IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2017/069: Managing the Tide: How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?

Atish Ghosh, Jonathan Ostry and Mahvash Qureshi

2017/068: How is the likelihood of fire sales in a crisis affected by the interaction of various bank regulations?

Divya Kirti and Vijay Narasiman

2017/067: Credit-Supply Shocks and Firm Productivity in Italy

Sebastian Dörr, Mehdi Raissi and Anke Weber

2017/066: Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis

Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi and Anke Weber

2017/065: Does Prolonged Monetary Policy Easing Increase Financial Vulnerability?

Stephen Cecchetti, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli and Machiko Narita

2017/064: Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Policy Performance

Moussé Sow and Ivohasina Razafimahefa

2017/063: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in a Small Open Economy: Estimates of Tax and Spending Multipliers in Paraguay

Antonio David

2017/062: Lower Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates

Christian Grisse, Signe Krogstrup and Silvio Schumacher

2017/061: Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?

Marco Bernardini and Lorenzo Forni

2017/060: Bank Ownership: Trends and Implications

Robert Cull, Maria Martinez Peria and Jeanne Verrier

2017/059: Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality: The case of Low-Income and Developing Countries

Margarita Rubio and Filiz Unsal

2017/058: Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?

Daniel Leigh, Weicheng Lian, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Rachel Szymanski, Viktor Tsyrennikov and Hong Yang

2017/057: Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty: An Invariant Set Approach

Rossen Rozenov

2017/056: Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

Joseph Gagnon, Tamim Bayoumi, Juan M. Londono, Christian Saborowski and Horacio Sapriza

2017/055: Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist

Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen

2017/054: Labor Force Participation in Chile: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

Patrick Blagrave and Marika Santoro

2017/053: Pension Reform Options in Chile: Some Tradeoffs

Marika Santoro

2017/052: The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis

Swarnali Hannan

2017/051: Brazilian Market Portfolio

Cristina Tessari and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2017/050: Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields

Carlos Góes, Herman Kamil, Phil De Imus, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Roberto Perrelli, Shaun Roache and Jeremy Zook

2017/049: Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks

Nooman Rebei

2017/048: Understanding Inflation in Malawi: A Quantitative Investigation

Dong Frank Wu

2017/047: Trade Liberalization in Peru: Adjustment Costs Amidst High Labor Mobility

Elin Baldárrago and Gonzalo Salinas

2017/046: Revisiting the Link between Trade, Growth and Inequality: Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean

Kimberly Beaton, Aliona Cebotari and András Komáromi

2017/045: The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method

Swarnali Hannan

2017/044: Effects of Timeliness on the Trade Pattern between Primary and Processed Goods

Suprabha Baniya

2017/043: Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World

Valerie Cerra and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

2017/042: Composition of Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean

Xiaodan Ding and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

2017/041: The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants

Maria Sole Pagliari and Swarnali Hannan

2017/040: Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy

Alessandro Cantelmo and Giovanni Melina

2017/039: Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say?

Sanjeev Gupta, Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Michela Schena

2017/038: Banks, Firms, and Jobs

Fabio Berton, Sauro Mocetti, Andrea Presbitero and Matteo Richiardi

2017/037: A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

Jiri Podpiera, Faezeh Raei and Ara Stepanyan

2017/036: What has happened to Sub-Regional Public Sector Efficiency in England since the Crisis?

Samya Beidas-Strom

2017/035: The Growth Return of Infrastructure in Latin America

Sergi Lanau

2017/034: Women at Work in Latin America and the Caribbean

Natalija Novta and Joyce Wong

2017/033: Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties

Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Pranav Gupta, Joice John, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Rafael Portillo, Hou Wang and Fan Zhang

2017/032: Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Joice John, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Hou Wang and Fan Zhang

2017/031: What Influences Bank Lending in Saudi Arabia?

Ken Miyajima

2017/030: Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade: The Impact of Localized Supply Shocks Using Network Analysis

Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Magali Pinat and Brian Dew

2017/029: Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment

Gustavo Adler, Nicolas Magud and Alejandro Werner

2017/028: Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market

Yinqiu Lu and Dmitry Yakovlev

2017/027: The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Closer Look at the Case of Bolivia

Frederik Toscani

2017/026: What’s Different about Bank Holding Companies?

Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, Jun Ma and Celine Rochon

2017/025: Currency Wars or Efficient Spillovers? A General Theory of International Policy Cooperation

Anton Korinek

2017/024: Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe

Michal Andrle, Vladimír Tomšík and Jan Vlcek

2017/023: Household Consumption in Japan – Role of Income and Asset Developments

Erkki Vihriälä

2017/022: Curbing Corporate Debt Bias

Ruud de Mooij and Shafik Hebous

2017/021: Czech Magic: Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB

Kevin Clinton, Tibor Hlédik, Tomas Holub, Douglas Laxton and Hou Wang

2017/020: International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities in FSGM

Stephen Snudden

2017/019: Financial Deepening in Mexico

Alexander Herman and Alexander Klemm

2017/018: Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area

Luc Eyraud, Vitor Gaspar and Tigran Poghosyan

2017/017: Corporate Restructuring and Its Macro Effects

Jongsoon Shin

2017/016: Risk Taking and Interest Rates: Evidence from Decades in the Global Syndicated Loan Market

Seung Jung Lee, Lucy Qian Liu and Viktors Stebunovs

2017/015: Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Rabah Arezki, Zoltán Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang and Jiaxiong Yao

2017/014: Money and Credit: Theory and Applications

Liang Wang, Randall Wright and Lucy Qian Liu

2017/013: What Are Reference Rates For?

Divya Kirti

2017/012: Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil

Ivo Krznar and Troy Matheson

2017/011: The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention: The Case of Brazil

Milan Nedeljkovic and Christian Saborowski

2017/010: Collect More, Spend Better: Public Investment in Asian Frontier Markets

Manuk Ghazanchyan, Ricardo Marto, Jiri Jonas and Kaitlyn Douglass

2017/009: Price and Wage Flexibility in Hong Kong SAR

Si Guo

2017/008: Optimal Tax Administration

Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod

2017/007: Indian Financial Sector: Structure, Trends and Turns

Rakesh Mohan and Partha Ray

2017/006: Fiscal Rules to Tame the Political Budget Cycle: Evidence from Italian Municipalities

Lorenzo Forni and Andrea Bonfatti

2017/005: On the Determinants of Fiscal Non-Compliance: An Empirical Analysis of Spain’s Regions

Mar Delgado-Téllez, Victor Lledo and Javier Pérez

2017/004: How Buoyant is the Tax System? New Evidence from a Large Heterogeneous Panel

Paolo Dudine and Joao Jalles

2017/003: Why Do Bank-Dependent Firms Bear Interest-Rate Risk?

Divya Kirti

2017/002: Korea’s Challenges Ahead—Lessons from Japan’s Experience

Edda Zoli

2017/001: Benefits of Global and Regional Financial Integration in Latin America

Luc Eyraud, Diva Singh and Bennett Sutton

2016/255: Strategic Corporate Layoffs

Ruchir Agarwal and Julian Kolev

2016/254: Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through: Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database

Kangni Kpodar and Chadi Abdallah

2016/253: Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics

Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea Presbitero and Antonio Bassanetti

2016/252: Capital Account Openness in Low-income Developing Countries: Evidence from a New Database

Sarwat Jahan and Daili Wang

2016/251: Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

Sophia Chen and Romain Ranciere

2016/250: Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Fan Zhang and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

2016/249: China’s Rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and Growth: Firm-level Evidence

Hui He, Nan Li and Jing Fang

2016/248: Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive the Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus

Sophia Chen and Yinqiu Lu

2016/247: Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Policy Implications

C. Emre Alper, Niko Hobdari and Ali Uppal

2016/246: Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Luca Ricci

2016/245: The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality

Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

2016/244: Inequality and Growth: A Heterogeneous Approach

Francesco Grigoli, Evelio Paredes and C. Di Bella

2016/243: Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions

Adrian Alter and Selim Elekdag

2016/242: Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms in Asian Pension Systems?

Elif Arbatli Saxegaard, Csaba Feher, Jack Ree, Ikuo Saito and Mauricio Soto

2016/241: Output and Inflation Co-movement: An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts

Michal Andrle, Jan Bruha and Serhat Solmaz

2016/240: Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Bertrand Gruss, Nicolas Magud and Fabian Valencia

2016/239: A Tale of Transition: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China, 1986–2009

Haiyan Ding and Hui He

2016/238: The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity

Shekhar Aiyar and Christian Ebeke

2016/237: The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan

Niklas Westelius and Yihan Liu

2016/236: Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections: An Application to Ecuador

Francesco Grigoli, Mario Mansilla and Martin Saldias

2016/235: Real Effects of Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets

Deniz Igan, Ali Kutan and Ali Mirzaei

2016/234: Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?

Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo and Philippe Wingender

2016/233: Political Institutions, State Building, and Tax Capacity: Crossing the Tipping Point

Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo and Philippe Wingender

2016/232: Minimum Wage as a Wage Policy Tool in Japan

Chie Aoyagi, Giovanni Ganelli and Nour Tawk

2016/231: System Priors for Econometric Time Series

Michal Andrle and Miroslav Plašil

2016/230: Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?

Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and José Tavares

2016/229: Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU: Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact

Kimberly Beaton, Alla Myrvoda and Shernnel Thompson

2016/228: Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Sylwia Nowak and Pratiti Chatterjee

2016/227: The Influence of Gender Budgeting in Indian States on Gender Inequality and Fiscal Spending

Janet Stotsky and Asad Zaman

2016/226: A Balancing Act: Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law

Antonio David and Natalija Novta

2016/225: Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?

Anne Oeking and Mariusz Sumlinski