A Tale of Tier 3 Cities

Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang

No 2022/196, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.

Keywords: China; Real Estate; Macro Economy; sector vulnerability; housing stock estimation; infrastructure construction; infrastructure investment; construction rate; Housing; Stocks; Infrastructure; Housing prices; Depreciation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 58
Date: 2022-09-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-ure
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Working Paper: A Tale of Tier 3 Cities (2022)
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