IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2022/153: Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach

Burcu Hacibedel and Ritong Qu

2022/152: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

Anil Ari, Nicolas Arregui, Simon Black, Oya Celasun, Dora Iakova, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian Parry, Iulia Teodoru and Karlygash Zhunussova

2022/151: Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning

Yang Liu, Di Yang and Yunhui Zhao

2022/150: Distributional Effects of Tax Reforms in Japan: Micro-simulation Approach

Takuma Hisanaga

2022/149: Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics

Tidiane Kinda, Andras Lengyel and Kaustubh Chahande

2022/148: Unorthodox Expenditure Procedures in CEMAC and WAEMU Countries

Bruno Imbert, Hoda Selim, Gwenaelle Suc and Qing Zhao

2022/147: Sudden Stops and Optimal Policy in a Two-agent Economy

Nina Biljanovska and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2022/146: Transitioning to a Greener Labor Market: Cross-Country Evidence from Microdata

John Bluedorn, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Diaa Noureldin, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/145: Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply

C. Di Bella, Mark Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer and Frederik Toscani

2022/144: The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff

Ting Lan, Galen Sher and Jing Zhou

2022/143: Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union

Silvia Albrizio, John Bluedorn, Christoffer Koch, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2022/142: A Comprehensive Package of Macroeconomic Policy Measures for Implementing China’s Climate Mitigation Strategy

Jean Chateau, Wenjie Chen, Florence Jaumotte and Karlygash Zhunussova

2022/141: Macroprudential Regulation and Sector-Specific Default Risk

Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon and Jean-Charles Wijnandts

2022/140: Women in Fintech: As Leaders and Users

Purva Khera, Sumiko Ogawa, Ratna Sahay and Mahima Vasishth

2022/139: Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes

Xuequan Elsie Peng and Chima Simpson-Bell

2022/138: Inequality and the Structure of Countries’ External Liabilities

Philipp Harms, Mathias Hoffmann, Miriam Kohl and Tobias Krahnke

2022/137: Financial Sector and Economic Growth in India

Margaux MacDonald and TengTeng Xu

2022/136: An Alternative Proof of Minimum Trace Reconciliation

Sakai Ando and Futoshi Narita

2022/135: Staple Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Assessment

Cedric Okou, John Spray and Filiz Unsal

2022/134: Financial Development and Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Tigran Poghosyan

2022/133: Contagion as a Dealmaker? The Effect of Financial Spillovers on Regional Lending Programs

Alexandra Fotiou, Alica Bonk and Georgios Manalis

2022/132: The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations

Yoosoon Chang, Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez and Gee Hee Hong

2022/131: Agglomeration, Innovation, and Spatial Reallocation: The Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits

Alexandre Sollaci

2022/130: Output Losses in Europe During COVID-19: What Role for Policies?

Anil Ari, Jean-Marc Atsebi and Mar Domenech Palacios

2022/129: From Polluting to Green Jobs: A Seamless Transition in the U.S.?

Katharina Bergant, Rui Mano and Ippei Shibata

2022/128: Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power

Anastasia Burya, Rui Mano, Yannick Timmer and Anke Weber

2022/127: Macroeconomic Effects of Dividend Taxation with Investment Credit Limits

Matteo Ghilardi and Roy Zilberman

2022/126: Fiscal Consolidation and Firm Level Productivity: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Maxwell Tuuli and Ngo Long

2022/125: Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation

Natan Epstein, Lucyna Gornicka, Nga Ha, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

2022/124: The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation: Evidence from Europe

John Bluedorn, Francesca Caselli, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2022/123: Policy Space Index: Short-Term Response to a Catastrophic Event

José Ferrer and Alexei Kireyev

2022/122: Sovereign Debt

Leonardo Martinez, Francisco Roch, Francisco Roldán and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2022/121: Income Convergence or Divergence in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Shock?

Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu and Chris Papageorgiou

2022/120: International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

Shekhar Aiyar, Davide Malacrino, Adil Mohommad and Andrea Presbitero

2022/119: Pictures of a Revolution: Analyzing the Transition from Global Bimetallism to the Gold Standard in the 1860s and 1870s

Johannes Wiegand

2022/118: The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model: A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia

Victoria Babajanyan, Daniel Baksa, Martin Fukac, Eduard Hakobyan, Arshaluys Harutyunyan, Narek Karapetyan, Babken Pashinyan, Garik Petrosyan and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2022/117: A New Claims-Based Unemployment Dataset: Application to Postwar Recoveries Across U.S. States

Andrew Fieldhouse, Sean Howard, Christoffer Koch and David Munro

2022/116: The Distributional Impact of a Carbon Tax in Asia and the Pacific

Cristian Alonso and Joey Kilpatrick

2022/115: The International Diffusion of Policies for Climate Change Mitigation

Manuel Linsenmeier, Adil Mohommad and Gregor Schwerhoff

2022/114: Tracking Economic and Financial Policies During COVID-19: An Announcement-Level Database

Divya Kirti, Yang Liu, Soledad Martinez Peria, Prachi Mishra and Jan Strasky

2022/113: Quantitative Easing and Credit Rating Agencies

Nordine Abidi, Matteo Falagiarda and Ixart Miquel-Flores

2022/112: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model

Marcin Kolasa, Sahil Ravgotra and Pawel Zabczyk

2022/111: Fiscal Decentralization Improves Social Outcomes When Countries Have Good Governance

Ryota Nakatani, Qianqian Zhang and Isaura Garcia Valdes

2022/110: Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting: High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities

Sakai Ando and Taehoon Kim

2022/109: Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

Robert Beyer, Yingyao Hu and Jiaxiong Yao

2022/108: Fintech, Female Employment, and Gender Inequality

Boileau Loko and Yuanchen Yang

2022/107: The Great Carbon Arbitrage

Tobias Adrian, Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis

2022/106: The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel or Vulnerability Amplifier?

Alberto Behar and Ramin Hassan

2022/105: Voting Right Rotation, Behavior of Committee Members and Financial Market Reactions: Evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Michael Ehrmann, Robin Tietz and Bauke Visser

2022/104: Macroeconomic Effects of Market Structure Distortions: Evidence from French Cartels

Flavien Moreau and Ludovic Panon

2022/103: For Whom the Bell Tolls: Climate Change and Inequality

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2022/102: Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2022/101: Jobs Impact of Green Energy

Jaden Kim and Adil Mohommad

2022/100: Strengthening Public Expenditure Efficiency: Investment and Social Spending in Bulgaria

Jean-Jacques Hallaert and Keyra Primus

2022/099: Finance Vaccine Equity: Funding for Day-Zero of the Next Pandemic

Ruchir Agarwal and Tristan Reed

2022/098: Sovereign Eurobond Liquidity and Yields

Daniel Hardy

2022/097: Seven Finance & Trade Lessons from COVID-19 for Future Pandemics

Ruchir Agarwal and Gita Gopinath

2022/096: Do Monetary Policy Outcomes Promote Stability in Fragile Settings?

Oumar Diallo, Steve Gui-Diby and Patrick Imam

2022/095: Road Quality and Mean Speed Score

Marian Moszoro and Mauricio Soto

2022/094: Assessing Vulnerabilities to Corruption in Public Procurement and Their Price Impact

Aly Abdou, Olivier Basdevant, Elizabeth David-Barrett and Mihaly Fazekas

2022/093: Weather Shocks and Exchange Rate Flexibility

Selim Elekdag and Maxwell Tuuli

2022/092: Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Aleksandra Babii, Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev and Yorbol Yakhshilikov

2022/091: Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies: A Decomposition into Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Factors

Weicheng Lian and Andreas Freitag

2022/090: Bilateral Trade Imbalances

Alejandro Cunat and Robert Zymek

2022/089: The Japanese Labor Market During the COVID- 19 Pandemic

Shinya Kotera and Jochen M. Schmittmann

2022/088: Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Karim Barhoumi, Seung Mo Choi, Tara Iyer, Jiakun Li, Franck Ouattara, Andrew Tiffin and Jiaxiong Yao

2022/087: Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers

Sascha Buetzer

2022/086: Measuring Carbon Emissions of Foreign Direct Investment in Host Economies

