IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2022/016: Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility

Tim Willems and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2022/015: A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

Tobias Adrian, Vitor Gaspar and Francis Vitek

2022/014: Applying the Central Clearing Mandate: Different Options for Different Markets

John Kiff, Alessandro Gullo, Cory Hillier and Panagiotis Papapanagiotou

2022/013: Greece's Investment Gap

Shiqing Hua, Marina Mendes Tavares and Xin Xu

2022/012: Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures

Amr Hosny and Kevin Pallara

2022/011: Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Hamid Davoodi, Paul Elger, Alexandra Fotiou, Daniel Garcia-Macia, Xuehui Han, Andresa Lagerborg, Waikei Lam and Paulo Medas

2022/010: The 'Fiscal Presource Curse': Giant Discoveries and Debt Sustainability

Matteo Ruzzante and Nelson Sobrinho

2022/009: Structural Breaks in Carbon Emissions: A Machine Learning Analysis

Jiaxiong Yao and Yunhui Zhao

2022/008: Tax Policy for Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, Samuel Pienknagura and Carlo Pizzinelli

2022/007: Distribution Costs

Cian Ruane and Alessandra Peter

2022/006: Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times

Vizhdan Boranova, Raju Huidrom, Ezgi Ozturk, Ara Stepanyan, Petia Topalova and Shihangyin (Frank) Zhang

2022/005: Has COVID-19 Induced Labor Market Mismatch? Evidence from the US and the UK

Carlo Pizzinelli and Ippei Shibata

2022/004: Winning the War? New Evidence on the Measurement and the Determinants of Poverty in the United States

Katharina Bergant, Anke Weber and Andrea Medici

2022/003: Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets

Mitali Das, Gita Gopinath and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

2022/002: The Role for Deposit Insurance Funds in Dealing with Failing Banks in the European Union

Atilla Arda and Marc Dobler

2022/001: A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and their Economic Effects

Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Swarnali Hannan, Jonathan Ostry and Andrew Rose

2021/296: Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: A Survey of the Issues

Dimitri Demekas and Pierpaolo Grippa

2021/295: Using the Google Places API and Google Trends Data to Develop High Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity

Paul Austin, Marco Marini, Alberto Sanchez, Chima Simpson-Bell and James Tebrake

2021/294: The Spending Challenge of Achieving the SDGs in South Asia: Lessons from India

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Tewodaj Mogues, Marian Moszoro and Mauricio Soto

2021/293: Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade

Narek Ghazaryan, Alexei Goumilevski, Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski

2021/292: A Quantitative Microfounded Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé and Pawel Zabczyk

2021/291: Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19

Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra and Antonio Spilimbergo

2021/290: Modeling the U.S. Climate Agenda: Macro-Climate Trade-offs and Considerations

Philip Barrett, Katharina Bergant, Jean Chateau and Rui Mano

2021/289: Idiosyncratic Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Emerging Market

Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini and Damiano Sandri

2021/288: Operational Resilience in Digital Payments: Experiences and Issues

Tanai Khiaonarong, Harry Leinonen and Ryan Rizaldy

2021/287: The State and Your Hard-Earned Money: A Survey on Moral Perspectives in Public Finance

Paolo Mauro

2021/286: Successful Transitions from Public to Private-Sector Led Growth: Lessons for Benin

Aissatou Diallo

2021/285: When Does Capacity Development Achieve Good Outcomes? Evidence from the IMF Results-Based Management Data

Antonio Bassanetti

2021/284: Creative Destruction During Crises - An Opportunity for a Cleaner Energy Mix

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry and Nour Tawk

2021/283: Financing for the Post-pandemic Recovery: Developing Domestic Sovereign Debt Markets in Central America

Jean François Clevy, Guilherme Pedras and Esther Perez Ruiz

2021/282: The Premia on State-Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments

Deniz Igan, Taehoon Kim and Antoine Levy

2021/281: COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in Arm for the Economy

