IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2024/084: Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean

Sophia Chen, Ryu Matsuura, Flavien Moreau and Joana Pereira

2024/083: How Vulnerable is Sub-Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation?

Marijn Bolhuis, Hamza Mighri, Henry Rawlings, Ivanova Reyes and Qianqian Zhang

2024/082: Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle

Luciana Juvenal and Ivan Petrella

2024/081: Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation?

Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé and Andrea Pescatori

2024/080: Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, Thomas Kroen and Thomas Piontek

2024/079: This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation

Serhan Cevik and Gyowon Gwon

2024/078: Designing a Progressive VAT

Artur Swistak and Rita de la Feria

2024/077: The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella, Ervin Prifti and Martin Stuermer

2024/076: Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea Presbitero and Petia Topalova

2024/075: Trade in Low Carbon Technologies: The Role of Climate and Trade Policies

Samuel Pienknagura

2024/074: Call of Duty: Industrial Policy for the Post-Oil Era

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Madi Sarsenbayev

2024/073: Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers

Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Haroon Mumtaz and Pawel Zabczyk

2024/072: The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity

Claudio Raddatz, Dulani Seneviratne, Jerome Vandenbussche, Peichu Xie and Yizhi Xu

2024/071: Public Debt Dynamics During the Climate Transition

Daniel Garcia-Macia, Waikei Lam and Anh Nguyen

2024/070: Mobile Internet, Collateral, and Banking

Angelo D’Andrea, Patrick Hitayezu, Kangni Kpodar, Nicola Limodio and Andrea Presbitero

2024/069: E-Money and Monetary Policy Transmission

Zixuan Huang, Amina Lahreche, Mika Saito and Ursula Wiriadinata

2024/068: Cross-Border Impacts of Climate Policy Packages in North America

Jean-Marc Fournier, Tannous Kass-Hanna, Liam Masterson, Anne-Charlotte Paret and Sneha Thube

2024/067: A Proposal to Improve Country-Level Data on Total Factor Productivity Growth

Andrew Warner

2024/066: Smooth Forecast Reconciliation

Sakai Ando

2024/065: The Economic Impacts and the Regulation of AI: A Review of the Academic Literature and Policy Actions

Mariarosaria Comunale and Andrea Manera

2024/064: Deciphering the GloBE in a Low-Tax Jurisdiction

Shafik Hebous, Cory Hillier and Andualem Mengistu

2024/063: The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States

Philip Barrett, Sophia Chen, Li Lin and Anke Weber

2024/062: Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics

Vu Chau, Marina Conesa Martinez, Taehoon Kim and John Spray

2024/061: High Inflation in the Baltics: Disentangling Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Competitiveness

Alice Fan, Bingjie Hu, Sadhna Naik, Neree Noumon and Keyra Primus

2024/060: Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations?

Antonio David, Samuel Pienknagura and Juan Yepez

2024/059: Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Laurent Kemoe, Moustapha Mbohou, Hamza Mighri and Saad Quayyum

2024/058: Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta and Fabio Farinosi

2024/057: Efficient Economic Rent Taxation under a Global Minimum Corporate Tax

Shafik Hebous and Andualem Mengistu

2024/056: The ECB’s Future Monetary Policy Operational Framework: Corridor or Floor?

Luis Brandão-Marques and Lev Ratnovski

2024/055: Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Global Shocks in CEMAC

Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, Lluis Dalmau and Martin Ambassa

2024/054: Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Shan He, Ruofei Hu, Jonathan Leslie and Flora Lutz

2024/053: An Assessment of the 2019 and 2020 Pension Reforms in Mexico

Boele Bonthuis

2024/052: Strengthening Income Stabilization through Social Protection in Emerging and Developing Economies: The Brazilian Experience

Fernanda Brollo, Gabriel Lara Ibarra and Ricardo Campante Vale

2024/051: Specialization, Market Access and Real Income

Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan and Andrei Levchenko

2024/050: Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications

Florian Schuster, Marwa Alnasaa, Lahcen Bounader, Il Jung, Jeta Menkulasi and Joana da Mota

