Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict

Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo

No 2024/112, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.

Keywords: conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2024-06-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-env
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=549951 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/112

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().