IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2015/229: Employment and the Great Recession: The Role of Real Wages

Bas Bakker

2015/228: Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

Christian Ebeke and Armand Fouejieu

2015/227: Macrofinancial Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

2015/226: Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan Ostry, Atish Ghosh and Marcos Chamon

2015/225: Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism

Serhan Cevik and John Ricco

2015/224: Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound

Ruchir Agarwal and Miles Kimball

2015/223: Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers?

Damiano Sandri

2015/222: Fragilities in the U.S. Treasury Market: Lessons from the “Flash Rally” of October 15, 2014

Antoine Bouveret, Peter Breuer, Yingyuan Chen, David Jones and Tsuyoshi Sasaki

2015/221: Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

Derek Anderson, Jorge Canales Kriljenko, Paulo Drummond, Pedro Espaillat and Dirk Muir

2015/220: A Financial Conditions Index for Greece

Jonathan Manning and Maral Shamloo

2015/219: Emerging Powers and Global Governance: Whither the IMF?

Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur

2015/218: Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?

Anton Korinek and Damiano Sandri

2015/217: Optimal Bank Recovery

C. Goodhart and Miguel Segoviano

2015/216: Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Economies

Julian Chow

2015/215: Big Players Out of Synch: Spillovers Implications of US and Euro Area Shocks

Carolina Osorio-Buitron and Esteban Vesperoni

2015/214: Estimating VAT Pass Through

Dora Benedek, Ruud de Mooij and Philippe Wingender

2015/213: Domestic Market Integration and the Law of One Price in Brazil

Carlos Góes and Troy Matheson

2015/212: Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Fei Han

2015/211: The Impact of Global Liquidity on Financial Landscapes and Risks in the ASEAN-5 Countries

Tao Sun

2015/210: How Does Bank Competition Affect Solvency, Liquidity and Credit Risk? Evidence from the MENA Countries

Raja Almarzoqi, Sami Ben Naceur and Alessandro Scopelliti

2015/209: News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

Rabah Arezki, Valerie Ramey and Liugang Sheng

2015/208: Getting the Dog to Bark: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector

Timothy Irwin

2015/207: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization

Nasha Ananchotikul and Dulani Seneviratne

2015/206: Financial Inclusion: Zooming in on Latin America

Era Dabla-Norris, Yixi Deng, Anna Ivanova, Izabela Karpowicz, Filiz Unsal, Eva VanLeemput and Joyce Wong

2015/205: What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

Rahul Anand, Eswar Prasad and Boyang Zhang

2015/204: Reaping the Benefits from Global Value Chains

Kevin Cheng, Sidra Rehman, Dulani Seneviratne and Shiny Zhang

2015/203: How to De-Dollarize Financial Systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

Sami Ben Naceur, Amr Hosny and Gregory Hadjian

2015/202: Managing the Fed’s Liftoff and Transmission of Monetary Policy

Manmohan Singh

2015/201: Building a Better Union: Incentivizing Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Angana Banerji, Bergljot Barkbu, James John, Tidiane Kinda, Sergejs Saksonovs, Hanni Schoelermann and Tao Wu

2015/200: “But we are different!”: 12 Common Weaknesses in Banking Laws, and What to Do About Them

Wouter Bossu and Dawn Chew

2015/199: Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates

Rudolfs Bems and Robert Johnson

2015/198: Delegated Portfolio Management, Benchmarking, and the Effects on Financial Markets

Deniz Igan and Marcelo Pinheiro

2015/197: Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran and Mehdi Raissi

2015/196: Aid and Growth at the Regional Level

Axel Dreher and Steffen Lohmann

2015/195: A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Janet Stotsky and Qianqian Zhang

2015/194: Normalization of Global Financial Conditions: The Implications for Brazil

Troy Matheson

2015/193: Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems

Deniz Igan and Zhibo Tan

2015/192: Innovation, Deregulation, and the Life Cycle of a Financial Service Industry

Fumiko Hayashi, Grace Li and Zhu Wang

2015/191: Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council

Alberto Behar

2015/190: Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development

Daniela Marchettini and Rodolfo Maino

2015/189: On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Anh Nguyen, Jemma Dridi, Filiz Unsal and Oral Williams

2015/188: Trends in Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from a New Database of the Coverage of Fiscal Reporting

Rachel Wang, Timothy Irwin and Lewis Murara

2015/187: Exports in a Tariff-Free Environment: What Structural Reforms Matter? Evidence from the European Union Single Market

Jesmin Rahman, Ara Stepanyan, Jessie Yang and Li Zeng

2015/186: Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan: Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing

Serkan Arslanalp and Dennis Botman

2015/185: Sub-Saharan Employment Developments: The Important Role of Household Enterprises with an Application to Rwanda

Alun Thomas

2015/184: Integrated Ownership and Control in the GCC Corporate Sector

Andre Santos

2015/183: Production Offshoring and Investment by Japanese Firms

Joong Kang and Shi Piao

2015/182: Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom

Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber

2015/181: Foreign Help Wanted: Easing Japan’s Labor Shortages

Giovanni Ganelli and Naoko Miake

2015/180: Filling the Gap: Infrastructure Investment in Brazil

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos Góes and Izabela Karpowicz