2024/049: Accounting for Climate Risks in Costing the Sustainable Development Goals

Rimjhim Aggarwal, Piergiorgio Carapella, Tewodaj Mogues and Julieth Pico-Mejia

2024/048: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and International Diversification Benefits

Tatsushi Okuda and Tomohiro Tsuruga

2024/047: Monetary Policy with Uncertain Inflation Persistence

Luis Brandão-Marques, Roland Meeks and Vina Nguyen

2024/046: Climate Policies as a Catalyst for Green FDI

Samuel Pienknagura

2024/045: Fiscal Implications of Global Decarbonization

Simon Black, Ruud de Mooij, Vitor Gaspar, Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

2024/044: Do Capital Inflows Spur Technology Diffusion? Evidence from a New Technology Adoption Index

Gabriela Cugat and Andrea Manera

2024/043: Is Inflation Good for Business? The Firm-Level Impact of Inflation Shocks in the Baltics, 1997-2021

Serhan Cevik, Alice Fan and Sadhna Naik

2024/042: The Consequences of Falling Behind the Curve: Inflation Shocks and Policy Delays Under Rational and Behavioral Expectations

Mai Hakamada and Carl Walsh

2024/041: Trade Spillovers of Domestic Subsidies

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2024/040: Inflated Concerns: Exposure to Past Inflationary Episodes and Preferences for Price Stability

Nicolas Magud and Samuel Pienknagura

2024/039: Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets

Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

2024/038: An Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) Diagram for International Economics

Suman Basu and Gita Gopinath

2024/037: Navigating the Evolving Landscape between China and Africa’s Economic Engagements

Wenjie Chen, Michele Fornino and Henry Rawlings

2024/036: Determinants of Zombie Banks in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Torsten Wezel, Hannah Sheldon and Zhengwei Fu

2024/035: A New Measure of Central Bank Independence

Tobias Adrian, Ashraf Khan and Lev Menand

2024/034: Political Fragility: Coups d’État and Their Drivers

Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk Ariss, Weining Xin and Harold Zavarce

2024/033: Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold Evidence for the UK

Li Liu, Ben Lockwood and Eddy Tam

2024/032: Constraints on Trade in the LAC Region

Rina Bhattacharya and Samuel Pienknagura

2024/031: Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area

Maximilian Konradt, Thomas McGregor and Frederik Toscani

2024/030: Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

2024/029: The Legal Foundations of Public Debt Transparency: Aligning the Law with Good Practices

Karla Vasquez, Alissa Ashcroft, Kikachukwu Alex-Okoh, Alessandro Gullo, Olya Kroytor, Yan Liu, Mia Pineda and Ron Snipeliski

2024/028: Platform Precommitment via Decentralization

Marco Reuter

2024/027: Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis

David Amaglobeli, Joaquim Guilhoto, Samir Jahan, Salma Khalid, Waikei Lam, Gregory Legoff, Brent Meyer, Xuguang Simon Sheng, Pawel Smietanka, Sonya Waddell and Daniel Weitz

2024/026: The Impact of Derivatives Collateralization on Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Investment Fund Sector

Audrius Jukonis, Elisa Letizia and Linda Rousová

2024/025: U.S. Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic

Euihyun Bae, Andrew Hodge and Anke Weber

2024/024: Emissions Reduction, Fiscal Costs, and Macro Effects: A Model-based Assessment of IRA Climate Measures and Complementary Policies

Simon Voigts and Anne-Charlotte Paret

2024/023: The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy

Bruno Albuquerque, Martin Iseringhausen and Frederic Opitz

2024/022: Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand

Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Delechat, Thanaphol Kongphalee, Vatsal Nahata, Mouhamadou Sy, Pym Manopimoke and Tamon Yungvichit

2024/021: Geopolitics and International Trade: The Democracy Advantage

Serhan Cevik

2024/020: Is Schumpeter Right? Fintech and Economic Growth

Serhan Cevik

2024/019: ASAP: A Conceptual Model for Digital Asset Platforms

Victor Budau and Herve Tourpe

2024/018: In Search of the Origin of Original Sin Dissipation

Bada Han, Jangyoun Lee and Taehee Oh

2024/017: Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk Taking?

