Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances

Tamim Bayoumi, Joseph Gagnon and Christian Saborowski

No 2014/199, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We use a cross-country panel framework to analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts. We find that net official flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances. The estimated effects are larger with instrumental variables (42 cents to the dollar on average compared to 24 without instruments), reflecting a possible downward bias in regressions without instruments owing to an endogenous response of net official flows to private financial flows. We consistently find larger impacts of net official flows when international capital flows are restricted and smaller impacts when capital is highly mobile. A further result is that there is an important positive effect of lagged net official flows on current accounts that we believe operates through the portfolio balance channel.

Keywords: WP; capital mobility; official flow; BOP fin.; financial market; reserve accumulation; intervention; stock effect; BOP fin; asset stock; current account adjustment; Current account; Stocks; Current account balance; Exchange rates; Current account deficits; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45
Date: 2014-10-30
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Official financial flows, capital mobility, and global imbalances (2015)
Working Paper: Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances (2014)
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