IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2023/242: Mitigating Climate Change at the Firm Level: Mind the Laggards

Damien Capelle, Divya Kirti, Nicola Pierri and German Villegas Bauer

2023/241: Predicting the Law: Artificial Intelligence Findings from the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database

Khaled AlAjmi, Jose Deodoro, Ashraf Khan and Kei Moriya

2023/240: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

Tannous Kass-Hanna, Julien Reynaud and Chris Walker

2023/239: Is FinTech Eating the Bank's Lunch?

Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon, Selim Elekdag and Drilona Emrullahu

2023/238: Mobile Money, Perception about Cash, and Financial Inclusion: Learning from Uganda’s Micro-Level Data

Felix Simione and Tara Muehlschlegel

2023/237: Currencies of External Balance Sheets

Cian Allen, Deepali Gautam and Luciana Juvenal

2023/236: Central Bank Digital Currency and Bank Disintermediation in a Portfolio Choice Model

Huifeng Chang, Federico Grinberg, Lucyna Gornicka, Marcello Miccoli and Brandon Tan

2023/235: FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Andrew Berg, Yaroslav Hul, Philippe Karam, Adam Remo and Diego Rodriguez Guzman

2023/234: Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think

Mengqi Wang and Swarnali Hannan

2023/233: The Pass-through of Wages to Consumer Prices in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Sectoral Data in the U.S

Moya Chin and Li Lin

2023/232: The Economic Consequences of Social Unrest: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings

Philip Barrett, Thomas Boulton and Terry Nixon

2023/231: Quantifying the Revenue Yields from Tax Administration Reforms

Hassan Adan, Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Jiro Honda and Manabu Nose

2023/230: A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries

Luc Eyraud, William Gbohoui and Paulo Medas

2023/229: A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and its Implications to COVID-19

Mariarosaria Comunale and Anh Nguyen

2023/228: Social Unrests and Fuel Prices: The Role of Macroeconomic, Social and Institutional Factors

Alassane Drabo, Kodjovi Eklou, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2023/227: Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania

Mantas Dirma and Jaunius Karmelavičius

2023/226: Inclusive GovTech: Enhancing Efficiency and Equity Through Public Service Digitalization

Manabu Nose

2023/225: Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade

Serhan Cevik

2023/224: Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation?

Luis Brandão-Marques, R. Gaston Gelos, David Hofman, Julia Otten, Gurnain Pasricha and Zoe Strauss

2023/223: Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey

Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, Giacomo Magistretti and Alexandre Sollaci

2023/222: Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco

Hippolyte Balima, Olivier Bizimana and Ananta Dua

2023/221: Value Added Tax in the Extractive Industries

Artur Swistak and Nate Vernon-Lin

2023/220: Corruption Kills: Global Evidence from Natural Disasters

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2023/219: Why Is Tunisia’s Unemployment So High? Evidence From Policy Factors

Aymen Belgacem and Jérôme Vacher

2023/218: A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India

Jean Chateau, Geetika Dang, Margaux MacDonald, John Spray and Sneha Thube

2023/217: Financial Stress and Economic Activity: Evidence from a New Worldwide Index

Hites Ahir, Giovanni Dell'ariccia, Davide Furceri, Chris Papageorgiou and Hanbo Qi

2023/216: Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications

Carlo Pizzinelli, Augustus Panton, Marina Tavares, Mauro Cazzaniga and Longji Li

2023/215: Monetary Policy Transmission through Commodity Prices

Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti and Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos

2023/214: Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets

Burcu Hacibedel and Hector Perez-Saiz

2023/213: New Evidence on Spillovers Between Crypto Assets and Financial Markets

Roshan Iyer and Adina Popescu

2023/212: Inflation Dynamics in Bulgaria: The Role of Policies

Anh Nguyen, Hajime Takizawa and Iglika Vassileva

2023/211: Monetary Policy and Labor Market Gender Gaps

Valentina Flamini, Diego Gomes, Bihong Huang, Lisa Kolovich, Aina Puig and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2023/210: Putting Out the NBFIRE: Lessons from the UK's Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) Crisis

Ruo Chen and Esti Kemp

2023/209: Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications

Giovanni Borraccia, Raphael Espinoza, Vincenzo Guzzo, Romain Lafarguette, Fuda Jiang, Vina Nguyen, Miguel Segoviano and Philippe Wingender

