IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2024/121: A Tale of Two Margins: Monetary Policy and Capital Misallocation

Silvia Albrizio, Beatriz Gonzalez and Dmitry Khametshin

2024/120: Sovereign Green Bonds: A Catalyst for Sustainable Debt Market Development?

Gong Cheng, Torsten Ehlers, Frank Packer and Yanzhe Xiao

2024/119: Cross-Border Payments Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean

Dimitris Drakopoulos, Yibin Mu, Dmitry Vasilyev and Mauricio Villafuerte

2024/118: Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts

Patrick Imam and Christian Schmieder

2024/117: Inequality in a More Equal World—Labor Market Gender Gaps in St. Lucia

Hyunmin Park and Swarnali Hannan

2024/116: Exposure to Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Mobility: A Cross-Country Analysis

Mauro Cazzaniga, Carlo Pizzinelli, Emma Rockall and Marina Tavares

2024/115: Monitoring Privately-held Firms' Default Risk in Real Time: A Signal-Knowledge Transfer Learning Model

Jorge Chan-Lau, Ruofei Hu, Luca Mungo, Ritong Qu, Weining Xin and Cheng Zhong

2024/114: Reinforcement Learning from Experience Feedback: Application to Economic Policy

Tohid Atashbar

2024/113: Policy Multipliers in Japan Under QQE

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2024/112: Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict

Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo

2024/111: Do Renewables Shield Inflation from Fossil Fuel-Price Fluctuations?

Laurent Millischer, Chenxu Fu, Ulrich Volz and John Beirne

2024/110: Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach

Jiaxiong Yao

2024/109: Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe

Armand Fouejieu, Shakill Hassan, Ruben Atoyan and Yiran Zha

2024/108: Exploring the Role of Public Expenditure in Advancing Female Economic Empowerment and Gender Equality

Charla Britt and Danielle Egerer

2024/107: E-Commerce During COVID in Spain: One “Click” Does Not Fit All

Prachi Mishra, Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo, Antonio Spilimbergo and Sirenia Vazquez

2024/106: Hanging Out to Dry? Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Drought in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Kalin Tintchev and Laura Jaramillo

2024/105: Examining Price-Wage Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Uruguay

Pau Rabanal and M. Belen Sbrancia

2024/104: A Framework for Systemwide Liquidity Analysis

Xiaodan Ding, Dimitrios Laliotis and C. Priscilla Toffano

2024/103: New Perspectives on Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Capital Policies

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Roger McLeod, Romain Veyrune and Pawel Zabczyk

2024/102: Sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing: Chasing Elusive Sustainability

Ekaterina Gratcheva and Bryan Gurhy

2024/101: EMDE Central Bank Interventions during COVID-19 to Support Market Functioning

Kelly Eckhold, Julia Faltermeier, Darryl King, Istvan Mak and Dmitri Petrov

2024/100: Echoes Across Borders: Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Antonio David, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Markus Specht

2024/099: Forecasting Tail Risk via Neural Networks with Asymptotic Expansions

Yuji Sakurai and Zhuohui Chen

2024/098: Conflicts and Growth: The R&D Channel

Can Sever

2024/097: Intra-African Migration: Exploring the Role of Human Development, Institutions, and Climate Shocks

Désiré Kanga, Boileau Loko, Gomez Agou and Kangni Kpodar

2024/096: Challenges Facing SSNs in Emerging and Developing Economies

Fernanda Brollo, David Coady, Samir Jahan and Riki Matsumoto

2024/095: Strengthening Social Protection to Pave the Way for Technological Innovation: Evidence from the U.S

Fernanda Brollo

2024/094: The Impact of Reduced Commuting on Labor Supply and Household Welfare: A Post-Pandemic Analysis

Yi Ji, Myrto Oikonomou, Carlo Pizzinelli, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2024/093: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence

Ariadne Checo, Francesco Grigoli and Damiano Sandri

2024/092: Dominant Drivers of Current Account Dynamics

Lukas Boer and Jaewoo Lee

2024/091: At the Threshold: The Increasing Relevance of the Middle-Income Trap

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2024/090: The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia

Nordine Abidi, Mehdi El Herradi, Boriana Yontcheva and Ananta Dua

2024/089: Cash Flow Analysis of Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries

Thomas Benninger, Dan Devlin, Eduardo Camero Godinez and Nate Vernon-Lin

2024/088: Central Banks Casting a Global Financial Safety Net: What Drives the Supply of Bilateral Swaps?

