Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and Juan Angel Garcia

No 2018/147, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Keywords: WP; inflation expectation; price inflation; inflation dynamics; trend inflation estimate; Phillips curve; monetary policy; inflation expectations; ASEAN countries; import inflation; Inflation; Oil prices; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks; Import prices; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 2018-06-21
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies (2018)
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