IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2024/167: Managing Foreign Exchange Rate Risk: Capacity Development for Public Debt Managers in Emerging Market and Low-Income Countries

Thordur Jonasson, Sheheryar Malik, Kay Chung and Michael Papaioannou

2024/166: Enhancing IMF Economics Training: AI-Powered Analysis of Qualitative Learner Feedback

András Komáromi, Xiaomin Wu, Ran Pan, Yang Liu, Pablo Cisneros, Anchal Manocha and Hiba El Oirghi

2024/165: Public Perceptions of Canada’s Investment Climate

Flora Lutz, Yuanchen Yang and Chengyu Huang

2024/164: Capital Controls on Outflows: New Evidence and a Theoretical Framework

Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández and Humberto Martinez

2024/163: Can Mobile Technologies Enhance Productivity? A Structural Model and Evidence from Benin Food Suppliers

Pierre Nguimkeu and Cedric Okou

2024/162: Climate Policies and External Adjustment

Rudolfs Bems, Luciana Juvenal, Weifeng Liu and Warwick McKibbin

2024/161: The Mirage of Falling R-stars

Ales Bulir and Jan Vlcek

2024/160: Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Brexit

Jagjit Chadha, Corrado Macchiarelli, Satyam Goel, Arno Hantzsche and Sathya Mellina

2024/159: Minimum Wages, Inequality, and the Informal Sector

Rafael Machado Parente

2024/158: The Global Financial Cycle: Quantities versus Prices

Eugenio Cerutti and Stijn Claessens

2024/157: Gender Diversity and Corporate Resilience to Climate Change: Evidence from Greenfield Investments

Ming Yan William Cheung and Bihong Huang

2024/156: The Green Future: Labor Market Implications for Men and Women

Naomi-Rose Alexander, Longji Li, Jorge Mondragon, Sahar Priano and Marina Tavares

2024/155: Policy Options for Climate Mitigation: Emissions Trading Schemes in Asia-Pacific

Margaux MacDonald and Ian Parry

2024/154: From Adoption to Innovation: State-Dependent Technology Policy in Developing Countries

Jaedo Choi and Younghun Shim

2024/153: Greenflation or Greensulation? The Case of Fuel Excise Taxes and Oil Price Pass-through

JaeBin Ahn

2024/152: Knowledge Diffusion Through FDI: Worldwide Firm-Level Evidence

JaeBin Ahn, Chan Kim, Nan Li and Andrea Manera

2024/151: A Suggested Medium-Term Fiscal Framework for Guyana

Rina Bhattacharya and Do Yeon Park

2024/150: Understanding Barriers to Financial Access: Insights from Bank Pricing Data

Kazuko Shirono, Berhe Beyene, Fozan Fareed, Christiaan Loots, Andrea Quevedo and Kameshnee Naidoo

2024/149: Distributional Impacts of Heterogenous Carbon Prices in the EU

Magnus Merkle and Geoffroy Dolphin

2024/148: A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

Francisco Dakila Jr., Dennis Bautista, Jasmin Dacio, Rosemarie Amodia, Sarah Jane Castañares, Paul Reimon Alhambra, Jan Christopher Ocampo, Charles John Marquez, Mark Rex Romaraog, Philippe Karam, Daniel Baksa and Jan Vlcek

2024/147: Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy

Dyna Heng, Fei Han, Sovanney Chey, Raksmey Uch, Dy Kuchsa and Pholla Phork

2024/146: Stepping Up Venture Capital to Finance Innovation in Europe

Nathaniel Arnold, Guillaume Claveres and Jan Frie

2024/145: Balancing Environmental, Fiscal, and Welfare Impacts of Transportation Decarbonization in France

Nate Vernon-Lin

2024/144: Climate Transition Risk and Financial Stability in France

Rachel Lee, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru and Xiaoxiao Zhang

2024/143: Bank Profits and Bank Taxes in the EU

Morgan Maneely and Lev Ratnovski

2024/142: Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay

Ruo Chen, Vincenzo Guzzo, Fazurin Jamaludin, Adil Mohommad, Ritong Qu and Yueshu Zhao

2024/141: A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones

Michele Fornino, Mahmut Kutlukaya, Caterina Lepore and Javier Uruñuela López

2024/140: A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg

Carlos de Resende, Alexandra Solovyeva and Moez Souissi

2024/139: The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade

Ibrahim Nana, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Sampawende Tapsoba

2024/138: Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier

Cristian Alonso and Margaux MacDonald

2024/137: Beyond Debt: Net Worth Fiscal Anchors

Hua Chai, Jason Harris and Alexander Tieman

2024/136: Unraveling the Wage-Output Disconnect: The Role of Labor Market Power

Melih Firat and Can Sever

2024/135: Firms’ Response to Climate Regulations-Empirical Investigations Based on the European Emissions Trading System