Jakree Koosakul and Alexei Miksjuk

2024/087: Public Debt Dynamics and the Impact of Fiscal Policy

Nikhil Patel and Adrian Peralta

2024/086: The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

2024/085: A Primer on Bitcoin Cross-Border Flows: Measurement and Drivers

Eugenio Cerutti, Jiaqian Chen and Martina Hengge

2024/084: Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean

Sophia Chen, Ryu Matsuura, Flavien Moreau and Joana Pereira

2024/083: How Vulnerable is Sub-Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation?

Marijn Bolhuis, Hamza Mighri, Henry Rawlings, Ivanova Reyes and Qianqian Zhang

2024/082: Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle

Luciana Juvenal and Ivan Petrella

2024/081: Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation?

Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé and Andrea Pescatori

2024/080: Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, Thomas Kroen and Thomas Piontek

2024/079: This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation

Serhan Cevik and Gyowon Gwon

2024/078: Designing a Progressive VAT

Artur Swistak and Rita de la Feria

2024/077: The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella, Ervin Prifti and Martin Stuermer

2024/076: Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea Presbitero and Petia Topalova

2024/075: Trade in Low Carbon Technologies: The Role of Climate and Trade Policies

Samuel Pienknagura

2024/074: Call of Duty: Industrial Policy for the Post-Oil Era

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Madi Sarsenbayev

2024/073: Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers

Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Haroon Mumtaz and Pawel Zabczyk

2024/072: The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity

Claudio Raddatz, Dulani Seneviratne, Jerome Vandenbussche, Peichu Xie and Yizhi Xu

2024/071: Public Debt Dynamics During the Climate Transition

Daniel Garcia-Macia, Waikei Lam and Anh Nguyen

2024/070: Mobile Internet, Collateral, and Banking

Angelo D’Andrea, Patrick Hitayezu, Kangni Kpodar, Nicola Limodio and Andrea Presbitero

2024/069: E-Money and Monetary Policy Transmission

Zixuan Huang, Amina Lahreche, Mika Saito and Ursula Wiriadinata

2024/068: Cross-Border Impacts of Climate Policy Packages in North America

Jean-Marc Fournier, Tannous Kass-Hanna, Liam Masterson, Anne-Charlotte Paret and Sneha Thube

2024/067: A Proposal to Improve Country-Level Data on Total Factor Productivity Growth

Andrew Warner

2024/066: Smooth Forecast Reconciliation

Sakai Ando

2024/065: The Economic Impacts and the Regulation of AI: A Review of the Academic Literature and Policy Actions

Mariarosaria Comunale and Andrea Manera

2024/064: Deciphering the GloBE in a Low-Tax Jurisdiction

Shafik Hebous, Cory Hillier and Andualem Mengistu

2024/063: The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States

Philip Barrett, Sophia Chen, Li Lin and Anke Weber

2024/062: Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics

Vu Chau, Marina Conesa Martinez, Taehoon Kim and John Spray

2024/061: High Inflation in the Baltics: Disentangling Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Competitiveness

Alice Fan, Bingjie Hu, Sadhna Naik, Neree Noumon and Keyra Primus

2024/060: Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations?

Antonio David, Samuel Pienknagura and Juan Yepez

2024/059: Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Laurent Kemoe, Moustapha Mbohou, Hamza Mighri and Saad Quayyum

2024/058: Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta and Fabio Farinosi

2024/057: Efficient Economic Rent Taxation under a Global Minimum Corporate Tax

Shafik Hebous and Andualem Mengistu

2024/056: The ECB’s Future Monetary Policy Operational Framework: Corridor or Floor?

