing in China

Malhar Nabar and Kai Yan

2013/239: Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya

Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Rafael Portillo, Jan Vlcek and Rogelio Morales

2013/238: Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies

Emanuele Baldacci, Sanjeev Gupta and Carlos Mulas-Granados

2013/237: The Investment-Financing-Growth Nexus: The Case of Liberia

John Clark JR and Manuel Rosales Torres

2013/236: Drivers of Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries

Manuk Ghazanchyan and Janet Stotsky

2013/235: Cross-border Activity of Japanese Banks

Waikei Lam

2013/234: International Corporate Governance Spillovers: Evidence from Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

Rui Albuquerque, Luis Brandão-Marques, Miguel Ferreira and Pedro Matos

2013/233: Bailouts and Systemic Insurance

Giovanni Dell'ariccia and Lev Ratnovski

2013/232: Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing

Daniel Hardy and Christian Schmieder

2013/231: Sovereign Wealth Funds: Aspects of Governance Structures and Investment Management

Abdullah Alhassan, Michael Papaioannou, Martin Skancke and Cheng Chih Sung

2013/230: Fiscal Consolidations and Growth: Does Speed Matter?

Steven Pennings and Esther Perez Ruiz

2013/229: Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil-Exporting Countries

Stephen Snudden

2013/228: The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis

Dennis Botman, Irineu de Carvalho Filho and Waikei Lam

2013/227: Sovereign Risk and Belief-Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area

Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Andre Meier and Gernot Mueller

2013/226: Making Monetary Policy More Effective: The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Felix Fischer, Charlotte Lundgren and Samir Jahjah

2013/225: Spillovers to and from the Nordic Economies: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis

Francis Vitek

2013/224: The International Monetary System: Where Are We and Where Do We Need to Go?

Rakesh Mohan, Michael Patra and Muneesh Kapur

2013/223: Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Mirko Abbritti, Salvatore Dell'Erba, Antonio Moreno and Sergio Sola

2013/222: The Big Split: Why Did Output Trajectories in the ASEAN-4 Diverge after the Global Financial Crisis?

Agnes Isnawangsih, Vladimir Klyuev and Longmei Zhang

2013/221: Taxation and Corporate Debt: Are Banks any Different?

Jost Heckemeyer and Ruud de Mooij

2013/220: The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure

Michal Andrle, Roberto Garcia-Saltos and Giang Ho

2013/219: Shining a Light on the Mysteries of State: The Origins of Fiscal Transparency in Western Europe

Timothy Irwin

2013/218: Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

Dale Gray

2013/217: Growth Following Investment and Consumption-Driven Current Account Crises

Alexander Klemm

2013/216: Fiscal Discipline in WAEMU: Rules, Institutions, and Markets

Ermal Hitaj and Yasin Onder

2013/215: Inclusive Growth and Inequality in Senegal

Alexei Kireyev

2013/214: The Economic Performance Index (EPI): an Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective

Vadim Khramov and John Ridings Lee

2013/213: Outlook for Interest Rates and Japanese Banks’ Risk Exposures under Abenomics

Serkan Arslanalp and Waikei Lam