Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

Robert Beyer, Yingyao Hu and Jiaxiong Yao

No 2022/109, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.

Keywords: Nighttime lights; economic measurement; quarterly GDP; national accounts; COVID-19.; GDP growth; Summary statistics; light growth; growth measure; GDP measure; COVID-19; GDP measurement; Vector autoregression; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45
Date: 2022-06-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space (2022)
Working Paper: Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space (2022)
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