2015/179: Collateral Damage: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

Pablo Druck, Nicolas Magud and Rodrigo Mariscal

2015/178: Estimation of Drivers of Public Education Expenditure: Baumol’s Effect Revisited

Manabu Nose

2015/177: Does A Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation

Kangni Kpodar and Patrick Imam

2015/176: Deflation and Public Finances: Evidence from the Historical Records

Nicolas End, Sampawende Tapsoba, G. Terrier and Renaud Duplay

2015/175: Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies

Sanjeev Gupta, Estelle Liu and Carlos Mulas-Granados

2015/174: Institutions and Growth: a GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach

Carlos Góes

2015/173: What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?

Raja Almarzoqi, Sami Ben Naceur and Akshay Kotak

2015/172: Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in the Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition

Zsoka Koczan

2015/171: Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)

Bill Battaile and Saurabh Mishra

2015/170: A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay

Rafael Portillo and Yulia Ustyugova

2015/169: Household Financial Access and Risk Sharing in Nigeria

Stacy Carlson, Era Dabla-Norris, Mika Saito and Yu Shi

2015/168: Does Public Sector Inefficiency Constrain Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Provinces

Raffaela Giordano, Sergi Lanau, Pietro Tommasino and Petia Topalova

2015/167: Default Premium

Luis Catão and Rui Mano

2015/166: From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs: Risk Factors

David Amaglobeli, Nicolas End, Mariusz Jarmuzek and Geremia Palomba

2015/165: Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Javier Gómez-Pineda, Dominique Guillaume and Kadir Tanyeri

2015/164: Macroeconomic Challenges of Structural Transformation: Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Sierra Leone

Lacina Balma and Mthuli Ncube

2015/163: Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries

Juliana Araujo, Antonio David, Carlos Eduardo van Hombeeck and Chris Papageorgiou

2015/162: The German Labor Market Reforms and Post-Unemployment Earnings

Niklas Engbom, Enrica Detragiache and Faezeh Raei

2015/161: Price and Income Elasticity of Indian Exports—The Role of Supply-Side Bottlenecks

Mehdi Raissi and Volodymyr Tulin

2015/160: Drivers of Financial Integration – Implications for Asia

Nasha Ananchotikul, Shi Piao and Edda Zoli

2015/159: Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Olivier Blanchard, Gustavo Adler and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

2015/158: Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?

Jack Ree, Gee Hee Hong and Seoeun Choi

2015/157: The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries

Ali Al-Sadiq

2015/156: The Dog That Didn’t Bark: The Strange Case of Domestic Policy Cooperation in the “New Normal”

Tamim Bayoumi

2015/155: Emerging Market Heterogeneity: Insights from Cluster and Taxonomy Analysis

Zhongxia Zhang and Yuan Gao

2015/154: LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular

Luis Jácome and Srobona Mitra

2015/153: Financial Factors: Implications for Output Gaps

Pau Rabanal and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

2015/152: The Quest for the Holy Grail: Efficient and Equitable Fiscal Consolidation in India

Chadi Abdallah, David Coady, Sanjeev Gupta and Emine Hanedar

2015/151: China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”

Waikei Lam, Xiaoguang Liu and Alfred Schipke

2015/150: Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton and Dirk Muir

2015/149: Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov

2015/148: What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies

Diana Ayala Pena, Milan Nedeljkovic and Christian Saborowski

2015/147: Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management

Elsie Addo Awadzi

2015/146: Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward

Dimitri Demekas

2015/145: How Does Post-Crisis Bank Capital Adequacy Affect Firm Investment?

Yangfan Sun and Hui Tong

2015/144: A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Ali Alichi

2015/143: The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data

Alexander Herman, Deniz Igan and Juan Sole

2015/142: Systemic Risk: A New Trade-off for Monetary Policy?

Stefan Laséen, Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen

2015/141: Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets

Christian Ebeke and Annette Kyobe

2015/140: Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms: A Lost Cause?

Daniel Law and Shaun Roache

2015/139: Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci

2015/138: Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?

Fabio Comelli

2015/137: What Really Drives Public Debt: A Holistic Approach

Pablo Anaya Longaric and Alex Pienkowski

2015/136: The Journey to Inflation Targeting: Easier Said than Done The Case for Transitional Arrangements along the Road

Bernard Laurens, Kelly Eckhold, Darryl King, Nils Maehle, Abdul Naseer and Alain Durré

2015/135: Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States

Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen

2015/134: Avoiding Dark Corners: A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States

Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondrej Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen and Hou Wang

2015/133: Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, John Simon and Susan Wachter

2015/132: Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency

Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Michel Juillard, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton and Hou Wang

2015/131: The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

2015/130: Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Panel Approach

Gustavo Adler, Noëmie Lisack and Rui Mano