A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay

Rafael Portillo and Yulia Ustyugova

No 2015/170, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Uruguay has recently reverted to a money targeting (MT) framework in the context of a disinflation strategy. We develop a quantitative model for monetary policy analysis incorporating money targets in the policy framework while also retaining a central role for interest rates in the transmission of policy. We use the model to show that tight financial conditions for a period may be necessary for inflation to converge to the middle of the target band. We also discuss various aspects of the MT framework. Two issues stand out. Excessive focus on hitting money targets can result in undesirable changes in the policy stance; while targets that incorporate elements of money demand forecasting are superior to targets that are excessively smooth or do not adjust for base effects.

Keywords: WP; money demand; monetary policy; exchange rate; Money Targeting; Forecasting; money target; money growth; core CPI inflation; output stabilization; monetary policy shock; interest rate target; yoy inflation dynamics; inflation path; inflation tradeoff; inflation stabilization process; peso interest rates; overnight interest rate; Inflation; Demand for money; Real exchange rates; Real interest rates; Exchange rates; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2015-07-23
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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