Maria Borga, Achille Pegoue, Gregory Legoff, Alberto Sanchez Rodelgo, Dmitrii Entaltsev and Kenneth Egesa

2022/085: Digital Money and Central Bank Operations

Charles Kahn, Manmohan Singh and Jihad Alwazir

2022/084: Reported Social Unrest Index: March 2022 Update

Philip Barrett

2022/083: Cross-Border Central Bank Digital Currencies, Bank Runs and Capital Flows Volatility

Adina Popescu

2022/082: Fiscal Multipliers and Informality

Emilio Colombo, Davide Furceri, Pietro Pizzuto and Patrizio Tirelli

2022/081: Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from French Firms

Mariya Brussevich, Chris Papageorgiou and Pauline Wibaux

2022/080: Fintech: Financial Inclusion or Exclusion?

Yoke Wang Tok and Dyna Heng

2022/079: The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Foreign Investment in the United States

Thornton Matheson, Alexander Klemm, Laura Power and Thomas Brosy

2022/078: Sovereign Cocos

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, Yasin Onder and Francisco Roch

2022/077: Sovereign Debt Repatriation During Crises

Serkan Arslanalp and Laura Sunder-Plassmann

2022/076: Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

Constance de Soyres, Reina Kawai Eskimez and Mengxue Wang

2022/075: High Performance Export Portfolio: Design Growth-Enhancing Export Structure with Machine Learning

Natasha Che and Xuege Zhang

2022/074: Monetary Policy Transmission and Policy Coordination in China

Sonali Das and Wenting Song

2022/073: India’s Banks: Lending to Productive Firms?

Siddharth George, Divya Kirti, Soledad Martinez Peria and Rajesh Vijayaraghavan

2022/072: Shocks to Inflation Expectations

Philip Barrett and Jonathan Adams

2022/071: Corporate Vulnerabilities in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan in the Wake of COVID-19 Pandemic

Nordine Abidi and Mohamed Belkhir

2022/070: The Return of Expansionary Austerity: Firms’ Investment Response to Fiscal Adjustments in Emerging Markets

Nicolas Magud and Samuel Pienknagura

2022/069: Pandemic, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from India

Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin and Arvind Virmani

2022/068: A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19

Ruchir Agarwal, Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett and Peter Sands

2022/067: Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries

Alessandro Cantelmo, Nikos Fatouros, Giovanni Melina and Chris Papageorgiou

2022/066: Policy Sequencing Towards Carbon Pricing - Empirical Evidence From G20 Economies and Other Major Emitters

Manuel Linsenmeier, Adil Mohommad and Gregor Schwerhoff

2022/065: What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.?

Marco Gross, Thierry Tressel, Xiaodan Ding and Eugen Tereanu

2022/064: Household Vulnerability to Income Shocks in Emerging and Developing Asia: the Case of Cambodia, Nepal and Vietnam

Alessia De Stefani, Athene Laws and Alexandre Sollaci

2022/063: What Explains Remittance Fees? Panel Evidence

Thorsten Beck, Mathilde Janfils and Kangni Kpodar

2022/062: Social Versus Individual Work Preferences: Implications for Optimal Income Taxation

Zhiyong An and David Coady

2022/061: Shipping Costs and Inflation

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jiménez and Jonathan Ostry

2022/060: Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations

Marwa Alnasaa, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Jiro Honda, Eslem Imamoglu, Paolo Mauro, Keyra Primus and Dmitriy Rozhkov

2022/059: Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World

András Komáromi, Diego Cerdeiro and Yang Liu

2022/058: The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies

Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen and Chima Simpson-Bell

2022/057: Digitalization and Tax Compliance Spillovers: Evidence from a VAT e-Invoicing Reform in Peru

Matthieu Bellon, Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, Juan Carlos Paliza, Jillie Chang and Pilar Villena

2022/056: The Financial Performance and Macrofinancial Implications of Large State-Owned Enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa

Torsten Wezel and Naly Carvalho

2022/055: Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil

Daniel Cunha, Joana Pereira, Roberto Perrelli and Frederik Toscani

2022/054: Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations

Rodolfo Maino and Drilona Emrullahu