Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo and A. Spence

No 2025/156, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades. This descriptive study analyzes tradable and nontradable sectoral trends, with our findings demonstrating that the share of tradable sector employment and, within it, manufacturing employment, leveled off in the decade following the GFC after declining for several decades. Still, by 2023, the nontradable sector accounted for a large majority of employment and real value added. At the same time, the tradable sector exhibited robust productivity growth of nearly 3 percent, juxtaposed against far lower 0.7 percent growth in nontradable sectors. This marked divergence raises concerns regarding inequality and the sustainability of economic growth.

Keywords: structural change; productivity; tradable; nontradable; productivity trend; nontradable sector; growth contribution; productivity sector; labor productivity trend; productivity level; direct labor productivity growth; productivity performance; tradable labor productivity; muted productivity growth; productivity surge; Labor productivity; Employment; Manufacturing; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55
Date: 2025-08-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff
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