IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2023/137: A Note of Caution on the Relation Between Money Growth and Inflation

Helge Berger, Sune Karlsson and Pär Österholm

2023/136: Migration, Search and Skill Heterogeneity

Myrto Oikonomou

2023/135: An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis

Kaili Chen, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Hou Wang, Pawel Zabczyk and Jianping Zhou

2023/134: Rising Child Poverty in Europe: Mitigating the Scarring from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jean-Jacques Hallaert, Iglika Vassileva and Tingyun Chen

2023/133: Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Reduce Fiscal Policy Pro-cyclicality? New Evidence Using a Non-Parametric Approach

Ali Al-Sadiq and Diego Alejandro Gutiérrez

2023/132: Foreign Currency Balance Sheets in Türkiye: Exposure and Interconnectedness

Alex Pienkowski

2023/131: Euro Area Inflation after the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Frederik Toscani and Jing Zhou

2023/130: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors

William Gbohoui, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Yirbehogre Modeste Some

2023/129: External Shocks, Policies, and Tail-Shifts in Real Exchange Rates

Nicolas Magud and Samuel Pienknagura

2023/128: The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change

Simon Black, Ian Parry, Victor Mylonas, Nate Vernon-Lin and Karlygash Zhunussova

2023/127: Central Bank Digital Currency Adoption: A Two-Sided Model

Brandon Tan

2023/126: Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles

Can Sever

2023/125: The Rise of the Walking Dead: Zombie Firms Around the World

Bruno Albuquerque and Roshan Iyer

2023/124: Trading with Friends in Uncertain Times

Adam Jakubik and Michele Ruta

2023/123: Some Lessons from Asian E-Money Schemes for the Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency

Tao Sun and Ryan Rizaldy

2023/122: Digitalization and Gender Equality in Political Leadership in Sub-Saharan Africa

Diego Gomes and Carine Meyimdjui

2023/121: Bank Competition and Household Privacy in a Digital Payment Monopoly

Itai Agur, Anil Ari and Giovanni Dell'ariccia

2023/120: Restructuring Reforms for Green Growth

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2023/119: Macroprudential Policy and Bank Systemic Risk: Does Inflation Targeting Matter?

Mohamed Belkhir, Sami Ben Naceur, Bertrand Candelon, Woon Gyu Choi and Farah Mugrabi

2023/118: The Distributional and Fiscal Implications of Public Utility Pricing

David Coady, Samir Jahan, Fabiana Machado and Mengfei Gu

2023/117: Fiscal Anatomy of Two Crises and an Interlude

Xuehui Han, Paolo Mauro and John Ralyea

2023/116: Cars and the Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers

Oya Celasun, Galen Sher, Petia Topalova and Jing Zhou

2023/115: Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies

John Hooley, Claney Lattie and Peter Stella

2023/114: Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions

John Hooley, Ashraf Khan, Claney Lattie, Istvan Mak, Natalia Salazar, Amanda Sayegh and Peter Stella

2023/113: Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Developments

Bruno Casella, Maria Borga and Konstantin Wacker

2023/112: Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?

Marina Conesa Martinez, Futoshi Narita and Chris Papageorgiou

2023/111: Dollar Exchange Rate volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data

Kodjovi Eklou

2023/110: Financial Heterogeneity, Investment, and Firm Interactions

Yang Liu

2023/109: The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Tigran Poghosyan

2023/108: Climate Mitigation Policy in Türkiye

Ian Parry, Danielle Minnett and Karlygash Zhunussova

2023/107: Spillovers to Emerging Markets from US Economic News and Monetary Policy

Philipp Engler, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher

2023/106: Measuring the Stances of Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Francis Vitek

2023/105: Too Low for Too Long: Could Extended Periods of Ultra Easy Monetary Policy Have Harmful Effects?

Etibar Jafarov and Enrico Minnella

2023/104: Nigeria’s eNaira, One Year After

Jookyung Ree

2023/103: The Extent and Composition of Automatic Stabilization in EU Countries

David Coady, Silvia De Poli, Adrián Hernández, Andrea Papini and Alberto Tumino

2023/102: How We Missed the Inflation Surge: An Anatomy of Post-2020 Inflation Forecast Errors

Christoffer Koch and Diaa Noureldin

2023/101: Benchmarking Infrastructure Using Public Investment Efficiency Frontiers

Javier Kapsoli, Tewodaj Mogues and Genevieve Verdier

2023/100: Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?