2023/208: Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts

Jonathan Adams and Philip Barrett

2023/207: Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan

Levan Gogoberishvili and Ömer Bayar

2023/206: China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence

Alexander Copestake, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Chris Redl

2023/205: Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications

Melih Firat and Otso Hao

2023/204: Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneity: Cross-Country Evidence

Pragyan Deb, Julia Estefania-Flores, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Siddharth Kothari

2023/203: Monitoring Demand and Supply in Asia: An Industry Level Approach

Chris Redl

2023/202: Mining the Gap: Extracting Firms’ Inflation Expectations From Earnings Calls

Silvia Albrizio, Allan Dizioli and Pedro Simon

2023/201: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Chiara Maggi, Alexandre Sollaci, Martin Stuermer and Petia Topalova

2023/200: Banks’ Joint Exposure to Market and Run Risk

Alexander Copestake, Divya Kirti and Yang Liu

2023/199: The Market Price of Risk and Macro-Financial Dynamics

Tobias Adrian, Matthew DeHaven, Fernando Duarte and Tara Iyer

2023/198: Reaching (Beyond) the Frontier: Energy Efficiency in Europe

Serhan Cevik and Kelly Gao

2023/197: Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience

Anil Ari, Philipp Engler, Gloria Li, Manasa Patnam and Laura Valderrama

2023/196: Financial Shock Transmission to Heterogeneous Firms: The Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraint Channel

Livia Chiţu, Magdalena Grothe, Tatjana Schulze and Ine Van Robays

2023/195: Estimation and Determinants of Cost Efficiency: Evidence from Central Bank Operational Expenses

Romain Veyrune and Solo Zerbo

2023/194: Cryptocarbon: How Much Is the Corrective Tax?

Shafik Hebous and Nate Vernon-Lin

2023/193: The Financial Cost of Using Special Drawing Rights: Implications of Higher Interest Rates

Neil Shenai, Nicolas End, Jakree Koosakul and Ayah Said

2023/192: The Zombie Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Bruno Albuquerque and Chenyu Mao

2023/191: ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks

Nuri Baek, Kaustubh Chahande, Kodjovi Eklou, Tidiane Kinda, Vatsal Nahata, Umang Rawat and Ara Stepanyan

2023/190: One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts

Anil Ari, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski and Wei Zhao

2023/189: When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?

Alejandro Badel and Rishi Goyal

2023/188: Dining and Wining During the Pandemic? A Quasi-Experiment on Tax Cuts and Consumer Spending in Lithuania

Serhan Cevik

2023/187: Debtor (Non-)Participation in Sovereign Debt Relief: A Real Option Approach

Danny Cassimon, Dennis Essers and Andrea Presbitero

2023/186: The Role of Structural Fiscal Policy on Female Labor Force Participation in OECD Countries

Miyoko Asai, Qiaoe Chen, Jiro Honda, Xingwei Hu and Qianqian Zhang

2023/185: Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

Shant Arzoumanian

2023/184: Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

Etienne Espagne, William Oman, Jean-François Mercure, Romain Svartzman, Ulrich Volz, Hector Pollitt, Gregor Semieniuk and Emanuele Campiglio

2023/183: Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks

Caterina Lepore and Roshen Fernando

2023/182: Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa

Olivier Bizimana and Shant Arzoumanian

2023/181: Good Supervision: Lessons from the Field

Tobias Adrian, Marina Moretti, Ana Carvalho, Hee Chon, Katharine Seal, Fabiana Melo and Jay Surti

2023/180: Environmental Policies and Innovation in Renewable Energy

Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Pietro Pizzuto and Nadia Shakoor

2023/179: Modeling the Reserve Demand to Facilitate Central Bank Operations

Zhuohui Chen, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Romain Veyrune

2023/178: Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation

Mai Dao, Allan Dizioli, Chris Jackson, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Daniel Leigh

2023/177: The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts, and the Eurozone Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin and Todd Messer

2023/176: From Extreme Events to Extreme Seasons: Financial Stability Risks of Climate Change in Mexico

