IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2022/216: Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms

Antonio David and Can Sever

2022/215: A Quarterly Projection Model for the WAEMU

Carlos de Resende, Alsim Fall and Demba Sy

2022/214: Raising Armenia’s Export Potential

Klakow Akepanidtaworn, Lili Karapetyan, Nathalie Reyes and Yulia Ustyugova

2022/213: Productivity and Product Markets in Korea: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Andrew Swiston and Stella Tam

2022/212: Financial Innovation and Statistical Methodological Guidance—Key Considerations

Joe Crowley, Marco Espinosa-Vega, Elizabeth Holmquist, Ken Lamar, Emmanuel Manolikakis, James McAndrews and Holt Williamson

2022/211: Scarring and Corporate Debt

Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Pablo Gonzalez-Dominguez, Siddharth Kothari and Nour Tawk

2022/210: Digitalization and Resilience

Alexander Copestake, Julia Estefania-Flores and Davide Furceri

2022/209: Monetary Policy Communication and Financial Markets in India

Faisal Ahmed, Mahir Binici and Jarkko Turunen

2022/208: Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era

Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra

2022/207: How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy

Alain Kabundi, Montfort Mlachila and Jiaxiong Yao

2022/206: Digital Money and Central Banks Balance Sheet

Adrian Armas and Manmohan Singh

2022/205: Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area

Jiaqian Chen, Lucyna Gornicka and Vaclav Zdarek

2022/204: Updating Inflation Weights in the UK and Germany during COVID-19

Francesco Grigoli and Evgenia Pugacheva

2022/203: The Propensity to Remit: Macro and Micro Factors Driving Remittances to Central America and the Caribbean

Hussein Bidawi, Paola Aliperti F. Domingues, Chiara Fratto and Nicole Laframboise

2022/202: Did Insurers Become Risk-Loving During “Low-for-Long”? The Role of Returns, Ratings, and Regulation

Jeroen Brinkhoff and Juan Sole

2022/201: Unpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Novel Survey

Era Dabla-Norris, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Yuanyan Zhang, Thuy Dinh Pham, Nga Huong Phi, Duong Thuy Nguyen and Tuan Danh Duong

2022/200: How Do State-Owned Enterprises Adjust During Downturns: Evidence from Iranian Manufacturing Firms

Ebad Ebadi and C. Priscilla Toffano

2022/199: Cross-Country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms

David Amaglobeli, Valerio Crispolti and Xuguang Simon Sheng

2022/198: Regional Disparities in Europe

Ravi Balakrishnan, Louise Rabier, Christian Ebeke, Melih Firat and Davide Malacrino

2022/197: Experimental Indicators of Digital Industries in Select Countries: Definitions, Methods, and Results

Brent Moulton, James Tebrake and Martha Tovar

2022/196: A Tale of Tier 3 Cities

Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang

2022/195: Did the COVID-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the United States? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data

Jiaming Soh, Myrto Oikonomou, Carlo Pizzinelli, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/194: Why European Banks Adjust their Dividend Payouts?

Marco Belloni, Maciej Grodzicki and Mariusz Jarmuzek

2022/193: Keeping it Simple–Efficiency Costs of Fixed Margin Regimes in Transfer Pricing

Sebastian Beer, Sebastien Leduc and Jan Loeprick

2022/192: Promoting Innovation: The Differential Impact of R&D Subsidies

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Christoph Grimpe and Wolfgang Sofka

2022/191: U.S. Monetary Policy Shock Spillovers: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Jeanne Verrier

2022/190: Rationalizing Pharmaceutical Spending

Manuel García-Goñi

2022/189: Stress Testing the Global Economy to Climate Change-Related Shocks in Large and Interconnected Economies

Camilo Tovar, Yiqun Wu and Tianxiao Zheng

2022/188: Shock Absorbers or Transmitters? The Role of Foreign Banks during COVID-19

Weijia Yao, Anamika Sen and Juan Yepez

2022/187: Excess Profit Taxes: Historical Perspective and Contemporary Relevance

Shafik Hebous, Dinar Prihardini and Nate Vernon-Lin

2022/186: Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History

Luis Jácome and Samuel Pienknagura

2022/185: Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for Vietnam

Amr Hosny and Alexandre Sollaci

2022/184: Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Machine Learning Approach

