Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy

Daniel Garcia-Macia

No 2020/038, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The recovery of private investment in Italy has lagged its euro area peers over the past decade. This paper examines the role of elevated labor costs in hindering the recovery. Specifically, labor costs rose faster than labor productivity prior to the global financial crisis and have remained high since, weighing on firms’ profits, capital returns, and thus capacity to invest. Empirical analysis provides evidence for the impact of wages on investment at the sectoral and firm levels. Sectoral wage growth seems unrelated to sectoral productivity growth, but is negatively associated with investment. Firm-level data permit a better identification—by exploiting the interaction between sectoral wage growth (exogenous to the firm) and the lagged labor share of the firm. A 1 percent increase in real wages is estimated to cause a 1/3 percent fall in fixed capital. Profits absorb only ½ of the cost increase, pointing to the role of liquidity constraints. These results highlight the need for labor market reform to reinvigorate investment, and thus labor productivity and job creation.

Keywords: WP; firm; regression model; cash flow; wage growth; firm level; size group; indexes firm; labor share; firms in the South; panel regression model; Labor costs; Wages; Labor share; Wage adjustments; Minimum wages; Global; corporate investment; capital returns; corporate profitability; panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2020-02-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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