IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2015/170: A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay

Rafael Portillo and Yulia Ustyugova

2015/169: Household Financial Access and Risk Sharing in Nigeria

Stacy Carlson, Era Dabla-Norris, Mika Saito and Yu Shi

2015/168: Does Public Sector Inefficiency Constrain Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Provinces

Raffaela Giordano, Sergi Lanau, Pietro Tommasino and Petia Topalova

2015/167: Default Premium

Luis Catão and Rui Mano

2015/166: From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors

David Amaglobeli, Nicolas End, Mariusz Jarmuzek and Geremia Palomba

2015/165: Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Javier Gómez-Pineda, Dominique Guillaume and Kadir Tanyeri

2015/164: Macroeconomic Challenges of Structural Transformation: Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Sierra Leone

Lacina Balma and Mthuli Ncube

2015/163: Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries

Juliana Araujo, Antonio David, Carlos Eduardo van Hombeeck and Chris Papageorgiou

2015/162: The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings

Niklas Engbom, Enrica Detragiache and Faezeh Raei

2015/161: Price and Income Elasticity of Indian Exports—The Role of Supply-Side Bottlenecks

Mehdi Raissi and Volodymyr Tulin

2015/160: Drivers of Financial Integration – Implications for Asia

Nasha Ananchotikul, Shi Piao and Edda Zoli

2015/159: Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Olivier Blanchard, Gustavo Adler and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

2015/158: Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?

Jack Ree, Gee Hee Hong and Seoeun Choi

2015/157: The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries

Ali Al-Sadiq

2015/156: The Dog That Didn’t Bark: The Strange Case of Domestic Policy Cooperation in the “New Normal”

Tamim Bayoumi

2015/155: Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis

Zhongxia Zhang and Yuan Gao

2015/154: LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular

Luis Jácome and Srobona Mitra

2015/153: Financial Factors: Implications for Output Gaps

Pau Rabanal and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

2015/152: The Quest for the Holy Grail: Efficient and Equitable Fiscal Consolidation in India

Chadi Abdallah, David Coady, Sanjeev Gupta and Emine Hanedar

2015/151: China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”

Waikei Lam, Xiaoguang Liu and Alfred Schipke

2015/150: Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton and Dirk Muir

2015/149: Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov

2015/148: What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies

Diana Ayala Pena, Milan Nedeljkovic and Christian Saborowski

2015/147: Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management

Elsie Addo Awadzi

2015/146: Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward

Dimitri Demekas

2015/145: How Does Post-Crisis Bank Capital Adequacy Affect Firm Investment?

Yangfan Sun and Hui Tong

2015/144: A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Ali Alichi

2015/143: The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data

Alexander Herman, Deniz Igan and Juan Sole

2015/142: Systemic Risk: A New Trade-off for Monetary Policy?

Stefan Laséen, Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen

2015/141: Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets

Christian Ebeke and Annette Kyobe

2015/140: Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms: A Lost Cause?

Daniel Law and Shaun Roache

2015/139: Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci

2015/138: Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?

Fabio Comelli

2015/137: What Really Drives Public Debt: A Holistic Approach

Pablo Anaya Longaric and Alex Pienkowski

2015/136: The Journey to Inflation Targeting: Easier Said than Done The Case for Transitional Arrangements along the Road

Bernard Laurens, Kelly Eckhold, Darryl King, Nils Maehle, Abdul Naseer and Alain Durré

2015/135: Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States

Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen

2015/134: Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States

Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondrej Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen and Hou Wang

2015/133: Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, John Simon and Susan Wachter

2015/132: Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency

Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Michel Juillard, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton and Hou Wang

2015/131: The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

2015/130: Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Panel Approach

Gustavo Adler, Noëmie Lisack and Rui Mano

2015/129: Monetary Policy in India: Transmission to Bank Interest Rates

Sonali Das

2015/128: Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach

Julien Reynaud

2015/127: Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals

Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens and Damien Puy

2015/126: Pension Reforms in Mauritius: Fair and Fast—Balancing Social Protection and Fiscal Sustainability

Mauricio Soto, Vimal Thakoor and Martin Petri

2015/125: Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific

Ezequiel Cabezon, Leni Hunter, Patrizia Tumbarello, Kazuaki Washimi and Yiqun Wu

2015/124: Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States

Ezequiel Cabezon, Patrizia Tumbarello and Yiqun Wu

2015/123: Experiences with Macroprudential Policy—Five Case Studies

Salim Darbar and Xiaoyong Wu

2015/122: Poverty, Growth, and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Did the Walk Match the Talk under the PRSP Approach?

Daouda Sembene

2015/121: Crime and the Economy in Mexican States: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)

Concha Verdugo Yepes, Peter Pedroni and Xingwei Hu

2015/120: An Overview of Islamic Finance

Mumtaz Hussain, Asghar Shahmoradi and Rima Turk Ariss

2015/119: Make in India: Which Exports Can Drive the Next Wave of Growth?