Anil Ari, Gabor Pula and Liyang Sun

2022/183: OPEC and the Oil Market

Andrea Pescatori and Yousef Nazer

2022/182: Sustainable Finance in Emerging Markets: Evolution, Challenges, and Policy Priorities

Rohit Goel, Deepali Gautam and Fabio Natalucci

2022/181: Determinants of Inflation in Iran and Policies to Curb It

H. Elif Ture and Ali Reza Khazaei

2022/180: Closing Peru's Ethnic Gaps Amidst Sustained Economic Growth

Carlos Chavez, Gonzalo Salinas and Yuri Zamora

2022/179: Waiting for Godot? The Case for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Small Island States

Serhan Cevik

2022/178: Dirty Dance: Tourism and Environment

Serhan Cevik

2022/177: Home or Away? Profit Shifting with Territorial Taxation

Dominika Langenmayr and Li Liu

2022/176: Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Boileau Loko, Nelie Nembot and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2022/175: The Fear Economy: A Theory of Output, Interest, and Safe Assets

Ruchir Agarwal

2022/174: Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma or Opportunity of the Century?

Serhan Cevik

2022/173: Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook

Chikako Baba and Jaewoo Lee

2022/172: What Matters for Job Finding and Separation in the Long Run? Evidence from Labor Market Dynamics in New Zealand

Guanyu Zheng, Gulnara Nolan, Christopher Ball, Siddharth Kothari and Yosuke Kido

2022/171: The Systemic Impact of Debt Default in a Multilayered Global Network Model

Nathan Porter, Camilo Tovar, Juan Trevino, Johannes Eugster and Theofanis Papamichalis

2022/170: Effective Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in Severe Recessions

Jiaqian Chen, Raphael Espinoza, Carlos Goncalves, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Martina Hengge, Zoltán Jakab and Jesper Lindé

2022/169: Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana

Philip Abradu-Otoo, Ivy Acquaye, Abubakar Addy, Nana Kwame Akosah, James Attuquaye, Simon Harvey, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Zakari Mumuni and Valeriu Nalban

2022/168: Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Maximilien Queyranne, Romain Lafarguette and Kubi Johnson

2022/167: Breaking Bad: A Disaggregated Analysis of Inflation Inertia

Serhan Cevik

2022/166: Mind the Gap: City-Level Inflation Synchronization

Serhan Cevik

2022/165: India’s State-Owned Enterprises

Ruchir Agarwal, Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Lesley Fisher and Xuehui Han

2022/164: The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis

Jean-Marc Fournier, Takuma Hisanaga and Anh Nguyen

2022/163: Bank Stress Testing of Physical Risks under Climate Change Macro Scenarios: Typhoon Risks to the Philippines

Stephane Hallegatte, Fabian Lipinsky, Paola Morales, Hiroko Oura, Nicola Ranger, Martijn Gert Jan Regelink and Henk Jan Reinders

2022/162: Debt-for-Climate Swaps: Analysis, Design, and Implementation

Marcos Chamon, Erik Klok, Vimal Thakoor and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2022/161: Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain

Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli and Emiliano Luttini

2022/160: Is Education Neglected in Natural Resources-Rich Countries? An Intergenerational Approach in Africa

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Regina Séri

2022/159: Economic Growth After Debt Surges

Joao Jalles and Paulo Medas

2022/158: Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention

Andrew Filardo, R. Gaston Gelos and Thomas McGregor

2022/157: Do IMF Programs Stimulate Private Sector Investment?

