Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Serkan Arslanalp, Marco Marini and Patrizia Tumbarello

No 2019/275, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Keywords: WP; AIS data; trade statistics; cargo load indicator; trade activity; trade data; port call data; Trade balance; Trade in goods; Imports; Big data; Exports; Global; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2019-12-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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