Policy Multipliers in Japan Under QQE

Sam Ouliaris and Celine Rochon

No 2024/113, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper tests whether Japan's key macro policy multipliers have declined since 2013, the year that Japan introduced Qualitative and Quantitative Easing. We use the augmented Blanchard-Perotti structural VAR model introduced in Ouliaris and Rochon (2021) to study the dynamic effects of shocks in the central bank’s asset holdings, interest rates, and debt levels relative to GDP on economic activity in Japan. We find that both the expenditure and tax multipliers of Japan have fallen, implying that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Japan declined following the change in monetary policy. Moreover, we find that the efficacy of quantitative easing is small, implying the need for huge interventions to have a significant effect on real GDP, and that the effectiveness of quantitative easing has declined since 2013. We argue that the reduction in policy multipliers can be attributed to the upward trend in the government debt level relative to GDP which, despite historically low interest rates, has increased Japan’s structural deficit, and the likelihood of reduced expenditures and higher taxes going forward.

Keywords: fiscal multipliers; structural VAR; policy multiplier; debt multiplier; tax multiplier; effectiveness of quantitative easing; QQE multiplier; Tax expenditures; Real interest rates; Central bank balance sheet (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14
Date: 2024-06-07
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