Pietro Bomprezzi, Silvia Marchesi and Rima Turk Ariss

2022/156: Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations

Berkay Akyapi, Matthieu Bellon and Emanuele Massetti

2022/155: Legal Gender Equality as a Catalyst for Convergence

Can Sever

2022/154: Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Selim Cakir, Maria Atamanchuk, Mazin Al Riyami, Nia Sharashidze and Nathalie Reyes

2022/153: Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach

Burcu Hacibedel and Ritong Qu

2022/152: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

Anil Ari, Nicolas Arregui, Simon Black, Oya Celasun, Dora Iakova, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian Parry, Iulia Teodoru and Karlygash Zhunussova

2022/151: Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning

Yang Liu, Di Yang and Yunhui Zhao

2022/150: Distributional Effects of Tax Reforms in Japan: Micro-simulation Approach

Takuma Hisanaga

2022/149: Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics

Tidiane Kinda, Andras Lengyel and Kaustubh Chahande

2022/148: Unorthodox Expenditure Procedures in CEMAC and WAEMU Countries

Bruno Imbert, Hoda Selim, Gwenaelle Suc and Qing Zhao

2022/147: Sudden Stops and Optimal Policy in a Two-agent Economy

Nina Biljanovska and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2022/146: Transitioning to a Greener Labor Market: Cross-Country Evidence from Microdata

John Bluedorn, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Diaa Noureldin, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/145: Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply

C. Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer and Frederik Toscani

2022/144: The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff

Ting Lan, Galen Sher and Jing Zhou

2022/143: Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union

Silvia Albrizio, John Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2022/142: A Comprehensive Package of Macroeconomic Policy Measures for Implementing China’s Climate Mitigation Strategy

Jean Chateau, Wenjie Chen, Florence Jaumotte and Karlygash Zhunussova

2022/141: Macroprudential Regulation and Sector-Specific Default Risk

Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Jean-Charles Wijnandts

2022/140: Women in Fintech: As Leaders and Users

Purva Khera, Sumiko Ogawa, Ratna Sahay and Mahima Vasishth

2022/139: Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes

Xuequan Elsie Peng and Chima Simpson-Bell

2022/138: Inequality and the Structure of Countries’ External Liabilities

Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann, Miriam Kohl and Tobias Krahnke

2022/137: Financial Sector and Economic Growth in India

Margaux MacDonald and TengTeng Xu

2022/136: An Alternative Proof of Minimum Trace Reconciliation

Sakai Ando and Futoshi Narita

2022/135: Staple Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Assessment

Cedric Okou, John Spray and Filiz Unsal

2022/134: Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Tigran Poghosyan

2022/133: Contagion as a Dealmaker? The Effect of Financial Spillovers on Regional Lending Programs

Alexandra Fotiou, Alica Bonk and Georgios Manalis

2022/132: The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations

Yoosoon Chang, Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez and Gee Hee Hong

2022/131: Agglomeration, Innovation, and Spatial Reallocation: The Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits

Alexandre Sollaci

2022/130: Output Losses in Europe During COVID-19: What Role for Policies?

Anil Ari, Jean-Marc Atsebi and Mar Domenech Palacios

2022/129: From Polluting to Green Jobs: A Seamless Transition in the U.S.?

Katharina Bergant, Rui Mano and Ippei Shibata

2022/128: Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power

Anastasia Burya, Rui Mano, Yannick Timmer and Anke Weber

2022/127: Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits

Matteo Ghilardi and Roy Zilberman

2022/126: Fiscal Consolidation and Firm Level Productivity: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Maxwell Tuuli and Ngo Long

2022/125: Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation

Natan Epstein, Lucyna Gornicka, Nga Ha, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

2022/124: The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation: Evidence from Europe

John Bluedorn, Francesca Caselli, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/123: Policy Space Index: Short-Term Response to a Catastrophic Event

José Ferrer and Alexei Kireyev

2022/122: Sovereign Debt

Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch, Francisco Roldán and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2022/121: Income Convergence or Divergence in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Shock?

Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu and Chris Papageorgiou

2022/120: International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

Shekhar Aiyar, Davide Malacrino, Adil Mohommad and Andrea Presbitero

2022/119: Pictures of a Revolution: Analyzing the Transition from Global Bimetallism to the Gold Standard in the 1860s and 1870s

Johannes Wiegand

2022/118: The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model: A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia

Victoria Babajanyan, Daniel Baksa, Martin Fukac, Eduard Hakobyan, Arshaluys Harutyunyan, Narek Karapetyan, Babken Pashinyan, Garik Petrosyan and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2022/117: A New Claims-Based Unemployment Dataset: Application to Postwar Recoveries Across U.S. States

Andrew Fieldhouse, Sean Howard, Christoffer Koch and David Munro