Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy

Dyna Heng, Fei Han, Sovanney Chey, Raksmey Uch, Dy Kuchsa and Pholla Phork

No 2024/147, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Assessing the current state of the economy and forecast the economic outlook in the next few quarters are important inputs for policymakers. This paper presents a suite of models with an integrated approach to forecast Cambodia’s economy in the current and next few quarters. First, we estimate historical quarterly GDP using information extracted from high-frequency indicators to construct quarterly nowcasting model. Second, we forecast current economic activities using a high-frequency data such as credit, export, tourist arrival, foreign reserves, and trading partner’s GDP. Third, we present inflation forecasting models for Cambodia. Fourth, the paper present a vector autoregression model to forecast Cambodia’s GDP in the next few quarters using global forecasts of China’s and US’s economy as well as oil and rice price. This paper showcase how high-frequency data set can be utilized in assessing current economic activities in countries with limited and lagged data.

Keywords: Nowcasting; Developing countries; Cambodia; near-term forecasting Cambodia's economy; high-frequency data set; Nowcasting GDP; inflation forecasting model; Cambodia's GDP; Inflation; Vector autoregression; Exports; Credit; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46
Date: 2024-07-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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