Fotios Kalantzis, Salma Khalid, Alexandra Solovyeva and Marcin Wolski

2024/134: The Catalytic Impact of IMF Lending on Official Development Assistance

Bangyu He, Phil Johnston and Agustin Velasquez

2024/133: Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight

Clemens Graf von Luckner, Robin Koepke and Silvia Sgherri

2024/132: The Diagnostic Financial Accelerator

Lahcen Bounader and Selim Elekdag

2024/131: Promise (Un)kept? Fintech and Financial Inclusion

Serhan Cevik

2024/130: Germany’s Foreign Direct Investment in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation

Kevin Fletcher, Veronika Grimm, Thilo Kroeger, Aiko Mineshima, Christian Ochsner, Andrea Presbitero, Paul Schmidt-Engelbertz and Jing Zhou

2024/129: Has the Transmission of US Monetary Policy Changed Since 2022?

Philip Barrett and Josef Platzer

2024/128: Drivers of Post-COVID Private Consumption in the U.S

Mai Dao, La-Bhus Jirasavetakul and Jing Zhou

2024/127: Escaping the Financial Dollarization Trap: The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Paul Castillo, Ruy Lama and Juan Medina

2024/126: A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo

Victor Musa, Bertrand Gilles Umba, Lewis Mambo, Jonas Kibala, Christian Kandolo, Josephine Mushiya, Yannick Luvezo, Jules Nsunda, Grégoire Lumbala, Yves Siasi, Serge Mfumukanda, Lubaki Ange, Kabata Olivier, Luc Shindano, Dyna Heng, Diego Rodriguez Guzman and Barna Szabo

2024/125: Green Fiscal Rules? Challenges and Policy Alternatives

Francesca Caselli, Andresa Lagerborg and Paulo Medas

2024/124: Post-pandemic Productivity Dynamics in the United States

Mai Dao and Josef Platzer

2024/123: A Conceptual Policy Framework for Leveraging Digitalization to Support Diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mame Astou Diouf, Leonardo Pio Perez, Felix Simione, Arina Viseth and Jiaxiong Yao

2024/122: The Price of De-Risking Reshoring, Friend-Shoring, and Quality Downgrading

Diego Cerdeiro, Parisa Kamali, Siddharth Kothari and Dirk Muir

2024/121: A Tale of Two Margins: Monetary Policy and Capital Misallocation

Silvia Albrizio, Beatriz Gonzalez and Dmitry Khametshin

2024/120: Sovereign Green Bonds: A Catalyst for Sustainable Debt Market Development?

Gong Cheng, Torsten Ehlers, Frank Packer and Yanzhe Xiao

2024/119: Cross-Border Payments Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean

Dimitris Drakopoulos, Yibin Mu, Dmitry Vasilyev and Mauricio Villafuerte

2024/118: Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts

Patrick Imam and Christian Schmieder

2024/117: Inequality in a More Equal World—Labor Market Gender Gaps in St. Lucia

Hyunmin Park and Swarnali Hannan

2024/116: Exposure to Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Mobility: A Cross-Country Analysis

Mauro Cazzaniga, Carlo Pizzinelli, Emma Rockall and Marina Tavares

2024/115: Monitoring Privately-held Firms' Default Risk in Real Time: A Signal-Knowledge Transfer Learning Model

Jorge Chan-Lau, Ruofei Hu, Luca Mungo, Ritong Qu, Weining Xin and Cheng Zhong

2024/114: Reinforcement Learning from Experience Feedback: Application to Economic Policy

Tohid Atashbar

2024/113: Policy Multipliers in Japan Under QQE

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

2024/112: Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict

Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo

2024/111: Do Renewables Shield Inflation from Fossil Fuel-Price Fluctuations?

Laurent Millischer, Chenxu Fu, Ulrich Volz and John Beirne

2024/110: Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach

Jiaxiong Yao

2024/109: Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe

Armand Fouejieu, Shakill Hassan, Ruben Atoyan and Yiran Zha

2024/108: Exploring the Role of Public Expenditure in Advancing Female Economic Empowerment and Gender Equality

Charla Britt and Danielle Egerer

2024/107: E-Commerce During COVID in Spain: One “Click” Does Not Fit All

Prachi Mishra, Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo, Antonio Spilimbergo and Sirenia Vazquez

2024/106: Hanging Out to Dry? Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Drought in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Kalin Tintchev and Laura Jaramillo

2024/105: Examining Price-Wage Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Uruguay