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Rui Mano

2021/280: Global Climate Change Mitigation, Fossil-Fuel Driven Development, and the Role of Financial and Technology Transfers: A Simple Framework

Johannes Wiegand

2021/279: State-Level Health and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India

Pragyan Deb and TengTeng Xu

2021/278: Corporate Sector Resilience in India in the Wake of the COVID-19 Shock

Lucyna Gornicka, Sumiko Ogawa and TengTeng Xu

2021/277: The Heavy Economic Toll of Gender-based Violence: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Rasmané Ouedraogo and David Stenzel

2021/276: Assessing Banking and Currency Crisis Risk in Small States: An application to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Carlo Pizzinelli, Kotaro Ishi and Tariq Khan

2021/275: Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts

Yan Carrière-Swallow and José Marzluf

2021/274: Monetary Policy and COVID-19

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Marcin Kolasa and Krzysztof Makarski

2021/273: Tracing Productivity Growth Channels in the UK

Daniel Garcia-Macia and Julia Korosteleva

2021/272: Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence

William Gbohoui

2021/271: The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Kangni Kpodar and Boya Liu

2021/270: Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups

Zidong An, John Bluedorn and Gabriele Ciminelli

2021/269: Gender Budgeting in G20 Countries

Virginia Alonso-Albarran, Teresa Curristine, Gemma Preston, Alberto Soler, Nino Tchelishvili and Sureni Weerathunga

2021/268: Establishing a Foreign Exchange Futures Market in China

Zhongxia Jin, Yue Zhao and Haobin Wang

2021/267: How Does the Repo Market Behave Under Stress? Evidence From the COVID-19 Crisis

Anne-Caroline Hüser, Caterina Lepore and Luitgard Veraart

2021/266: Epidemics, Gender, and Human Capital in Developing Countries

Stefania Fabrizio, Diego Gomes, Carine Meyimdjui and Marina Tavares

2021/265: The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility

Sharjil Haque and Richard Varghese

2021/264: Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19

Andrea Deghi, Junghwan Mok and Tomohiro Tsuruga

2021/263: Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach

Chris Redl and Sandile Hlatshwayo

2021/262: The Effects of Fiscal Measures During COVID-19

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, Nour Tawk and Naihan Yang

2021/261: Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risk in Colombia

Can Sever and Manuel Perez-Archila

2021/260: Barriers to Trade in Financial and Insurance Services: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Jiri Podpiera

2021/259: Monitoring the Climate Impact of Fiscal Policy - Lessons from Tracking the COVID-19 Response

Khaled Eltokhy, Katja Funke, Guohua Huang, Yujin Kim and Genet Zinabou

2021/258: Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Natalia Kuosmanen and Mika Pajarinen

2021/257: Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis

Romain Bouis

2021/256: An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

Philippe Karam, Mikhail Pranovich and Jan Vlcek

2021/255: A Balance-Sheet Analysis of the Dutch Economy

Ruo Chen

2021/254: Safe Asset Demand, Global Capital Flows and Wealth Concentration

Taehoon Kim

2021/253: Analyzing Capital Flow Drivers Using the ‘At-Risk’ Framework: South Africa’s Case

Rohit Goel and Ken Miyajima

2021/252: Measuring the Redistributive Capacity of Tax Policies

Charles Vellutini and Juan Carlos Benitez

2021/251: Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

Seungho Jung, Jongmin Lee and Seohyun Lee

2021/250: Pareto-Improving Minimum Corporate Taxation

Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2021/249: Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Maximilien Queyranne, Daniel Baksa, Vassili Bazinas and Azhin Abdulkarim

2021/248: The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jiménez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan Ostry and Nour Tawk

2021/247: Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jiménez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan Ostry and Nour Tawk