Anil Ari, Daniel Garcia-Macia and Shruti Mishra

2023/099: Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers

Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, Chris Papageorgiou and Pauline Wibaux

2023/098: It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation

Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin

2023/097: Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition

Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

2023/096: ECB Euro Liquidity Lines

Silvia Albrizio, Iván Kataryniuk, Luis Molina Sánchez and Jan Schäfer

2023/095: Firm-level Digitalization and Resilience to Shocks: Role of Fiscal Policy

Manabu Nose and Jiro Honda

2023/094: Remittances and Social Safety Nets During COVID-19: Evidence From Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic

Nordine Abidi, Mehdi Akhbari, Bashar Hlayhel and Sahra Sakha

2023/093: The Effects of Inflation on Public Finances

Daniel Garcia-Macia

2023/092: The Right Tool for the Job? Mortgage Distress and Personal Insolvency during the European Debt Crisis

Wolfgang Bergthaler, Jose Garrido and Anjum Rosha

2023/091: Who are Central Banks? Gender, Human Resources, and Central Banking

Mariarosaria Comunale, Petra de Bruxelles, Kalpana Kochhar, Juliette Raskauskas and Filiz Unsal

2023/090: Mining Revenues and Inclusive Development in Guinea

Alejandro Badel and Rachel Fredman Lyngaas

2023/089: Revisiting the Countercyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Joao Jalles, Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, Waikei Lam and Roberto Piazza

2023/088: Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries?

Ablam Estel Apeti, Olivier Basdevant and Veronique Salins

2023/087: Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth

Serhan Cevik and Joao Jalles

2023/086: State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Melih Firat, Davide Furceri and Daniel Jiménez

2023/085: Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies

Josef Platzer, Francesco Grigoli and Robin Tietz

2023/084: Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Nelnan Fidèle Koumtingué and Sebastian Weber

2023/083: Leveraging Anti-money Laundering Measures to Improve Tax Compliance and Help Mobilize Domestic Revenues

Emmanuel Mathias and Adrian Wardzynski

2023/082: Unleashing India’s Growth Potential

Shinya Kotera and TengTeng Xu

2023/081: Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending

Serhan Cevik

2023/080: How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?

Sakai Ando, Chenxu Fu, Francisco Roch and Ursula Wiriadinata

2023/079: Are We Heading for Another Debt Crisis in Low-Income Countries? Debt Vulnerabilities: Today vs the pre-HIPC Era

Chuku Chuku, Prateek Samal, Joyce Saito, Dalia Hakura, Marcos Chamon, Martin Cerisola, Guillaume Chabert and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

2023/078: Stacking up the Benefits: Lessons from India’s Digital Journey

Cristian Alonso, Tanuj Bhojwani, Emine Hanedar, Dinar Prihardini, Gerardo Uña and Kateryna Zhabska

2023/077: Renminbi Usage in Cross-Border Payments: Regional Patterns and the Role of Swaps Lines and Offshore Clearing Banks

Hector Perez-Saiz and Longmei Zhang

2023/076: European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options

Laura Valderrama, Patrik Gorse, Marina Marinkov and Petia Topalova

2023/075: Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability

Laura Valderrama

2023/074: Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices

David Amaglobeli, Mengfei Gu, Emine Hanedar, Gee Hee Hong and Celine Thevenot

2023/073: Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities

Marijn Bolhuis, Jiaqian Chen and Benjamin Kett

2023/072: Currency Usage for Cross Border Payments

Hector Perez-Saiz, Longmei Zhang and Roshan Iyer

2023/071: A Deep Dive into Tax Buoyancy: Comparing Estimation Techniques in a Large Heterogeneous Panel

Antoine Cornevin, Juan Corrales and Juan Pablo Angel

2023/070: Peering Through the Fog of Uncertainty: Out-of-Sample Forecasts of Post-Pandemic Tourism

Serhan Cevik

2023/069: Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial Inclusion

Brandon Tan

2023/068: Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict

Patcharaporn Leepipatpiboon, Chiara Castrovillari and Tomohide Mineyama

2023/067: Capital Controls in Times of Crisis – Do They Work?