Pau Rabanal and M. Belen Sbrancia

2024/104: A Framework for Systemwide Liquidity Analysis

Xiaodan Ding, Dimitrios Laliotis and C. Priscilla Toffano

2024/103: New Perspectives on Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Capital Policies

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Roger McLeod, Romain Veyrune and Pawel Zabczyk

2024/102: Sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing: Chasing Elusive Sustainability

Ekaterina Gratcheva and Bryan Gurhy

2024/101: EMDE Central Bank Interventions during COVID-19 to Support Market Functioning

Kelly Eckhold, Julia Faltermeier, Darryl King, Istvan Mak and Dmitri Petrov

2024/100: Echoes Across Borders: Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Antonio David, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Markus Specht

2024/099: Forecasting Tail Risk via Neural Networks with Asymptotic Expansions

Yuji Sakurai and Zhuohui Chen

2024/098: Conflicts and Growth: The R&D Channel

Can Sever

2024/097: Intra-African Migration: Exploring the Role of Human Development, Institutions, and Climate Shocks

Désiré Kanga, Boileau Loko, Gomez Agou and Kangni Kpodar

2024/096: Challenges Facing SSNs in Emerging and Developing Economies

Fernanda Brollo, David Coady, Samir Jahan and Riki Matsumoto

2024/095: Strengthening Social Protection to Pave the Way for Technological Innovation: Evidence from the U.S

Fernanda Brollo

2024/094: The Impact of Reduced Commuting on Labor Supply and Household Welfare: A Post-Pandemic Analysis

Yi Ji, Myrto Oikonomou, Carlo Pizzinelli, Ippei Shibata and Marina Tavares

2024/093: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence

Ariadne Checo, Francesco Grigoli and Damiano Sandri

2024/092: Dominant Drivers of Current Account Dynamics

Lukas Boer and Jaewoo Lee

2024/091: At the Threshold: The Increasing Relevance of the Middle-Income Trap

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2024/090: The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia

Nordine Abidi, Mehdi El Herradi, Boriana Yontcheva and Ananta Dua

2024/089: Cash Flow Analysis of Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries

Thomas Benninger, Dan Devlin, Eduardo Camero Godinez and Nate Vernon-Lin

2024/088: Central Banks Casting a Global Financial Safety Net: What Drives the Supply of Bilateral Swaps?

Jakree Koosakul and Alexei Miksjuk

2024/087: Public Debt Dynamics and the Impact of Fiscal Policy

Nikhil Patel and Adrian Peralta

2024/086: The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy

Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov

2024/085: A Primer on Bitcoin Cross-Border Flows: Measurement and Drivers

Eugenio Cerutti, Jiaqian Chen and Martina Hengge

2024/084: Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean

Sophia Chen, Ryu Matsuura, Flavien Moreau and Joana Pereira

2024/083: How Vulnerable is Sub-Saharan Africa to Geoeconomic Fragmentation?

Marijn Bolhuis, Hamza Mighri, Henry Rawlings, Ivanova Reyes and Qianqian Zhang

2024/082: Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle

Luciana Juvenal and Ivan Petrella

2024/081: Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation?

Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé and Andrea Pescatori

2024/080: Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

Adrian Alter, Bashar Hlayhel, Thomas Kroen and Thomas Piontek

2024/079: This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation

Serhan Cevik and Gyowon Gwon

2024/078: Designing a Progressive VAT

Artur Swistak and Rita de la Feria

2024/077: The Power of Prices: How Fast Do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?

Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella, Ervin Prifti and Martin Stuermer

2024/076: Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?

Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea Presbitero and Petia Topalova

2024/075: Trade in Low Carbon Technologies: The Role of Climate and Trade Policies

Samuel Pienknagura

2024/074: Call of Duty: Industrial Policy for the Post-Oil Era

Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov and Madi Sarsenbayev

2024/073: Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers

Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé, Haroon Mumtaz and Pawel Zabczyk

2024/072: The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity

Claudio Raddatz, Dulani Seneviratne, Jerome Vandenbussche, Peichu Xie and Yizhi Xu

2024/071: Public Debt Dynamics During the Climate Transition

Daniel Garcia-Macia, Waikei Lam and Anh Nguyen

2024/070: Mobile Internet, Collateral, and Banking

Angelo D’Andrea, Patrick Hitayezu, Kangni Kpodar, Nicola Limodio and Andrea Presbitero

2024/069: E-Money and Monetary Policy Transmission

Zixuan Huang, Amina Lahreche, Mika Saito and Ursula Wiriadinata

2024/068: Cross-Border Impacts of Climate Policy Packages in North America

Jean-Marc Fournier, Tannous Kass-Hanna, Liam Masterson, Anne-Charlotte Paret and Sneha Thube