Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta and Fabio Farinosi

No 2024/058, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

Keywords: Climate change; International Migration.; A. migration data; country-by-country emigration flow; climate scenario; climate variability; gravity equation; Migration; Natural disasters; Population growth; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2024-03-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env, nep-int and nep-mig
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