Michaela Dolk, Dimitrios Laliotis and Sujan Lamichhane

2023/175: Delays in Climate Transition Can Increase Financial Tail Risks: A Global Lesson from a Study in Mexico

Dimitrios Laliotis and Sujan Lamichhane

2023/174: Default Risk and Transition Dynamics with Carbon Shocks

Sujan Lamichhane

2023/173: Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey

David Aikman, Daniel Beale, Adam Brinley-Codd, Anne-Caroline Hüser, Giovanni Covi and Caterina Lepore

2023/172: An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan

Adel Al-Sharkas, Nedal Al-Azzam, Sarah AlTalafha, Rasha Abu Shawish, Ahmad Shalein, Auday Rawwaqah, Amany Al-Rawashdeh, Daniel Baksa, Philippe Karam and Jan Vlcek

2023/171: Macroprudential Policies and Capital Controls Over Financial Cycles

Maria Arakelyan, Adam Gersl and Martin Schindler

2023/170: Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity

Bas Bakker

2023/169: IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update

Simon Black, Antung Liu, Ian Parry and Nate Vernon-Lin

2023/168: Reported Social Unrest Index: August 2023 Update

Philip Barrett and Euihyun Bae

2023/167: How Nations Become Fragile: An AI-Augmented Bird’s-Eye View (with a Case Study of South Sudan)

Tohid Atashbar

2023/166: Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework

Diogo Baptista, John Spray and Filiz Unsal

2023/165: The Elasticity of Substitution Between Skilled and Unskilled Labor in Developing Countries: A Directed Technical Change Perspective

Alberto Behar

2023/164: The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

Camila Casas, Sergii Meleshchuk and Yannick Timmer

2023/163: The Crypto Cycle and US Monetary Policy

Natasha Che, Alexander Copestake, Davide Furceri and Tammaro Terracciano

2023/162: Revisiting Covid Scarring in Emerging Markets

Chris Jackson and Jason Lu

2023/161: Integrated Monetary and Financial Policies for Small Open Economies

Suman Basu, Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath, Francisco Roch and Filiz Unsal

2023/160: Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2023/159: International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax

Michael Keen, Li Liu and Hayley Pallan

2023/158: Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Omer Faruk Akbal, Seung Mo Choi, Futoshi Narita and Jiaxiong Yao

2023/157: Predicting Financial Crises: The Role of Asset Prices

Tristan Hennig, Plamen Iossifov and Richard Varghese

2023/156: Do Corporate Bond Shocks Affect Commercial Bank Lending?

Mario Catalan and Alexander Hoffmaister

2023/155: Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Capital-Skill Complementarity

Anna Belianska

2023/154: Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

Waikei Lam and Marialuz Moreno Badia

2023/153: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on a Nowcast

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2023/152: Constructing a Positive Shock: Growth Through the Lens of Option Pricing

Mehmet Cangul

2023/151: Digital Tokens: A Legal Perspective

José Garrido

2023/150: Household Savings in Selected Southern European Countries Evidence from Cross-Country Micro-Level Data

Kamil Dybczak, Shiqing Hua, Mariusz Jarmuzek, Ruifeng Zhang and Yipei Zhang

2023/149: Shared Problem, Shared Solution: Benefits from Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in the Euro Area

Robert Beyer, Rupa Duttagupta, Alexandra Fotiou, Keiko Honjo, Mark Horton, Zoltán Jakab, Vina Nguyen, Rafael Portillo, Jesper Lindé, Nujin Suphaphiphat and Li Zeng

2023/148: Evolution of National Accounts Statistics Compilation Practices Over the Period 2018 to 2021 in 189 Economies

Anthony Silungwe

2023/147: Inequality and Poverty in India: Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Response

Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Mattia Coppo, Nasser Khalil, Shinya Kotera and Filiz Unsal

2023/146: The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market

Kodjovi Eklou

2023/145: Raising Rates with a Large Balance Sheet: The Eurosystem’s Net Income and its Fiscal Implications

Nazim Belhocine, Ashok Bhatia and Jan Frie

2023/144: Taxing Cryptocurrencies

Katherine Baer, Ruud A. Mooij, Shafik Hebous and Michael Keen

2023/143: Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations

Luis Brandão-Marques, Marco Casiraghi, R. Gaston Gelos, Olamide Harrison and Gunes Kamber