Selim Elekdag, Drilona Emrullahu and Sami Ben Naceur

2024/016: The Leisure Gains from International Trade

Agustin Velasquez

2024/015: Fueling or Following Growth? Causal Effects of Capital Inflows on Recipient Economies

Nicolas End

2024/014: U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations

Giovanni Ugazio and Weining Xin

2024/013: The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty

Lukas Boer and Malte Rieth

2024/012: Digitalization and Employment Gender Gaps During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

Yuanchen Yang, Manuk Ghazanchyan, Silvia Granados-Ibarra and Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza

2024/011: Automation and Welfare: The Role of Bequests and Education

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alexei Goumilevski and Alex Mourmouras

2024/010: Costly Increases in Public Debt when r

Yongquan Cao, Vitor Gaspar and Adrian Peralta

2024/009: Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Interest Rates: Stylized Facts from 30 European Countries

Robert Beyer, Ruo Chen, Florian Misch, Claire Li, Ezgi Ozturk and Lev Ratnovski

2024/008: What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic?

Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Michael Girard

2024/007: The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory

Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Chris Jackson and Rafael Portillo

2024/006: Energy Security and The Green Transition

Jaden Kim, Augustus Panton and Gregor Schwerhoff

2024/005: Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?

Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball

2024/004: Fraying Threads: Exclusion and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif and Mahmoud El-Gamal

2024/003: Searching for Wage Growth: Policy Responses to the “New Machine Age”

Andrew Berg, Edward Buffie, Mariarosaria Comunale, Chris Papageorgiou and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2024/002: Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe

Diva Astinova, Romain Duval, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Ben Park, Ippei Shibata and Frederik Toscani

2024/001: The Return of Industrial Policy in Data

Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Fernando Martín and Michele Ruta

2023/270: Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade

Shushanik Hakobyan, Sergii Meleshchuk and Robert Zymek

2023/269: Getting to Know GMMET: The Global Macroeconomic Model for the Energy Transition

Benjamin Carton, Christopher Evans, Dirk Muir and Simon Voigts

2023/268: Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia

Ninghui Li and Thomas Gade

2023/267: Designing a Presumptive Income Tax Based on Turnover in Countries with Large Informal Sectors

Feng Wei and Jean-Francois Wen

2023/266: Flattening the Curve and the Flight of the Rich: Pandemic-Induced Shifts in US and European Housing Markets

Nina Biljanovska and Giovanni Dell'ariccia

2023/265: Non-traded Gains From Trade - Selection in the Non-Traded Sector: Evidence from Brazil

Rafael Machado Parente and Rowan Shi

2023/264: Inflation Indexation in Public Finances: A Global Dataset on Current Practices

Vybhavi Balasundharam, Arika Kayastha and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

2023/263: Inflation Dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): What is the Role of External Factors?

Fozan Fareed, Abolfazl Rezghi and Charlotte Sandoz

2023/262: Household Debt and Borrower-Based Measures in Finland: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model

Fumitaka Nakamura

2023/261: Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Habtamu Fuje, Jiaxiong Yao, Seung Mo Choi and Hamza Mighri

2023/260: Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?

Jiaqian Chen, Era Dabla-Norris, Carlos Goncalves, Zoltán Jakab and Jesper Lindé

2023/259: The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves

Philipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher

2023/258: How the Brady Plan Delivered on Debt Relief: Lessons and Implications

Neil Shenai and Marijn Bolhuis

2023/257: High-Dimensional Covariance Matrix Estimation: Shrinkage Toward a Diagonal Target

Sakai Ando and Mingmei Xiao

2023/256: Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe

Serhan Cevik and Sadhna Naik

2023/255: How Far Has Globalization Gone? A Tale of Two Regions

Rodolfo Campos, Samuel Pienknagura and Jacopo Timini