Luis Brandão-Marques and Lev Ratnovski

2024/055: Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Global Shocks in CEMAC

Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, Lluis Dalmau and Martin Ambassa

2024/054: Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Shan He, Ruofei Hu, Jonathan Leslie and Flora Lutz

2024/053: An Assessment of the 2019 and 2020 Pension Reforms in Mexico

Boele Bonthuis

2024/052: Strengthening Income Stabilization through Social Protection in Emerging and Developing Economies: The Brazilian Experience

Fernanda Brollo, Gabriel Lara Ibarra and Ricardo Campante Vale

2024/051: Specialization, Market Access and Real Income

Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan and Andrei Levchenko

2024/050: Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications

Florian Schuster, Marwa Alnasaa, Lahcen Bounader, Il Jung, Jeta Menkulasi and Joana da Mota

2024/049: Accounting for Climate Risks in Costing the Sustainable Development Goals

Rimjhim Aggarwal, Piergiorgio Carapella, Tewodaj Mogues and Julieth Pico-Mejia

2024/048: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and International Diversification Benefits

Tatsushi Okuda and Tomohiro Tsuruga

2024/047: Monetary Policy with Uncertain Inflation Persistence

Luis Brandão-Marques, Roland Meeks and Vina Nguyen

2024/046: Climate Policies as a Catalyst for Green FDI

Samuel Pienknagura

2024/045: Fiscal Implications of Global Decarbonization

Simon Black, Ruud de Mooij, Vitor Gaspar, Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

2024/044: Do Capital Inflows Spur Technology Diffusion? Evidence from a New Technology Adoption Index

Gabriela Cugat and Andrea Manera

2024/043: Is Inflation Good for Business? The Firm-Level Impact of Inflation Shocks in the Baltics, 1997-2021

Serhan Cevik, Alice Fan and Sadhna Naik

2024/042: The Consequences of Falling Behind the Curve: Inflation Shocks and Policy Delays Under Rational and Behavioral Expectations

Mai Hakamada and Carl Walsh

2024/041: Trade Spillovers of Domestic Subsidies

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2024/040: Inflated Concerns: Exposure to Past Inflationary Episodes and Preferences for Price Stability

Nicolas Magud and Samuel Pienknagura

2024/039: Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets

Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

2024/038: An Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) Diagram for International Economics

Suman Basu and Gita Gopinath

2024/037: Navigating the Evolving Landscape between China and Africa’s Economic Engagements

Wenjie Chen, Michele Fornino and Henry Rawlings

2024/036: Determinants of Zombie Banks in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Torsten Wezel, Hannah Sheldon and Zhengwei Fu

2024/035: A New Measure of Central Bank Independence

Tobias Adrian, Ashraf Khan and Lev Menand

2024/034: Political Fragility: Coups d’État and Their Drivers

Aliona Cebotari, Enrique Chueca-Montuenga, Yoro Diallo, Yunsheng Ma, Rima Turk Ariss, Weining Xin and Harold Zavarce

2024/033: Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold Evidence for the UK

Li Liu, Ben Lockwood and Eddy Tam

2024/032: Constraints on Trade in the LAC Region

Rina Bhattacharya and Samuel Pienknagura

2024/031: Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area

Maximilian Konradt, Thomas McGregor and Frederik Toscani

2024/030: Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

2024/029: The Legal Foundations of Public Debt Transparency: Aligning the Law with Good Practices

Karla Vasquez, Alissa Ashcroft, Kikachukwu Alex-Okoh, Alessandro Gullo, Olya Kroytor, Yan Liu, Mia Pineda and Ron Snipeliski

2024/028: Platform Precommitment via Decentralization

Marco Reuter

2024/027: Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis

David Amaglobeli, Joaquim Guilhoto, Samir Jahan, Salma Khalid, Waikei Lam, Gregory Legoff, Brent Meyer, Xuguang Simon Sheng, Pawel Smietanka, Sonya Waddell and Daniel Weitz

2024/026: The Impact of Derivatives Collateralization on Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Investment Fund Sector

Audrius Jukonis, Elisa Letizia and Linda Rousová

2024/025: U.S. Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic

Euihyun Bae, Andrew Hodge and Anke Weber

2024/024: Emissions Reduction, Fiscal Costs, and Macro Effects: A Model-based Assessment of IRA Climate Measures and Complementary Policies

Simon Voigts and Anne-Charlotte Paret

2024/023: The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy

Bruno Albuquerque, Martin Iseringhausen and Frederic Opitz

2024/022: Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand

Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Delechat, Thanaphol Kongphalee, Vatsal Nahata, Mouhamadou Sy, Pym Manopimoke and Tamon Yungvichit