2021/246: A Comprehensive Climate Mitigation Strategy for Mexico

Simon Black, Koralai Kirabaeva, Ian Parry, Mehdi Raissi and Karlygash Zhunussova

2021/245: Natural Resource Taxation in Mexico: Some Considerations

Alpa Shah

2021/244: Social Spending in Mexico: Needs, Priorities and Reforms

Swarnali Hannan, Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and David Bartolini

2021/243: Energy Transition Metals

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2021/242: The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence From the German States

Shekhar Aiyar and Mai Dao

2021/241: Scaling up Climate Mitigation Policy in Germany

Simon Black, Ruo Chen, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian Parry and Dinar Prihardini

2021/240: Brazil: Tax Expenditure Rationalization Within Broader Tax Reform

Maria Coelho

2021/239: Border Carbon Adjustments: Rationale, Design and Impact

Michael Keen, Ian Parry and James Roaf

2021/238: Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security?

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti

2021/237: Opening Up: Capital Flows and Financial Sector Dynamics in Low-Income Developing Countries

Sebastian Horn and Futoshi Narita

2021/236: Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Ian Parry, Simon Black and Nate Vernon-Lin

2021/235: COVID-19 and the Informality-driven Recovery: The Case of Colombia's Labor Market

Jorge Alvarez and Carlo Pizzinelli

2021/234: Growth at Risk from Natural Disasters

Tamim Bayoumi, Saad Quayyum and Sibabrata Das

2021/233: On the Benefits of Repaying

Francesca Caselli, Matilde Faralli, Paolo Manasse and Ugo Panizza

2021/232: Assessing Chile's Pension System: Challenges and Reform Options

Samuel Pienknagura and Christopher Evans

2021/231: Enhancing Tax Compliance in the Dominican Republic Through Risk-based VAT Invoice Management

Cristian Alonso, Ledys Feliz, Patricia Gil and Miguel Pecho

2021/230: Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments

Alejandro Guerson

2021/229: Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring?

Marialuz Moreno Badia, Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez and Yuan Xiang

2021/228: Do Banks Price Environmental Transition Risks? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in a Chinese Province

Bihong Huang, Maria Teresa Punzi and Yu Wu

2021/227: When Do Politicians Appeal Broadly? The Economic Consequences of Electoral Rules in Brazil

Moya Chin

2021/226: A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

Allan Dizioli, Daniel Greenwood and Aneta Radzikowski

2021/225: Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

Serkan Arslanalp, Robin Koepke and Jasper Verschuur

2021/224: Diversion of Tourism Flows in the Asia & Pacific Region: Lessons for COVID-19 Recovery

Vybhavi Balasundharam and Robin Koepke

2021/223: A Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategy for The Netherlands

Nicoletta Batini, Simon Black, Oana Luca and Ian Parry

2021/222: Loose Financial Conditions, Rising Leverage, and Risks to Macro-Financial Stability

Adolfo Barajas, Woon Gyu Choi, Ken Gan, Pierre Guérin, Samuel Mann, Manchun Wang and Yizhi Xu

2021/221: Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean

Dmitry Gershenson, Frederic Lambert, Luis Herrera, Grey Ramos, Marina Rousset and José Torres

2021/220: The Agricultural Exodus in the Philippines: Are Wage Differentials Driving the Process?

Eugenio Cerutti and Yiliang Li

2021/219: Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets

Zhongxia Zhang

2021/218: Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock

Vivian Parlak, Gonzalo Salinas and Jose P Mauricio Vargas

2021/217: Climate Change in South Asia: Further Need for Mitigation and Adaptation

Ruchir Agarwal, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Patrick Blagrave, Eugenio Cerutti, Ragnar Gudmundsson and Racha Mousa

2021/216: An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic and Allan Timmermann

2021/215: Intergenerational Social Mobility in Africa Since 1920

Rasmané Ouedraogo and Nicolas Syrichas

2021/214: Does IT Help? Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship

Toni Ahnert, Sebastian Doerr, Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer

2021/213: The Impact of Environmental Policy on Innovation in Clean Technologies

Johannes Eugster