A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

Francisco Dakila Jr., Dennis Bautista, Jasmin Dacio, Rosemarie Amodia, Sarah Jane Castañares, Paul Reimon Alhambra, Jan Christopher Ocampo, Charles John Marquez, Mark Rex Romaraog, Philippe Karam, Daniel Baksa and Jan Vlcek

No 2024/148, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.

Keywords: Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Macroprudential Policies; policy analysis; asset price increase; endogenous monetary policy; parameter categorization; validation method; potential GDP; Inflation; Output gap; Real interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Credit; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 116
Date: 2024-07-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mon and nep-sea
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