A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones

Michele Fornino, Mahmut Kutlukaya, Caterina Lepore and Javier Uruñuela López

No 2024/141, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The study provides forward-looking estimates for economic damages from floods and tropical cyclones (TC) for a wide range of countries using global datasets. Damages are estimated for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and aggregated at the country level, building them from geographically disaggregated estimates of hazard severity and economic exposures across 183 countries. The results show that, for most countries, floods and TC’s damage rates increase (i) during the estimation span of 2020 to 2100, and (ii) with more severe global warming scenarios. In line with other global studies, expected floods and TCs damages are unevenly distributed across the world. The estimates can be used for a wide range of applications, as damage rates represent the key variable connecting climate scenarios to economics and financial sector risk analysis.

Keywords: Climate change; Forward-looking climate projections; Climate scenario analysis; Economic losses; Damage functions; Tropical Cyclones; Floods; damage rate; Tcs damage; damage function; rate relative; Natural disasters; Global; Southeast Asia; South America; East Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45
Date: 2024-07-09
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