Rahul Anand, Kalpana Kochhar and Saurabh Mishra

2015/118: Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries

Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud de Mooij and Michael Keen

2015/117: Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?

Sergio Sola and Geremia Palomba

2015/116: U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States

Roberto Cardarelli and Lusine Lusinyan

2015/115: New Energy Sources for Jordan: Macroeconomic Impact and Policy Considerations

Andrea Gamba

2015/114: (Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier

Vincent Belinga and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

2015/113: China’s Growth: Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

Wojciech Maliszewski and Longmei Zhang

2015/112: It’s Not All Fiscal: Effects of Income, Fiscal Policy, and Wealth on Private Consumption

Laura Jaramillo and Alexandre Chailloux

2015/111: A Network Analysis of Sectoral Accounts: Identifying Sectoral Interlinkages in G-4 Economies

Luiza Antoun de Almeida

2015/110: Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

Leandro Medina

2015/109: Correcting “Beyond the Cycle": Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances

Estelle Liu, Todd Mattina and Tigran Poghosyan

2015/108: Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean: Performance and Policies

Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

2015/107: Islamic Finance, Consumer Protection, and Financial Stability

Inutu Lukonga

2015/106: Issuance of Central Bank Securities: International Experiences and Guidelines

Simon Gray and Runchana Pongsaparn

2015/105: How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?

David Coady, Ian Parry, Louis Sears and Baoping Shang

2015/104: Domestic and Foreign Mutual Funds in Mexico: Do They Behave Differently?

Jasmine Xiao

2015/103: High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?

Zuzana Fungáčová, Rima Turk Ariss and Laurent Weill

2015/102: Are African Households Heterogeneous Agents?: Stylized Facts on Patterns of Consumption, Employment, Income and Earnings for Macroeconomic Modelers

Louise Fox

2015/101: Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending: Theory and Evidence

Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

2015/100: Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance?

Rym Ayadi, Sami Ben Naceur, Barbara Casu and Barry Quinn

2015/099: How to Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Alexei Kireyev

2015/098: Tax Policy in MENA Countries: Looking Back and Forward

Mario Mansour

2015/097: Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia’s Manufacturing Sector: Exchange Rate or Structural?

Naomi Griffin

2015/096: What Drives Interest Rate Spreads in Pacific Island Countries? An Empirical Investigation

Fazurin Jamaludin, Vladimir Klyuev and Anuk Serechetapongse

2015/095: The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Abdul Abiad, Davide Furceri and Petia Topalova

2015/094: How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?

Sohrab Rafiq

2015/093: Too Much of a Good Thing? Prudent Management of Inflows under Economic Citizenship Programs

Xin Xu, Ahmed El-Ashram and Judith Gold

2015/092: The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States

Benjamin Hunt, Dirk Muir and Martin Sommer

2015/091: The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation

Cem Karayalcin and Mihaela Pintea

2015/090: From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia

Pranav Gupta, Grace Li and Jiangyan Yu

2015/089: Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

2015/088: What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics

Robert Heath

2015/087: Determinants of Bank Interest Margins in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Raja Almarzoqi and Sami Ben Naceur

2015/086: Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Developing Countries: Catching the Wave?

Juliana Araujo, Antonio David, Carlos Eduardo van Hombeeck and Chris Papageorgiou

2015/085: Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

Qianying Chen, Andrew Filardo, Dong He and Feng Zhu

2015/084: Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

Mali Chivakul, Waikei Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, Wojciech Maliszewski and Alfred Schipke

2015/083: Do Resource Windfalls Improve the Standard of Living in Sub-Saharan African Countries?: Evidence from a Panel of Countries

Munseob Lee and Cheikh Gueye

2015/082: Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis

Dong He, Wei Liao and Tommy Wu

2015/081: Is Islamic Banking Good for Growth?

Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2015/080: Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset

Andrés Fernández Martin, Michael Klein, Alessandro Rebucci, Martin Schindler and Martin Uribe

2015/079: A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Patrick Blagrave, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton and Fan Zhang

2015/078: Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro and Andres Gonzalez

2015/077: Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?

Nicolas Magud and Sebastian Sosa

2015/076: Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Ravi Balakrishnan, Mai Dao, Juan Sole and Jeremy Zook

2015/075: How Did Markets React to Stress Tests?

Bertrand Candelon and Amadou Sy

2015/074: Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic

Ali Alichi, Jaromir Benes, Joshua Felman, Irene Feng, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Evan Tanner, David Vavra and Hou Wang

2015/073: Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs) An Empirical Study of their Impact on Taxpayer Compliance and Administrative Efficiency

Peter Casey and Patricio Castro

2015/072: Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

Mali Chivakul and Waikei Lam

2015/071: Fiscal Multipliers in Ukraine

Pritha Mitra and Tigran Poghosyan