Apoorv Bhargava, Romain Bouis, Annamaria Kokenyne, Manuel Perez-Archila, Umang Rawat and Ratna Sahay

2023/066: Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations

Francesco Grigoli and Damiano Sandri

2023/065: Determinants and Social Dividends of Digital Adoption

Utkarsh Kumar, David Amaglobeli and Marian Moszoro

2023/064: Public-Private Wage Differentials and Interactions Across Countries and Time

Chadi Abdallah, David Coady and La-Bhus Jirasavetakul

2023/063: Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design

Vybhavi Balasundharam, Olivier Basdevant, Dalmacio Benicio, Andrew Ceber, Yujin Kim, Luca Mazzone, Hoda Selim and Yongzheng Yang

2023/062: Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World’s Population

Tanai Khiaonarong and David Humphrey

2023/061: Derivative Margin Calls: A New Driver of MMF Flows

Maddalena Ghio, Linda Rousová, Dilyara Salakhova and German Villegas Bauer

2023/060: Monetary Policy Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Perspectives on Jurisdictions with Conventional and Islamic Banking Systems

Inutu Lukonga

2023/059: Debt Mutualization in the Euro Area: A Quantitative Exploration

Sakai Ando, Giovanni Dell'ariccia, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Guido Lorenzoni, Adrian Peralta and Francisco Roch

2023/058: Sovereign ESG Bond Issuance: A Guidance Note for Sovereign Debt Managers

Peter Lindner and Kay Chung

2023/057: Deconstructing ESG Scores: How to Invest with your own Criteria?

Torsten Ehlers, Ulrike Elsenhuber, Kumar Jegarasasingam and Eric Jondeau

2023/056: Public versus Private Cost of Capital with State-Contingent Terminal Value

Luciano Greco and Marian Moszoro

2023/055: The Heterogeneous Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Non-Bank Finance

Andrew Hodge and Anke Weber

2023/054: Who Pays for Your Rewards? Redistribution of the Credit Card Market

Sumit Agarwal, Andrea Presbitero, Andre Silva and Carlo Wix

2023/053: Sectoral Impact and Propagation of Weather Shocks

Guglielmo Zappalà

2023/052: Heterogeneous Spending, Heterogeneous Multipliers

Umberto Muratori, Pedro Juarros and Daniel Valderrama-Gonzalez

2023/051: Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies under Fire-Sale Externalities

Flora Lutz

2023/050: Do Capital Controls Limit Inflow Surges?

Apoorv Bhargava, Romain Bouis, Annamaria Kokenyne, Manuel Perez-Archila, Umang Rawat and Ratna Sahay

2023/049: Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans

Gohar Minasyan, Ezgi Ozturk, Magali Pinat, Mengxue Wang and Zeju Zhu

2023/048: Capital Account Liberalization and Wage Inequality: Evidence from Firm Level Data

Kodjovi Eklou and Shakeba Foster

2023/047: 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology

Cian Allen, Camila Casas, Giovanni Ganelli, Luciana Juvenal, Daniel Leigh, Pau Rabanal, Cyril Rebillard, Jair Rodriguez and Joao Jalles

2023/046: Unbearable Costs: When Is Inflation Impeding Job Creation? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Ibrahima Camara, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Amadou Sy

2023/045: Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models

Jing Xie

2023/044: Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation

Laurence Ball, Carlos Carvalho, Christopher Evans and Luca Ricci

2023/043: Differential Effects of Macroprudential Policy

Nina Biljanovska and Sophia Chen

2023/042: Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery

Johannes Kemp, Rafael Portillo and Marika Santoro

2023/041: Surrogate Data Models: Interpreting Large-scale Machine Learning Crisis Prediction Models

Jorge Chan-Lau, Ruofei Hu, Maksym Ivanyna, Ritong Qu and Cheng Zhong

2023/040: AI and Macroeconomic Modeling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC model

Tohid Atashbar and Rui Aruhan Shi

2023/039: Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Zo Andriantomanga, Marijn Bolhuis and Shushanik Hakobyan

2023/038: Guaranteeing Trade in a Severe Crisis: Cash Collateral over Bank Guarantees

Antonis Kotidis, Margaux MacDonald and Dimitrios Malliaropulos